ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, BREAK IN THE STORM

FIRST RACE

LAPULGA’s lack of tactical speed means she’s at the mercy of the race flow, and that’s been the case on a couple of occasions this year, but she should get at least some help from the frontrunners in this one; may be able to make the last run today if the splits are quick enough. VICTORY SPELL could potentially be one of the pacesetters, though she also can rate and make one run if need be; that versatility should mean she works out a trip regardless of how the pace scenario shapes up. LUCKY’S RANSOM is another closer looking for pace; didn’t get much in her last two but a quicker tempo certainly moves her up.

SECOND RACE

ALL GOOD TIMES has won two of her last three, and she ran well in defeat in the one loss two back; has the best last-out Beyer in the field but figures to offer some value in this well-matched field. PINK MAMA went on a tear here last year, and though she was off the board in her return last time she was in over her head; certainly has room to move forward off that line at this reduced level. ROYAL JEWELY didn’t break well in that last one and that cost her, as she was already up against it as a closer in a race lacking pace; expecting a better effort here, assuming a clean getaway.

THIRD RACE

ANDITSAFACT has never turfed but the barn has decent enough stats with horses moving to this surface, and lone sibling to start, Paynter’s Boy, posted his only career win on the green; she’ll be looking to close but there is some speed to her inside and she could be set up for a late rally. LADY GUSTO was no threat to the top pair in her latest but she did well to get the show after racing behind a mild pace; dangerous with a more favorable set up. LEMON WATER comes out of the same race, and she’s another who stands to improve with a better race flow in front of her.

FOURTH RACE

WALL STREET WOLF makes his third start off the short layoff and he comes off what could be viewed as a classic “bounce” in his 2nd try back, following a win in his return; draws a wide post but he has the speed to contend from the start, and he could in fact fall into a similar ideal stalking trip he did in that victory two back. WIZARD JAK was caught up in a duel two back but ran deceptively well in his return last time, pushing the early tempo in a race which set up well for the closers; another making his third start off the layoff. WAR PIPE was a game winner two back but race flow and a wide post combined to work against him in his return; rebound potential with a better trip.

FIFTH RACE

SKOLE was a very game winner in his turf sprint debut last time, no surprise given the barn’s success under these conditions; can win right back in his first start vs. winners if able to avoid a cutthroat duel on the front end. XY SPEED makes his grass debut, and while the high-percentage barn doesn’t win at as strong a rate with turfers trainer Jorge Navarro is at 23% with grass sprinters; has proven speed and figures to be a factor from the start. BLAME THE FROG gets Lasix for the first time and that’s a good angle for the barn; class relief another plus.

SIXTH RACE

MIAMI SMUGGLER is in for a tag for the first time, and his last two tries were against the in-form Tiger Blood, who is always tough here; ability to lead or rate a plus, as this sprint lacks an obvious pace scenario. DILETTANTE has the speed to contend from the start; overall win percentage lacking some, which makes taking a short price on the win end a little dicey, but he’s certainly a threat for exotics, at the very least. PUDDING had a big edge over that field of maiden claimer and he showed it, winning with ease; could prove dangerous in his first start off the claim, and against winners, if he’s able to run back to his best Beyers.

SEVENTH RACE

BREAK IN THE STORM was forced to race too close to the pace in that last one, which was a little light on speed, but if he’s able to take back off the lead and make a late bid today he could prove a threat in the lane; impressed in that near miss two back. UNION RANKS is the one to beat in his first start as a gelding, which could move him up; second in each of his last three starts, which dampens the enthusiasm some, but he does have some of the best Beyers in the field. TOM’S MUSIC has run well since shipping down the Tampa, with his only off-the-board finish coming two back when he was trying to close in a race lacking speed.

EIGHTH RACE

MISTIZ ran very well in two starts since returning from the long break, just missing at a big price in her return and then coming back with a 2nd-place finish in a race that produced a Beyer well above par for the class and distance; looms tough if able to maintain her form. BAYOU’S LEGACY has decent early foot and will be tough to catch if she’s able to shake loose in the opening stages; class drop could certainly help to wake her up, too. HEIR TIME drifted out when last seen, in the same race as the top pick, she returned with a decent work for this; quick enough to contend from the start.

NINTH RACE

BONITA SPRINGS is not only formidable based on the Beyer she posted two back, when last at this level, but she also looms the controlling speed in a race that’s light on pace; tough to go against at what figures to be a light price given her considerable edge. WANTAGH QUEEN stretched out and showed some early zip in that last one, and a forward trip will go a long way for her in this finale given the expected race flow. GAME GIRL is the main danger late, as her tactical speed should enable her to get the jump on the stone closers; steady Beyers add to the appeal.