ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SHAREHOLDER VALUE

FIRST RACE

VIN FOR THE WIN is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam went 10-2-1-3 on the grass and earned 115K. This is her first foal to try the green. This gelding beat zero home in his debut at Parx but that was a none too easy distance at 7 panels. Plus, he got what he needed in race experience. He is bred to like the grass and we like that Ortiz gets a leg up. Palm Meadows works should have him fully acclimated to South Florida. CHANDLER’S DRAMA did little in his debut and then ran like it all at 71-1. Now he drops in class with two works in tow. His grass breeding is OK and we see a big move forward second time everything. FUTURE TREASURE ran well on this sod as recently as three back. His most recent was a Beyer top. This post is no help and he is cross entered for a race on Wednesday.

SECOND RACE

LNGTERMRELATIONSHP has never missed the exacta on this dirt even if the sample size is small. His turf breeding is marginal at best yet he was only a length back with a furlong to go in his recent turf start. We surmise that this gelding just likes it here and that his return to the dirt moves him up another notch or two. We spy more than a few with some speed in here so the pace should be fair for this stalker/closer. HAIL TO THE KING is a bit of an X factor. Double layoff lines and 190K sales price while in for 30K are the reasons. He does exit a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 70 and 49 (another returned to finish 2nd with a 65 Beyer). The Servis barn is a solid 22% off a long layoff. Why only four listed works? FOR THE GIPPER has some speed and did break his maiden on this dirt. The jock switch to Gaffalione is telling as he is 37% for this barn.

THIRD RACE

PERSONAL TIME puts the blinkers ON and that is a 25% move for this barn. He is a full to Orb who earned over 2.6mm. Works are perfect and this colt draws nicely for the distance. TAPABILITY is royally bred. Priority sire in Tapit while dam won over 2.6mm. Lots and lots of works for his second start. If this colt got a 61 Beyer in his debut and that was over 11 months ago then how much faster is he now? ROAD TO MEATH has run well in three of four career starts. He has some tactical speed to help with this rail draw. Few if any are better off a long layoff than Chad Brown. If we had to knock something other than the rail draw at this distance it is that this colt has lost twice as the favorite. Yea, not much.

FOURTH RACE

FROZEN HANNAH is stuck way outside but that is it for the knocks. We really like her local debut in her last start. She was marooned in the 11 hole that day and didn’t get much pace to chase but still managed to finish a nice second at almost 10-1. She has a recent work and it was 2nd best of 32. The Becker barn is 31% second off this long a layoff. PILLANGO is back home where he has hit the exacta in 6 of 13 starts. His stalking style and inside post should make for a good trip. He seems more than capable when fresh. PRADO VISION gets some class relief. He has done all of his winning on this sod. Race flow is fine as is this inside post.

FIFTH RACE

FRENCH ACCENT is still improving as a lightly raced, newly minted, 5YO. Elongated sprints and one turn miles are his forte and that fits with today’s 6 1/2 furlongs. We like this post, form cycle, and jock switch. Let’s move on then. DR HARLAN is a 7YO that has only started eight times. That means he has to make the most of what starts he gets. He is feeling good. His last race came back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of

59 and 68. ARTIST got a nice confidence boost last out when beating a ho hum field at 7/5. What if this gelding just didn’t care for a dry GPW? This barn is 25% with their repeating winners.

SIXTH RACE

BORANDA catches a race light on pace. She comes in fresh and that should sharpen her tactical speed. We aren’t saying that she is the speed but rather that she can stalk soft splits and save a lot for her stretch run. Plus, she is a turf sprint specialist that loves this sod. GRACIAS ADIOS did win gate to wire 2 and 3 back. She gets in light and draws outside where she can press any inside speed. OR she could just clear off early and get that all important early breather. Local tab is fine and this barn is 27% in turf sprints. MISS HELEN might offer some value. We think that she does like it here while only local turf try was a while ago going long versus tons better. She is actually bred to like the green. Current form is poor but that is why you are going to get a good price and she does have a recent bullet work.

SEVENTH RACE

CHATIMENT ran great the last two times that he caught a dry local dirt. His work tab is what we like best as it is perfect. We think the time off is actually a good thing. GUNS OF STEEL goes second time this barn and drops in class. Second time this dirt can’t hurt. Of course Jaramillo rides for Navarro. ROYAL HOLIDAY is better of late and has won twice on this dirt. A one turn mile is a good fit and Gaffalione stays put.

EIGHTH RACE

THORPE D’ORO is a new turf horse coming off a long layoff. We like that connections want the grass for his return. First time gelding is working well and finds a reasonable spot for his return. Now for the bad news: this barn is 0 for 19 with Ortiz up and 0 for 14 off a long layoff. GEYSER is a lightly raced gelding that took a shot at the hurdles but since it didn’t work out returns here. He is still bred to like the grass and we are encouraged that Saez gets a leg up. C’ERA UNA VOLTA is by a 17% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. Two of four sibs won on the grass with another having hit the board (other only tried it once). The colt has worked three times since his most recent and that try was better. This colt should love the grass.

NINTH RACE

SHAREHOLDER VALUE is proven around two turns and hails from a barn that is 31% off this type of layoff. We think he is feeling great. That was a solid 40K field at Keeneland that he beat only two back. Then he gets stuck in the 10 hole at CD where he is denied an early breather but still hangs on to third at over 8-1. He gets good race flow today with Ortiz up (36% J/T). BIBLICAL did cost 800K. We like that he has worked twice since his most recent. He seems to prefer two turns. Not sure what happened last out but more than willing to trust in Pletcher. TIZ MISCHIEF often runs best off a layoff. His only local try was versus graded foes and this colt finished third. He comes in fresh and ready and for a jockey that knows this colt well.

TENTH RACE

INDURATE knows nothing but the turf and we like that. It helps that his turf breeding is good. Work tab is solid for this first time gelding. Class drop hints at the money run. DING DONG DITCH has some turf tries on his resume that fit here. That Saratoga turf try three back wins this if duplicated. Class drop can’t be helped. Main knock is the gap in works from November 26th to December 24. VENEZUELA is by a 15% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in her only turf start. Lone grass sib is 1-0-0-0. This 300K gelding has tried 7 panels in both starts and that is tough off a layoff or debut. He beat a few home both times. Maybe what he needs is two turns on the grass. One of four runners that cost more than 150K but is in for 20K. GOLDEN CHALLENGE exits a key race where 3 of 11 returned to win with figs of 80, 82, and 83. WISELY is interesting and in our supers.