ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, JOHNNY TICKETS

FIRST RACE

SPAC, an inexpensive $14,000 yearling purchase, was spotted three times against straight maidens and although unsuccessful, at least her placement there was a sign of initial barn faith in her ability. She should now appreciate dropping into a maiden $20,000 claiming field, and catching what seems a below-average race for the level. Not thrilled about her outside draw but more positives than negatives. SECRET O’LIFE, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, is likely to plunge below that price in the betting off a troubled trip that no one missed Jan. 17. She stumbled badly a couple strides out of the gate, was allowed to regroup, and then launched a four wide rally on the second turn before flattening out to third at this level. That followed some competitive efforts last fall. Formidable but chalky. TAPIZAR GIRL failed to keep pace when unveiled in a five-furlong turf sprint, but should benefit from that experience and added distance to go a mile.

SECOND RACE

DISCREET HEAT missed by a nose first time off the claim when second for this $12,500 tag, finishing over seven lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Prone to runner-up status (five times over his 12-race career), but otherwise appealing. ROYAL HOLIDAY is a class dropper and a three-time winner in a race in which a few of his rivals, including the top choice, are merely twotime winners. His best races have usually come at Gulfstream, though not last out when sixth of seven for $30,000. Addition of blinkers may reflect barn frustration with him backing up in the final furlong of his recent races. TAKEDOWN was third, over seven lengths behind the top choice Jan. 17, and was claimed for the second consecutive race. As a stakes-placed runner from last year, his back class has proven appealing to claiming horsemen. Dangerous if able to get back on track.

THIRD RACE

6-1 BULLGRATS underwhelmed in two starts last year after managing a second on one occasion in 2017 at age 2, but his works have picked up in recent weeks and his connections keep the faith by not dropping him in price. They must feel he is better than what he has shown lately. HASTA LA BYEBYE is the clear one to beat, possessing speed and coming off a runner-up finish behind a nextout winner in a straight maiden race. But looking at his worktab, he shows just one five-furlong move (and slow), hinting he may be short of complete fitness for his first start since late last June. KEEPING THE PEACE is a first timer by the fine debut sire Elusive Quality, and is out of a mare that won three of 14 races and $323,000. He also worked a bullet from the gate at Palm Meadows Jan. 15 for high-percentage trainer Jason Servis.

FOURTH RACE

JORDY’S READY brings the strongest recent form to the table, winning two straight before a runnerup finish at this $6,250 N3L claiming level Jan. 24. Also looks poised to sit a favorable outside pressing trip in a race without much speed. Based on pace figures, ROSE M. is projected by TimeformUS to be the early leader. In good form, she steps up from N2L company, and also goes from a hot to cold stable via a claim. DANCING STARLET managed a distant second against similar Jan. 9, finishing in half-length in front of third-place DRAFT, who is also back in this spot. Two of her three starts for $6,250 have resulted in top-three finishes.

FIFTH RACE

ABJURE could not keep up with straight maidens on debut, only passing a couple tired horses to be seventh after racing in the back of the pack. Her presence for a $50,000 tag is therefore logi-

cal. Improvement anticipated and expecting her to rise from her 7-2 morning line. AVOCADO and PEACEFUL FEELING, on the other hand, are boldly dropped in light of the former’s $250,000 sales price and the latter’s pedigree. AVOCADO managed a second two back, but had somewhat of an excuse in her latest when chasing hot splits. As for PEACEFUL FEELING, she ran a close seventh in her lone race when racing in a slow-paced contest. Moderate works for Chad Brown in preparation for her first start since October. JOHNNY TICKETS was steady paced in finishing fifth, beaten four lengths, when racing in a grass sprint for $25,000 Dec. 29. He seems better suited to this six-furlong race on dirt, and especially to a class drop to $12,500 claiming. BRAVER THEN WE ARE just overcame a troubled start, rallying from 12 lengths back to break his maiden. Although now facing winners, perhaps he can still contend. His connections thought enough to claim him for $25,000 in December. ORGANIC JENNY is the only horse that has more than one victory in this spot, having won a pair, a maiden claimer and a $16,000 race. He does not have much speed, however, and is now cut back from a mile to six furlongs after a fifth Jan. 17.

SEVENTH RACE

Hopeful that a start, class drop, and surface switch results in an improved performance from the Todd Pletcher-trained MS. MAXIMUM. Progeny of Violence are an above average 11 for 77 in their first starts on grass, and this one’s dam won on turf. Likely better than what she displayed when sixth of nine when sprinting on dirt against straight maidens Dec. 13. STARLIGHT RIDGE has twice raced for this maiden $50,000 tag, rallying to be second Dec. 27 in her debut and then sitting closer and fading in a slow-paced contest Jan. 16. Expecting her to be taken back today under Johnny V. CHASING HELICITY has twice been outrun but is now in with easier. Take note she had been training quickly on the turf at Palm Meadows last year.

EIGHTH RACE

SO CHARMING ran honestly to be a close sixth in the Via Borghese, beaten just three lengths by repeat stakes winner Si Que Es Bueno. Prior to that race she had been the runner-up in a pair of first-level allowances such as this one. A deserving favorite. ARCH OF TROY was a determined winner of a $30,000 N3L claimer Jan. 16 in her first start for trainer Mike Tomlinson. She races for a $35,000 tag under these optional claiming conditions, having won an entry-level allowance back in 2017 when based in California. She has the tactical speed to be close to what projects as a slow pace. COME ON CITY encouragingly rallied to be third in her second U.S. start after a troubled beginning. She alternated authoritative wins and rear-half finishes in four starts in Germany prior to being imported to the U.S.

NINTH RACE

PRINCESS VICTORIA goes second off the claim for Navarro in this optional claimer, and may improve upon her latest when second with a wide trip Dec. 16. She is already a winner over this mile distance at Gulfstream, doing so last summer for different connections. TREASURE IN HEAVEN is a logical contender, a filly that returned to form by running second Dec. 27 after a couple of lackluster races. She managed that runner-up finish despite some traffic problems but may have the speed to avoid any such trouble going a mile. SMILE MORE caught a tough group at Churchill last out but had previously been a consistent performer, albeit within the maiden ranks. She won going a two-turn mile, and does not act as if one turn will prove an issue.

TENTH RACE

COLD WARRIOR chased the pace before yielding to seventh against what seemed a nice group of Florida-bred maidens Jan. 19. He should now appreciate facing a so-so group in this maiden $35,000 contest. GO POKE THE BEAR initially ran second in a maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park West for $50,000, an effort that led Pletcher to protect him by running against straight maidens at Tampa. He never got involved there in an uninspired performance, and now gets blinkers added following that eighth. RUDIGER also gets the shades for the first time, an equipment change following a debut in which he lagged at the back of the pack before rallying to be fifth for maiden $50,000.