ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, SHACKLEFORDS STORM

FIRST RACE

SHACKLEFORDS STORM rallied willingly while not being pushed hard in the late stages, once he was obviously beaten, and he may be able to make the last run in this opener after a trip from just off the pace; last two Beyers fit very well. DISCREETLY PLACED makes his first start off the claim for trainer John Rigattieri, who has won with two of his last three such runners; beaten favorite for this tag last time can atone for new connections. EVOLUTION is one of the primary speeds and will take them as far as he can on the lead; was aided by a loose lead and a wet track last time but merits respect nonetheless.

SECOND RACE

WILD WIGGLIN JACK is back in for a tag, and though those last two scores when in for $8,000 were against restricted claimers the Beyers he earned in those wins were better than par for the respective class and distance; those easy scores came via forward trips but he can also rate if need be. REEDER took full advantage of a perfect trip behind the speeds in that last one but his tactical speed leads to such set ups; dangerous with a similar trip today despite the class rise. DARWISH rallied well in that last one, in a race that set up for the closers, but a slow start is what led to the off-the-pace tactics; expecting him to be close up today, assuming a clean getaway from the rail.

THIRD RACE

FAT N BITTER rallied with interest to just get up for the place in that last one, and while she was no threat to the winner she was still flattered when that runner returned to score again; tactical speed a big plus as she attempts to work out a trip. SHIMMYSHIMMY SHAKE is down in class after being overmatched in her first start following the maiden win, and she certainly has license to improve at this level. PHYLLIS DRILLER didn’t get away cleanly in that first try vs. winners and that cost her; better break can make a big difference for her today.

FOURTH RACE

PREQUALIFIED might ordinarily be a horse to try to beat after he failed in that last one following a seemingly good set up but he meets a weak field for this, and his Beyers do stand out; maybe now or never. Firster FIVE GRAND is a contender by default in this field; kin to three winners, and the dam won her own career debut, as well as four other races. SUNSHINES OUT is a stab at a price but he does have room to move forward today with the blinkers added.

FIFTH RACE

SECRET AFFIRMATION caught the eye with a strong late rally on the rail in her debut; she went to the sidelines for a short freshening but that’s actually a positive, as the barn excels with runners off these intermediate “layoffs”. WHATEVERUSAYDEAR is at the lowest level of her short career, and she could be the one to fear in the lane; back on the main track, which she does seem to prefer. JUDITH RUNS TOO didn’t run badly in that debut run, when 3rd, as a slow start cost her position and she had to rush up; class drop another plus.

SIXTH RACE

PENNY ROSE has been running well enough in defeat of late on the main track but trainer Manuel Estevez has been wanting to get her on the turf and she ran well in defeat the last time she was on this course; class drop and surface switch likely just what she needs. REWROTE was off the board in that last one but was closing well in the late stages; steady Beyers add to the appeal. CHOLLA has had her chances on the turf (9) and overall (20), which makes taking a short price on her a little iffy; that said, she has to be considered an exacta threat, at least, based on her best figures.

DESERT SPRING has worked splendidly since his latest, which can easily be attributed to the fact that he was gelded and/or today’s addition of Lasix, as those breezes suggest he’ll improve as a gelding; wide but speedy. CURLAWAY is another adding Lasix for the first time, and he’s also going long after a sprint try in his debut; caught the eye with a stretch run in that effort, suggesting he wants more ground. ACE DINERO moves to the dirt after a turf try in his first start; showed some life in that race and he’s eligible to take a step forward today given some pace help up front.

EIGHTH RACE

SUM MO CASH could be viewed as a reach as she stretches out and tries grass for the first time but she does loom the controlling speed in this otherwise paceless race, and the dam was successful turf runner; will take them as far as she can under jockey Mike Allen. HAND RAIL is the other extreme, the one to fear late; she was closing with interest in that last one, and though she benefited from the fast early split she was moving best of all in the lane. RETRO STREET comes off a maiden win but she fits based on the Beyer she posted there.

NINTH RACE

NELO MARGARITA was behind a couple of these on the wire in her latest but she was closing well through the lane there despite a relative lack of pace help; may be able to run them all down on the wire with an improved pace scenario. ALL THIS JAZZ is hard to like as a win candidate but her early speed could mean she’s on the lead today, as she could get brave; one to consider for exotics. VICTORY SPELL used her tactical speed to work out favorable trips in each of her last two and she got the place last time when in against several of these same runners; obvious threat.

TENTH RACE

T’S SOUTHERN DUDE weakened only late after pressing the pace in that last one, an effort that was better than it may appear; should offer some value against a couple of favorites that have some holes in Solid (no excuse as favorite in last) and Rue de Musique (long layoff). SOUL OF THE HERO rallied well in that dirt sprint last time, an especially good effort given nd the lack of pace in the field; pulled up and vanned off in his last try on turf but there’s obviously little to glean from that line. RUE DE MUSIQUE could win this despite the 16-month layoff but the class drop and her Beyers likely mean an underlaid price under the circumstances.