ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, CRAIGVILLE BEACH

FIRST RACE

SAME KINDA CRAZY an infrequent winner and likely best on turf, but she has faced better in her last two starts on the main track and was chasing wide against a strong rail when second at the end of September at Belmont; has run races on dirt that would give her a chance in a spot like this. TIED UP the horse to beat shipping back to the circuit after going to Finger Lakes to find her form; has made five starts over NYRA tracks in her career without coming close, several of those at short prices. SUMMER PUNCH exits a win over the kind of off track she likes two weeks ago, but she doesn’t need it to be wet to be effective; big threat right back in this spot.

SECOND RACE

CAPTAIN FROST debuted over a wet track and looked green early while getting into some traffic and wound up being shuffled back early, before appearing to get out a bit on the turn when clear; drops from a nice outside post for a trainer who excels with second time starters. COOLBOY also dropping for his second career start after showing brief speed and fading behind a blowout winner; maidens making their second start has historically been a strong angle for this trainer, though it hasn’t been as effective lately. BETTOR BANK

ON IT the one with the best race to point to, as he returned from a short layoff to show speed and just hold on to the wire vs. maiden claimers last month, only to be disqualified for interference; steps back up.

THIRD RACE

THEODOSIA has gone 0-10 while concentrating on turf this year, though there have been some legit excuses for her along the way; lone dirt start this year came going longer at Saratoga where she cut the pace vs. a pair of better horses, and she posted both career wins last year around a one-turn mile on dirt. SHAPE SHIFTER has hit the exacta in six of her seven career starts on dirt and most recently was claimed out of her 3rd win at Indiana Downs and turned over to Rudy; has the speed and versatility to pull a good trip from her rail draw. ORCHID

PARTY easily won a slow race two starts back then stepped up in price off the claim and had a short lead in the late stages before getting outfinished; gets in one final start vs. straight 3yo claimers looking for her fifth win of the year.

FOURTH RACE

MIDNIGHT SKY caught a sloppy track for her return from the layoff and broke slowly before failing to make an impression; returns quickly to try again and she has back races against better horses to suggest that she can contend here at a price if she can get a trip. LOLLI made her main track debut two starts back on a class drop and gamely prevailed late with a competitive figure; was unprepared for the start last time and was eased off by her rider from a long way out in an effort that can be forgiven. MAZMANIA has had her chances already and isn’t easy to take at the ML price but she tends to show up with a race that fits at this level.

FIFTH RACE

CHRONOS making belated debut for a hot trainer after working 10.1 at Fasig-Tipton back in May and being purchased for a modest $35k; sire has quietly become a solid early influence and this dam, while managing only a pair of wins in claiming races in California, became a two-time group stakes winner when sent to Puerto Rico to race on dirt. RUNNING VIOLENCE debuting cheap considering his pedigree as his sire, Violence, is off to a very good start with his 2yos and his dam is a sister to multiple graded stakes winners Pure Clan and Greater Good; barn has had a strong year with their 2yos. GALLANT BID is drawn down inside with a bug rider named but is eligible to be quick as a son of A Sea Trippi, who won multiple stakes sprinting on dirt on her career.

SIXTH RACE

COTTON CANDY CUTIE couldn’t hold on over a mile after making the pace in her return from a short layoff last time but she may hold an advantage over this field at the distance as a four-time route winner; projects to be forwardly placed once again, but doesn’t need the lead to be effective. VIP NATION VIP NATION may be a bit better on turf but she handles dirt and 76 Beyer she earned two starts back suggests that she can be tough in this spot, though she was given a very good trip in that race while saving all the ground. TIMELY

TRADITION is six for 11 in her career on dirt and has won three of her last four on the main track, with the lone loss coming by a head in a stakes race; distance the big question.

SEVENTH RACE

BEACHSIDE looked good rallying from out of it for 2nd in each of his first two dirt starts, then ran his best race while keeping in range over this distance and closing down big next-out winner Not That Brady to break his maiden; got too far back behind the talented Le General last time and was once again finishing up too late. SOUTHERN KING ran well in each of his first two starts for his prior trainer, then stepped up and ran a faster race when also unable to get to Le General last time; nice fit here if he can keep heading in that direction. NOT THAT BRADY improved noticeably when closed down late by BEACHSIDE after setting a legit pace two starts back then blew out maidens last time in a race that came back very fast; want to see some confirmation for that figure but there is no denying that he is going to be tough here if he can come right back with another effort like that.

EIGHTH RACE

CRAIGVILLE BEACH was no factor in a couple of MSW races that were rained off the turf in his first two starts, and he was beaten over 10 lengths when dropped to this level last time, though he did not have a great trip in that race when in behind horses early and shuffled back, before finishing up with some interest late. TAPTAPTAP also dropped to this level last time and turned back in distance, and he chased a good pace all the way before weakening late and just missing 2nd; projects to land in a nice trip here with a couple of confirmed speeds signed on. GRAMMI DANCE gave way as the favorite in a disappointing effort at this level last time but he is clearly going to be tough if bouncing back with an effort more like his first attempt in this condition when earning a 59 Beyer in a narrow defeat; good post outside the other speeds.