ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MENSCH

FIRST RACE

TAYLOR RIDGE never got a breather last out but still ran better and now goes third off the layoff. He cuts back a half furlong to what might be his best distance. A new jock is noted. AIRBORNE MARK has some decent figs of late and faces very little in here. Your default winner, then? Here is another that cuts back a half furlong to their favorite distance. JOINT TENANT is a 9YO so maybe he needed his return try to some extent. We would like him more if there was a recent work. Maybe this old timer doesn’t need any works and is ready for a better try right now.

SECOND RACE

TOGRANPASHOUSEWEGO ran well in his debut and now gets first Lasix. Five of seven sibs beat winners. We like this jockey especially for trainer Charles Essex (21%). Added half furlong is another plus. SPITTIN HAVOC broke 9th of 11 in his debut but still rallied to earn the place. Two of three sibs beat winners. Jockey/trainer combo of Velazquez and Ortiz is a very nice 31%. We even like this outside post. CHAMPSACHAMP has some speed and goes second time this dirt. We love that recent bullet work. A new rider is noted in Arrieta. If the front end is wanted then the 2 horse might be a pace problem.

THIRD RACE

REVENGE AGAIN broke his maiden three back when trying a dirt mile for the first time. Allowance foes were a tad much two back or is the turf simply not his surface? His most recent was a tad better mainly because of the class drop and again it was on the grass something he isn’t bred to like anyway. Now he gets back to the dirt and picks up a top jock in Vergara all in the process. IMALOCOMOTIVE is in good form. Second time with new barn can only help and team Ramgeet are having a very good meet. The one to beat? BATTLE ZONE should like the grass but has done nothing on that surface in three starts so maybe we can forget his most recent. He did beat half the field home two back when trying winners for the first time and they were also stakes foes. We know he won’t have

a problem with this distance.

FOURTH RACE

CEE’S JOY catches a field that is weak for the level. She goes third off the layoff which can only help and of course Stevens keeps the call. Her most recent might have been better if she hadn’t hesitated at the start. She is a 9YO and we all know that older horses often need a few races to get back into the swing of things. HERETOPLAY ran great when last seen on this turf and it came only three back. This mare has a nice even running style when going short and that should bode well for two turns. Yet to actually win on the grass is a small knock. MOON BLOSSOM was washed off the grass in her most recent so forget it. As good as that turf win was four back it was still 3 points below her top. Second time with new barn can’t hurt.

FIFTH RACE

COASTAL CURVES ran a little better last out and now adds a full furlong to what should be her best distance. She doesn’t get much pace to chase but still catches a field weak for the level. DEVIL’S WILDCAT did beat half the field home last out even though it was a non fast surface. Arrieta stays put and he has to see something with this runner. Form cycle hints at better as she goes third off the layoff. VADVADA did little last out but was returning off a long layoff. She gets in light today.

SIXTH RACE

KAUFY BUZZ was made the favorite in his most recent and for good reason. He ran fine that day but still had to settle for second. He now goes second time this dirt and second time with new barn. Once again, he doesn’t get much pace help but we don’t think he needs it anyway. ROCKING CHIEFTAIN adds 1 1/2 furlongs today and goes third off the layoff. The jock switch to Mawing is a positive. Against these, this gelding has some tactical speed. WAR LINK showed route speed in his most recent when made the favorite. He cuts back to a sprint today but we still expect him to be forwardly placed. The Metz barn is a very good 22% route to sprint.

SEVENTH RACE

SUTTER gets a huge jockey switch from Francis to the leading rider in Arrieta. This gelding has some speed and draws inside. Added half furlong actually helps theft chances. EZ EZ EZ dropped into state-breds two back and that did the trick as the heavy chalk. It is his next race that impressed us as he ran a Beyer top when facing first time winners. Alas, there is a new barn today and they are 0 for 1 off the red tag. Race flow isn’t the best for this off the pace runners but we do like his upside. RY GUY has improved his Beyer in four straight starts. His most recent was better and he now goes second out with new barn.

EIGHTH RACE

MENSCH tried two turns on the grass in his debut at the Fair Grounds and actually ran OK when seventh of thirteen at 12-1. That was a very tough spot. He was washed off the grass in his second start. Then he came here and of course connections wisely wanted the grass. This colt tied his Beyer from his debut while beating over half the field home. We haven’t seen his best yet. He is bred to like the grass and now goes second time this sod. His upside is better than all. MARICOPA COUNTY is by a 16% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first foal to try the weeds. The Grissom barn is simply awesome on the grass. They are 1 for 2 with debut turf runners. Breaking slowly in both sprint starts to date didn’t help matters. WARREN’S FANDANGO was facing better on the grass in SoCal not that long ago and holding his own. This gelding got some class relief last out at Hawthorne and ran better. Lots and lots of local works so he should be fully acclimated to hear. JEN LORS LEGACY is by a 0 for 11 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass and this is her first grass foal. BEAT THE HEAT is by a 1 for 8 debut turf sire. His dam went 17-1-3-1 on the grass for 85K. Lone turf sib is 4-0-0-0.