ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, COMBAT ZONE

FIRST RACE

Runner-up three straight, improving older maiden JUSTIN’S QUEST is likely to start at as short price in this small-field route for older maidens. ‘QUEST missed by only a head last out, finishing seven lengths clear of third after dueling on a strong pace. If he repeats that Dec. 31 effort, he would be tough to beat. VICTORY ELEMENT looked like a certain winner into the lane last out, but after opening up by two lengths at the furlong pole he fell apart and finished second as the odds-on favorite. That sprint was his first start in eight months, he finished second in his only route last May. CARIBBEAN, far behind the top choice while his two most-recent starts, will grind away late.

SECOND RACE

NATIONS HOPE looks best of an ordinary lot of 3yo maiden-claiming colts and geldings. His runnerup effort last out under similar circumstances (five+ lengths clear of third) was achieved on a wet surface, but he has run okay on dry land. Since last summer, trainer Jack Carava is 8-for14 with favorites. The past five years, Carava is 7-for-13 with maiden-claiming favorites. SOONER BETTER was unable to establish position early last out, and completely misfired in the same race the top choice exits. However, the third-place finish by ‘BETTER two back puts him in the hunt. JONATHANTOQUICK will rally from off the pace in career start No. 10, while MULZOFF stretches out, drops in class, adds blinkers and probably is the one to catch. MULZOFF perhaps should have been ranked higher by this handicapper; he has a legit shot to wire the field.

THIRD RACE

A wet main track compromised MADAKET SUNSET her most recent start; she finished last as the favorite. However, her runner-up-by-a-head finish two back in a N1X turf route, a race that followed her decisive maiden-50 win on this downhill course, stamps her the one to beat as she returns to preferred footing for this starter allowance on the hill. OPERANDI also returns to preferred footing, which is turf. Already a two-time winner on the hill, second start back from a short layoff, logical contender from just off the pace. SHEZA CHATTYKAT wired $40k claiming N2L turf sprinters last time while setting a fast pace. Claimed from the front-running win, she is a threat right back. Trainer Mike Puype has quietly compiled an outstanding record first off the claim. The past five years, he is 11-for-46, a 24 percent f.o.c. win rate and flat-bet profit. GYPSY BLU is 2-for-2 in turf sprints, facing better after a minor upset vs. Cal-bred allowance foes.

FOURTH RACE

Most entrants in this $20k claiming starter allowance sprint are front-runners. Something will have to give. BABY ICE is drawn near the outside, facing easier after a distant third last out at a higher level after breaking from the rail. The veteran mare is 3-for-6 on the Santa Anita dirt, from post 5 she might have the option of pressing/stalking rather than engaging in a duel. NO WINE UNTASTED is the logical selection based on “class.” After all, she won a N1X last out and theoretically is dropping in class to claiming starter. The challenge is she is unlikely to get the same easy trip she got last time when she led gate to wire on slow fractions. She did win from the rail last time, and drew the rail again, but most rivals to her outside have speed. She is likely to be under pressure every step. BE A LADY returns from a four-month layoff with the leading rider. MISTRESSOFTHENIGHT goes route to sprint and looms the off-the-pace threat in a race that could unfold in favor of a closer.

FIFTH RACE

Five of the seven maiden fillies in this Cal-bred turf mile exit the same sprint. The runner-up from that race was STYLIN OCEAN, who figures for a frontrunning or pace-pressing trip in a race that could unfold at a modest tempo. Not sure how far she really wants to run, because she did not finish that well three previous routes. However, the in-form

filly defeated four of these in a downhill race, and gets the call in a scramble. SPANISH CHANNEL stretches out following two sprints. Her pedigree and running style suggest two turns is what she wants. GOODTINGSCOMINPINK stretches out first off the claim by Vladimir Cerin (28 percent f.o.c. past five years). ‘PINK was sired by Clubhouse Ride and produced by an Unusual Heat mare, so two turns should be fine. KITTY BOOM BOOM goes long following a spin-around-the-track sprint prep. She can improve.

SIXTH RACE

SHEER FLATTERY returns to his winning level, $40k claiming, after finding N2X rivals too tough. The decisive victory two starts back by ‘FLATTER, at this level and mile distance, makes him the one to beat with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. VERY VERY STELLA misfired last out, but his highfigure efforts last fall would be good enough for this class. The versatile nine-time winner can run on the lead, or rally from behind. This is his first start since he was claimed by Anna Meah. AVANTI BELLO was no match for the top choice two back, but ‘BELLO was compromised by a wide trip that race. ‘BELLO is another nine-time winner, up two levels first off the claim by Vladimir Cerin. Northern California-based CABIN JOHN won his last two dirt routes, albeit at Hawthorne.

SEVENTH RACE

CIMPL MAN has been popular at the claim box; he was claimed five times the past year including a $40k claiming sprint last out in which he finished second. The veteran gelding can stay this mile distance, he has tactical speed to make his own good trip, and can fire first off the claim by Dan Hendricks. KAZAN will vie for favoritism with the top choice. This is the first time KAZAN has run in a claiming race; the G2-placed late-runner finished third in a pair of N2X turf miles early in the meet, and looms a logical threat from the back of the pack. TEQUILA JOE also drops and stretches out, while the runner-up finish two back by INCREDIBLE LUCK makes him a stretch-running contender. INVASION LOOMING adds speed.

EIGHTH RACE

The difference for SHOW IT N MOE IT is post position. Last out, she crushed main rival S Y SKY by more than three lengths. But ‘MOE IT broke from an outside post in that sprint, and is now stuck on the rail. It might not matter in this field of five. ‘MOE IT appears to have trained well since last month’s victory, the 4yo filly has always been among the top Cal-breds of her generation. If she can somehow work out a trip from the rail, she can win right back. S Y SKY finished more than three lengths behind the top choice when they met early last month, then ‘SKY wheeled back two weeks later to win a productive stakes race on the hill. The two-three finishers returned to win. ‘SKY got the best of the draw compared to the top choice, and figures for a pressing trip in the clear.

COCO KISSES has enough sped to make herself a pest partway. INTO RISSA, stablemate of the top choice, will rally late. A similar comment applies to BARBARA BEATRICE, stablemate of S Y SKY.

NINTH RACE

COMBAT ZONE is the most probable winner on the card. He dropped to this maiden-50 turf mile level last out, and finished second in a race he might have won with a better trip. He did not break well (stumbled), then encountered heavy traffic into the lane. He only missed by a half-length. Second try at the level, he should win. The knock is he has always been somewhat trouble-prone. AUSSIE FOX also had trouble last out, sixth as the favorite in the same race as the top choice. First off the claim by Jeff Mullins, blinkers off, Joel Rosario on, off-the-pace contender. HOLY GHOST drops from maiden special-weight for his first start since May, while making his first start since he was gelded.