Smaller fields may conceal value

ARCADIA, Calif. – Lingering rain that interrupted workout schedules and turf racing this week at Santa Anita is forecast to make way for sunny skies and an eight-race card Friday afternoon.

Turf racing resumes in race 4, when career maiden Sellwood, the beaten favorite in four straight races, goes a mile seeking his long-anticipated first victory. Race 8 is a $25,000 claiming starter allowance, also at a mile on turf, led by frontrunning stablemates North County Guy and Kristi’s Copilot.

The two feature races Friday are California-bred dirt contests with six entrants. Race 5 is for filly-mare sprinters; race 7 attracted an all-gelding field to

go one mile. The significance of both events probably is limited to wagering appeal. Question is, does either six-horse field offer value?

While the meaning of “value” differs from one bettor to another, the winter meet has produced a surprising number of relatively generous payoffs in six-horse fields – 11 of the 15 winners paid $6 or higher. Through Sunday, the median win payoff in a six-horse field was $6.80.

Race 5 contender Li’l Grazen could fall into the category of low-odds overlay, pending the emphasis horseplayers put on her recent trainer change. Li’l Grazen finished fourth as the favorite last out, but was claimed for $16,000 by Peter Miller.

Miller has won with 6 of his last 11 starters first off the claim. Further, Li’l Grazen is easy to support on figures. Two starts back in a claiming race, Li’l Grazen earned a 73 Beyer finishing second. The past year, 73 is the median winning Beyer in Cal-bred filly-mare allowance sprints.

Li’l Grazen has won just 2 of 23, while Miller first-off-theclaim starter We Will Re Joyce is 9 for 25. She was claimed last out for $12,500. The other entrants in the six-furlong race Friday are 3-for-4 Arizona shipper Toreno, Shylock Eddie, Sapphire Kid, and Chasin Lucas.

Race 7 contenders include lightly raced Ground Attack, in the money in his last two races, both routes at the Cal-bred allowance level. Bruce Headley trains, co-owns, and bred the gelding, who should vie for favoritism.

California Journey finished behind Ground Attack in both recent starts, but he was compromised both times. Two starts back, California Journey had a wide trip from an outside post; last out he broke slowly. Jerry Hollendorfer trains California Journey.

The pace in race 7 is expected to be set by either Acclimate or Nap Lajoie. The other entrants are Plain Wrap and Spend It.

First post time for Friday’s eight-race card is 1 p.m. Pacific.