ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, KICKENIT

FIRST RACE

There is a decent chance that the big favorite in this race (the 3) gets hooked by the other speed and if so then that sets things up nicely for a stalker/closer. Enter TEE EM EYE who just won on this dirt by almost 6 lengths at 2 to 5. This mare was competitive in SoCal not that long ago. The Silva barn is 20% with their repeating winners. ARI GIA is feeling great and has a ton of speed. The problem is that FOGGIA looks just as quick. Still, ARI GIA’s figs are better than all and she has a recent work that was very fast. RECONCILING can pass runners and might be the best price on the board. She likes this distance and has hit the exacta going six panels in 6 of 9 starts.

SECOND RACE

MADDYMAX is in good form and drops in class all for a barn that is 22% with their repeating winners. This 7YO mare even has a recent work. Versatile style is a plus and she cuts back a half furlong to what might be her favorite distance. TUSCANY

BEAUTY is the fresh face from SoCal. Lone local work is a bullet. Connections find a good spot and this mare figures to show some speed. Main knock is the voided claim from most recent combined with the time off. TOP LADY MARGIE is often a price and does get in light. Any moisture on the track would tilt the playing field in her favor.

THIRD RACE

KICKENIT finds a great spot. He has hit the board in all four of his turf starts. He hails from a very good grass barn. His tactical speed should help his trip. The bottom line is that he just looks too good for these. Plus, trainer stats are very good across the board. How big a favorite...that’s the only question we have. DUST ROLLER returned to the turf last out and was right there with a furlong to go before tiring late. That was still a promising start. New barn is 7% off the claim. This gelding got a 73 Beyer on this sod only five back. PACKY’S OUT hails from a good turf barn with McFarlane calling the shots. Race flow might be above average if things break just right and this gelding can pass runners.

FOURTH RACE

BELL OF RAINIER gets class relief today. We think this filly is best at today’s flat mile as she has hit the exacta in 4 of 5 tries. Race flow is a big plus as we spy two with speed and two others that are stretching out from sprints. Lone knock is that this filly has yet to run well on this surface but then again she has only had two shots at it. WACKY JACKIE has speed but has stalked before. Maybe she didn’t like getting bumped at the start in her most recent. If the front end is tried then other speed could be a problem. She hails from a top barn and they often use Scott Stevens who is 35% when getting a leg up from team Davis. MY EXPRESSION is the other speed. This mare often takes a lot money. She has lost as the favorite in three straight. Figures are much better since the barn change.

FIFTH RACE

ARTIFACT’S HOPE drops in class, draws well, and lures the top jockey in Arrieta. His running style might be ideal for an elongated sprint. Trainer stats are good across the board. Curious as to price. I B EZ is stuck on the rail and that is a knock going this distance. He does have some speed though and does drop in class. DESERT FOX is yet another class dropper. He draws the attack post and has won at today’s distance.

SIXTH RACE

ROYAL CHATTER should be a great price. She has run well at today’s tricky distance before. We say that she needed her return try and notice that she only had 3 works going into it. This barn is 16% with their claimers. She draws well. DEVIL’S WILDCAT is feeling OK. She has won at this distance. Race flow is only average though. ISABIRD returns in less than 7 days and that is a 27% move for trainer Juan Silva. The jock switch to Arrieta is telling (31% with this barn).

SEVENTH RACE

LA SWIFT might be better around two turns. Win rider returns with Hernandez up. That was a tough spot last out and notice that this gelding was sent off at 31-1. This spot makes more sense. MON MOUSSE has speed and there isn’t a ton of zip in here. Plus, he keeps the leading rider. Not sure what happened last out as this gelding failed as the luke warm favorite. Curious as to price. COLONEL GOTHAM got a 62 Beyer only two back. He adds a little distance today and that might be key as he is 4-1-2-0 going a mile sixteenth. We like the jock switch to Mawing.

EIGHTH RACE

APRIL’S LADY DI gets a positive rider switch to Stevens and that is key as he is 7 for 14 when riding for trainer Chad Story. This mare is just better at a flat mile. She should be forwardly placed with Stevens up. WINDI’S MOMENT is a tad better of late. She seems capable around two turns. Why is she almost always a great price? We like the jock switch. UH OH SEVEN has some speed and draws the rail so she guns, right? Current form isn’t so hot but we almost want that for a speed horse as it helps the price. SHADOW AFFAIR exits a key race where 2 of 11 returned to win with figs of 40 and 39.