ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, OCEAN DREAM

FIRST RACE

ROCKANTHAROS is in good form and likes this dirt. She goes from a 13% barn to a 32% barn and they are 38% off the claim. First call rider gets a leg up and he shows a flat bet profit for team Ramgeet. SLEIGH RIDE tried a tough 6 1/2 furlongs off the layoff yet still finished 2nd beaten less than a length but as the favorite. She cuts back a half furlong to her favorite distance where she is a perfect 3 for 3. Lack of front speed is the main knock as there isn’t much pace in here. PLAY NICE ran OK in her most recent. Troubled trips 2 and 3 back. Added half furlong is the X factor.

SECOND RACE

ITS A BOY won his debut even though it was two turns on the turf and that is never easy. He tried stakes foes in his second start but had to chase a slow pace where he did beat over half the field home. Today’s pace is actually better than recent stakes. The leading rider gets a leg up and that is simply icing on the chalky cake. CELTURIAN does have some solid turf breeding and does like this sod. He got a 63 Beyer two back when breaking his maiden. Perhaps he was too close to a solid pace last out when facing first time winners. MONUMENTAL SEVEN just won on this sod and did so nicely. Maybe he is a late bloomer or maybe he got a taste for winning after 14 starts and liked it. KINEMATICO exits a key race where 2 of 12 returned to win with figs of 71 and 74. His Beyer top of 76 actually leads this field.

THIRD RACE

GO YOUR OWN WAY exits the common key race where 2 of 2 returned to win with figs of 71 and 60. This gelding goes second time routing and draws inside main pace foe. His route breeding is better than all and that is another reason he should improve second time two turns. DANIEL RUN has a little upside and did break his maiden when first time routing. He caught a good track last out while facing better that were also first time winners so let’s cut him a break. If he can avoid a speed duel with our top pick then chances improve. CASH PILOT is just better since coming here. He can

handle a flat mile and gets back to the dirt today.

FOURTH RACE

HIPPLEPOTOMUS might prove quickest but a lot depends how hard Hernandez sends this gelding from the gate. This horse got a 61 Beyer only three back but that was with a breather and going 5 1/2 furlongs. We do like this inside post. The key may be the rail runner and how quick that one is. If BRICKHOUSE can’t match our top pick in the few first jumps then this gelding can hold the rail into the turn which comes up quickly at this distance. He can’t get stuck between runners which is what happened last out. OVER EZ might get a great trip if multiple runners try for the front end. That was a good try only two back at today’s distance. This post is outside but not sure that matters so much as this guy is going to come from off the pace. The jock switch to Arrieta is big as is the cut back in distance. MAII does have some upside. He just won gate to wire but we think others are quicker so a stalking trip makes better sense. The Silva barn is 20% with their repeating winners.

FIFTH RACE

ZAPPED goes third off the layoff and drops in class. Against this group that should be plenty. If not, then he has some speed in a race without a lot of zip. Let’s move on then. HOUSE OF CHANCE just ran better with Arrieta up and he stays put. Now sure how this gelding is going to be 6-1 on the morning line. He has a little bit of speed and draws inside but isn’t stuck on the rail. Few are better with speed horses than Arrieta even if this guy ends up just off the pace. STORM REVELER is proven on this dirt and comes in fresh. The long layoff is the X factor. That notwithstanding he ran Beyers of 58, 49, 62 in his last three starts on this dirt.

SIXTH RACE

GOLD TREASURE takes a huge drop in class and that alone should be enough. Current form is actually decent. He just fits today’s conditions. Race flow is fine. WHICH MARKET exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 74, 77, and 71. That dirt try off the layoff two back was decent. Form cycle hints at better and he draws a post where he can save all the early ground. The jock switch to Arrieta is big. WILD ATLANTIC WAY has some speed and there isn’t a ton of zip in here. Could this gelding clear off and prove troublesome to run down all at a decent number? You betcha. Plus, his distance tab is a solid 13-2-2-0. Don’t forget about the weight break which might help his front speed. CHARLIE AGAIN exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 63, 80, and 48 (another finished 2nd with a 75 Beyer).

SEVENTH RACE

OCEAN DREAM is just better on the turf. Still, that dirt sprint four back was decent as was recent mile try. We think she is feeling good but the return to the turf is what we like best. Race flow is only average so no help there. This race didn’t come up very tough for the level. PRINCESS O’PRADO has won on the grass before even if only once. Form cycle hints at better as she goes third off the layoff. Maybe the jock switch to Vergara helps shake things up. HOLY MOSEY should show some tactical speed in this spot as there is very little pace in here. She has won on this lawn before and has the best recent figs. The Pearson barn is only 9% on the grass. AMY JEAN exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 63 and 56.

EIGHTH RACE

WALK AWAY has never run poorly. New barn is 29% off the claim and they lure the top jock in Arrieta. Class drop for high percentage barn makes this filly the big chalk. ALOHA MARSELLA is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam won her only start and earned $16,800 doing so. Only one of three sibs won but it is a multiple winner of 191K (14-4-1-1). MISS

SURFLINER has been working in company with the other Metz runner. Sire only gets 3% debut winners. Her dam went 8-1-0-2 for 29K. Only one of three sibs won but it was a multiple winner of 39K (18-3-1-1). TIZSWIFT exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 59 and 52.