ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PRIVATE JOKE

FIRST RACE

TIMBERFALLER draws inside and catches a race with little pace. Hello front end and hello winner’s circle. BOLD CHARMANT tries this shortened sprint distance for the first time and that is a bit worrisome. Current form is solid and this colt responds well to Scott Stevens. LIL BIT OF THUNDER is stuck a bit outside but does have some speed. If the rail runner doesn’t send then you can count on Arrieta having this gelding out front early. Jockey/trainer combo is a healthy 31% and they show a flat bet profit.

SECOND RACE

MY EXPRESSION got first Lasix last out and tried a flat mile for the first time and the results were eye opening. Yep, that was a Beyer top. The front end is wide open today and we expect Scott Stevens to take full advantage of it. TRULY UNUSUAL has won 11 times in 27 local starts. Wow. This 9YO has won two of her last three. Her favorite distance is today’s flat mile. Does she get enough pace to chase though? DONTTELLMYHUSBAND just ran better and it came with Arrieta up. Once again, this mare doesn’t get much pace help. Second time with this jock and the switch to the dirt could help.

THIRD RACE

JORDYNSLUMBERJAK drops in class, goes third off the layoff, and has worked twice since her most recent. She has tactical speed and draws inside but isn’t stuck on the rail. BUDDUG was stuck on the rail last out and maybe that hurt. Class drop is big but maybe more so is the jock switch to Arrieta who is 28% for team Metz. We wouldn’t be shocked if this filly showed some speed in this spot. STORMS A BREWN just broke her maiden even though she was buried on the rail going 6 1/2 furlongs and never got a breather in the race. She certainly likes it here. She cuts back a full furlong and faces first time winners but her speed remains. Curious as to price.

FOURTH RACE

MISTY SLEW was facing SoCal foes not that long

ago. Her last few are solid even though they were on the turf. She isn’t bred to like that surface you know. The Ramgeet/Ramgeet pairing has done quite well in the last month. Turf to dirt is 0 for 7 for this barn but that sample size is small. We think they have found a great spot. SETTLE DOWN

EILEEN is another turf to dirt runner. The last time this mare tried the dirt it was an off the turf affair at Canterbury and this mare won by 6 1/2 lengths. What if she is just better on the dirt? She has worked three times since her most recent and now goes third off the layoff. JANE’S REVENGE tries winners for the first time but does so with Arrieta up. Second time routing can only help. This filly sends, right? Team Metz is 23% off the claim and they show a flat bet profit.

FIFTH RACE

GATOR DON’T PLAY just ran better and looks to be setting in nicely here. We love that recent bullet work. Hebert gets a leg up and he is 3 for 9 for this barn. The 3 and 7 provide the pace in this race. SIR KOWBOY is the best inside speed. A small shot to clear off and get a breather. Distance tab at 3-0-0-0 is a bit scary. This is the morning line favorite? We would insist on a better price than 7/5. IMALOCOMOTIVE drops in class and that is the main calling card. This barn is 1 for 1 turf to dirt. Is six furlongs too short? Why does Arrieta ride the rail runner?

SIXTH RACE

PRIVATE JOKE just didn’t look like he liked that muddy track in his last start. He adds a full furlong today and Arrieta keeps the faith. This gelding turns around quickly as if his most recent didn’t take that much out of him. Race flow is fine as is this outside post. LONDON LEGACY draws the attack post, has speed, loves this distance, and is in good form. Hello favorite. STORMY TEEN has speed and draws inside main pace foes. He should hold the rail. He adds a full furlong and that should help his front end plans. His distance tab of 19-74-3 is quite nice. Stevens/Schnell is hitting at 36% this meet.

SEVENTH RACE

BASES LOADED catches a race without much pace. This gelding has pace. That distance try two back was OK. That try four back was solid also. Good race/better race pattern? If so, that bodes well today. A good price we would think and that rounds out the appeal. CECIL THE CAT exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 67 and 64. He comes in fresh and won when last seen returning off a layoff. COZY BAR is an 11YO so let’s give him that return race. He does have a little tactical speed. Let’s see if he can grind out the show dough. CURRENTLY KRAZY exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with Beyers of 69 and 61.

EIGHTH RACE

PUT IT ON ICE just didn’t care for the turf last out. She gets a huge jockey switch today going from Muir to Arrieta. Race flow is fine and her upside is better than all. PECOS DANCER might offer some value. We likes those tries 2 and 3 back. Not sure what happened last out but we have a different jockey today. MIZZENHOWER dropped in class last out and ran better as the chalk. She gets better race flow today. Trainer stats are great across the board.