ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, CHILL

FIRST RACE

First post 1 p.m. according to the overnight. CHILL makes his first start in California as the most probable winner on the card, dropping from first-level allowance at Woodbine to starter allowance in his first for high-percent trainer Bill Morey. Both works by CHILL at Santa Anita were sharp; his Canadian form is solid. He finished second last out behind Adios Muchacho, who was winning his fourth straight. CHILL is racing on dirt for the first time; local works suggest he handles the footing. CAPTIVATE won this condition in September, but was disqualified for supposed interference in the stretch. Actually, it was just good race-riding by Drayden Van Dyke. CAPTIVATE missed workouts in late October-early November, but since resuming a work pattern nearly two months ago he has not missed a beat. His last-start “win” on this track was decisive, he should be forwardly placed. BAD BOY LEROY is a 2-for-4 gelding making his first start in nearly eight months. His maiden win on this track last winter fits with these; he is quick enough to set or press the pace from the outside post.

SECOND RACE

GOLD ARROW, a sibling to G1 winner Battle of Midway and current Derby hopeful Moretti, makes her long-awaited debut at age 4. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, ‘ARROW is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro with a series of sharp workouts. She is “live” first time out in this five-runner field. RIA MUNK finished a solid second in her comeback, less than two lengths behind Withholding Info, who returned to finish second in an allowance route while earning an 81 Beyer. The point is, ‘MUNK ran well against a good rival. First-time starter SCATTERING MINK appears to have trained okay. However, the top choice should be tough to beat.

THIRD RACE

This $20k maiden-claiming sprint is a new class level for 3yos at Santa Anita; the previous bottom level for this age group was $30k maiden-claiming. SHAKE N FRIES gets the call, moving from an inside post to an outside post. His most recent fourth-place finish was actually okay. He was hounded through a fast pace, hung tough to deep stretch, and finished seven lengths back. Not bad. With a pressing trip from an outside post (8 of 9), he is the tepid selection. SILENT ALARM finished more than three lengths in front of the top choice last out, rallying from off the pace. In the money six of eight, he might be the best late threat. CONTAGION, a $90k purchase at a 2yo sale last spring, makes his career debut for $20k. This race is a good spot for a new face, because the top pair do not appear to be that reliable.

FOURTH RACE

All six in this $25k claiming sprint exit the same race. The call is D D’S LUTE, who probably ran better than the winner even while finishing second. ‘LUTE raced within striking range of the fast-pace leaders while saving ground on a track that might have favored the outside, kept grinding, made the lead but got collared by a filly that rallied wide from the back. It was a good effort by ‘LUTE, who can win this if she can overcome the inside post. Going into the Thursday card, the rail is 2-for-53 in dirt sprints. UNO TROUBLE MAKER set a blazing pace opening day, led by more than two lengths at the furlong pole, then faded to sixth. It was actually a good effort. If she can ration her speed more effectively, she could be gone. AMERS took advantage of the collapsing pace to spring the opening-day upset over these same rivals. She is a reliable laterunner, no surprise if she repeats. NAUGHTY SOPHIE was the beaten favorite in the common

race, EMPRESSOF LOV will pick them up late; EASTER DREAM also will finish.

FIFTH RACE

LONDON HOTEL and DON’TEATMYCOOKIES are the ones to beat in this $12.5k claiming N2L sprint. This class level frequently is won by horses racing at the bottom for the first time. The description applies to both top choices. LONDON HOTEL finished behind ‘COOKIES when they met last summer, but perhaps she can reverse the order if she leaves the gate. She broke slowly three of her first four starts, though two were from the rail in dirt sprints. After winning a maiden-20 in fall, she faces winners for the first time while moving to an outside post. With a decent start, she can wear down the speed. However, DON’TEATMYCOOKIES has the tactical edge because she has more speed. She won a maiden-40 last summer, was in tough in a starter allowance turf route, and now shows up at rock bottom while returning to dirt. If she can avoid pressure from the front-runner to her outside, she could be gone. That front-runner is MI PAJARITO, who is quick enough to keep the pace honest while switching to five-pound apprentice Heriberto Figueroa. He entered the Sunday card as the meet’s second-leading rider.

SIXTH RACE

RATHER NOSY drops from maiden special-weight to maiden-30 as the one to beat. The challenge is footing. Her first three starts were on turf, now she is first-time dirt. ‘NOSY is the one to beat, but the surface switch complicates the situation. Secondtime starter YOUR ROYAL COIL enters as a viable upset candidate. She worked okay into her debut, and finished a respectable fifth in a 10-horse field. Now she shows up for $30k and switches to Edwin Maldonado. The last time trainer Paul Aguirre employed Maldonado on a second-start maiden, Lanacakes posted an $18.20 comeback upset in December at Los Alamitos. A DIME FOR ME figures for a trip similar to her respectable runnerup debut two starts back. She posted a sharp halfmile work since her mildly disappointing second start. GOODTINGSCOMINPINK finished an okay second in her debut. She can improve.

SEVENTH RACE

MUCHO UNUSUAL ran below expectations last out, runner-up as the favorite in a stakes race. Based on her sporadic workout pattern afterward, she may have had some sort of excuse for the 10-point decline in her figure. But her maiden romp on this track two starts back would be plenty good enough to handle this small field of five Calbred 3yo fillies. TIZ A MASTER is in sharp form, seeking her third straight after maiden-claiming and starter allowance wins. She is improving, trainer Bill Morey is rolling. HOTITUDE, maiden winner and placed in two stakes after, figures in the hunt. ALL TEA ALL SHADE will roll from the back of the pack.

EIGHTH RACE

SHANGHAI BILLY drops to the maiden-20 bottom for the first time. Two weeks ago, he broke slowly from the rail and finished last in a maiden-50. This is an easier spot, from a more desirable outside post. SPANISH BAY is firsttime claim tag. Sired by Tapit, produced by a G1 winner, the gelding figures off his midpack finish in a MSW in fall 2017. That was a long time ago. CASUAL REPLY is a crazy upset candidate. The first-time starter is by a sire (Daaher) that gets an above-average rate of debut winners (17 percent, according to Thoro-Graph). The gelding appears to have worked okay at San Luis Rey Downs. BLESS HIS HEART is back doing what he does best, which is sprint. This is his eighth start, however.