ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MARICOPA COUNTY

FIRST RACE

Quarter horses.

SECOND RACE

TEQUILA MARY has been running evenly of late while most recent a tad better so now is a good time to drop in class. Second time with Corbett up can only help. For a six horse field, race flow is fine as the 1 and 5 have some speed. This mare has won five times on the grass just not yet locally. LAURA RAY missed a Beyer top by only two points in her most recent. She has won on this sod and looks better if you toss that off the green race two back. OCEAN DREAM ran a little better last out but we thought it would be better on the class drop. She was bumped at the start but not sure that is much of an excuse. New barn is 1 for 5 off the claim and they lure the top jock in Arrieta. BACIAMI exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 61 and 57.

THIRD RACE

MAII failed to get a breather in his most recent but still ran OK. He was stuck inside and that might have hurt whereas today he is drawn more outside. As expected for a short sprint, there is some speed in here but this gelding has won while hooked (debut at GG). Second time with Velazquez up can only help and he continues to ride well. WYATT is kind of a grinder yet has won twice at today’s distance. He stumbled at the start three back and was crowded at the start two back but both efforts were still solid. He shipped to Sunland last out and kept on going a furlong further. We love the fact that he has worked twice since. SINGAPRAYER has hit the exacta on this dirt in four of six starts. Did he beat much at Rillito last out? No, but a win is a win. In fact, he has now won three of his last six. He could be third or fourth choice on the tote.

FOURTH RACE

VICTORY ICE comes in off a long layoff and this barn is 0 for 11 with these types. This mare has only three works on top of that. Great, right?

Sample size is small and works are longer so we are unconcerned as long as the price is anywhere near 10-1 morning line. What if this mare is better on a real dirt surface? She has won twice on it. On the fake dirt at GG this mare got Beyers in the 60’s twice and those certainly fit here. The 3 and 5 are the speeds so this horse has something to run at. Finally, we like that connections find a spot where their charge can’t be claimed. DELICACY is the outside speed and the race favorite. Shaking the other speed might not be so easy though so some caution is advised if really hammered at the windows. TRINNI likes this distance and surface. She finished second the last two times that she started from the rail (1 and 4 back).

FIFTH RACE

LINDA HUNNY has done all of her winning at shortened sprints like today. Her most recent was better and she gets good race flow today. Jock switch to Arrieta is noted. BELLA GALINA comes in off a short layoff and has speed. Fresh speed is often the best speed. She has worked twice since her most recent. I’M NOT FANCY just didn’t fire last out yet Stevens returns. Sometimes the girls just throw in a bad one. Versatile style is a plus.

SIXTH RACE

SHARP MIND did face 11 foes in her most recent while losing the photo. A poor start and going seven wide probably cost her the W. That effort two back was OK so her most recent didn’t come out of nowhere. Second time with Samuels can’t hurt. DANNY’S PONTI goes second time this dirt and has some upside. This is the first time that she puts races together which is another good sign. Low percentage jock helps the price. SUPAH SISTA is a grinder that ran OK last out. We are afraid that she will be over bet today. Previous best efforts were not followed up on.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG HUNK ran OK at today’s distance two back even though that race was pulled from the grass. A mild bid last out but that race accomplished what was needed as this gelding was going second off the long layoff. Class drop hints at the money run as does exiting the grass. EGOISTA just ran a Beyer top. He seems best at a flat mile. This post isn’t the best but isn’t a deal breaker either. He doesn’t face much for sure. SENJA finally broke thru in his 15th start. What if he got a taste of winning and liked it? The Kereluk barn is 32% with their repeating winners and that is huge. This barn often uses Hernandez.

EIGHTH RACE

MARICOPA COUNTY is bred to love the grass. He was trying the turf and two turns for the first time last out and beat over half the field home. One of these days, he is going to break better. This is dam’s first foal. He has a recent work and is all set to improve second time turf/routing. On this card, this was an easy best bet of the day. TAYLOREALSWIFT won on this grass six back but was DQ’d. Good to know that she does have turf talent. Her recent dirt tries were solid so now is a good time to return to the weeds. Facing the boys is the tough part. TREVOR’S CALL exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 76 and 51. Both of his turf tries were good and they came in his first two starts so maybe he is more mature now. He is a first time gelding and ends up in a barn that is 38% with new runners.