ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SON OF ELEANOR

FIRST RACE

MON MOUSSE is the best inside speed and that is key as the first turn comes up quickly at today’s flat mile. Arrieta isn’t the leading rider for nothing and one of his attributes is that he is a good gate rider. This gelding is a hard trier in general and seems to like this dirt. Now throw in the leading barn and you have the favorite. TOCCET’S CHARM figures a nice ground saving trip. If the 7 can soften up our top pick then this guy’s chances improve. His penchant for second on this track is tough to explain. Maybe a jock switch can help shake things up today. SIR MATADOR figures a nice trip off the two speeds. We spy a new barn today and they are 26% off the claim. Recent figs are solid.

SECOND RACE

DREAMY GAL ran well in three of her last four grass starts and they all came at Santa Anita. Her lone poor effort, 4 back, was due to half mile split of 45 and change and never getting any kind of a breather. There is some other speed in here but this mare is the best speed. Recent dirt stakes was solid and really think that Stevens is a good fit for this mare. SIERRITA just ran great. She has won on this sod before. Race flow is fine. She was rank two back so that poor effort is easily explained. WITHIN THE LAW gets a big jockey switch to Arrieta. Local tab is solid and this mare can pass runners. Is she quicker than our top pick? If Arrieta were to really send then maybe but no one wins a speed duel except the stalkers and closers.

THIRD RACE

RAGING LADY ran well in her only local start and it came in her debut which bodes well for today’s off the layoff start. There is good pace in this race so this mare’s stalking trip should be best. A new barn is part of the mix and we like their work tab for this 5YO mare. TOP LADY MARGIE has a penchant for less. She gets off the rail and drops in class. That try two back would fit nicely in this spot. Plus, she wants to pass runners. WRIGHT WINGED will try and be the speed of the speed. She really hasn’t run a poor one in her short career. We don’t see a recent work. If you told us

that she could pass runners then we would have picked her higher.

FOURTH RACE

HOUSE OF CHANCE is just better around two turns so we are going to discount those sprint tries 1 and 3 back. That two turn try two back was solid and he did get a 53 Beyer speed figure. He seems to like at real dirt surface as his record is 5-1-0-1 (Beyer top of 63). Here is the good part: this gelding draws inside, has speed, and goes for a barn that is 1 for 1 off the claim in their short career. We even like Cruz up as we think he was chosen to expressly put this gelding on the front end. HOUDINI HILL did not fire last out and we don’t know why. That last race didn’t have much or any pace in it yet this gelding was over 9 lengths back at the first call. Now connections want two turns. This guy has won 3 times at a flat mile. Last race stinker should help today’s pace. SUPER ECHELON comes in off a short freshening and has won routing before. He figures a nice trip off the speeds. Those $8,500 foes 2 and 3 back are simply better than these.

FIFTH RACE

HIPPLEPOTOMUS won nicely two back and did so against better. He tried for the front end last out when trying tons better and it just didn’t work out. Now he drops in class and shortens up a full furlong. SIR VALENTINE is 1 for 1 at a shortened sprint. That was a nice confidence bump last out. Few are better with runners winning back to back than Diodoro. BRICKHOUSE might show some speed from his rail draw. Those efforts two and three back are solid. Not sure what happened last out with the leading rider up. This gelding often takes a lot of money.

SIXTH RACE

GO YOUR OWN WAY exits the key common race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 58 and 62. Wait, there’s more: three others returned to finish second with Beyer speed figures of 63, 55, and 61. This gelding probably bounced in said race. Win rider returns in Arrieta and this gelding returns to a shortened sprint. Trainer stats are solid across the board. CAUSE FOR EVICTION is fresh speed and that is our favorite kind of speed. He draws fine and has a great work tab. Can this jock send hard? SUTTER is feeling good and has settled in here nicely. Versatile style is always appreciated. Hebert is settling in here nicely also.

SEVENTH RACE

I’M FOCUSED is feeling good...no great. Did he beat much last out? No he did not but we still like how he won. We don’t think that win took much out of him either. Connections waste little time finding him another spot. GIRO CANDITO isn’t a two turn animal so we say he needed that race two back on the turf. His most recent was better. Before the long layoff, he was facing SoCal foes. He doesn’t get a ton of pace to chase but his upside is better than all. DARRENATOR sheds the blinkers for new barn. He does have three recent works. Maybe his route speed will come in handy in this spot as there isn’t much zip in here. A good spot to get Don Lee French his first win at the meet.

EIGHTH RACE

SON OF ELEANOR is a horse for course on this sod. Last race fractions a bit too fast for this 7YO gelding. New barn is 33% off the claim and they love to use Stevens. We appreciate that this guy has a recent work. This post is no help but his tactical speed helps there. BOURQUE is versatile. He had to work hard to find the front end last out but then got a soft second split which helped him almost steal the race. He can stalk quite easily. Then again he draws inside. To gun or not to gun that is the question. He exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 74 and 80. PACIFIC NIGHTS might need this race but that doesn’t change the fact that he is one of our favorites. He has won 7 times on this sod. This barn knows him well. Works are perfect. Race flow is solid. RAOFTHESUN exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 78 and 79.