Tacitus worth look in Tampa Bay Derby

The suspension of racing at Santa Anita certainly took some wind out of the sails of what was expected to be a very big Saturday of stakes racing. But Tampa Bay Downs and Aqueduct will still offer stakes-loaded cards.

The Grade 2, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby is the main event at Tampa, where four other stakes will be run, most notably the Grade 2, $225,000 Hillsborough. The Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham is the feature at Aqueduct and is supported by three other stakes, including the Grade 3, $200,000 Tom Fool, and the $250,000 Busher.

Elsewhere, Oaklawn offers the Grade 3, $200,000 Honeybee, and Turfway has the Grade 3, $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.

Tampa Bay Derby

Win Win Win, Well Defined, and Dream Maker are the first three favorites on the morning line, and Dream Maker is by far the most dangerous. Dream Maker looked like a vastly improved horse romping in his 3-year-old debut last month at Fair Grounds, and if that performance was a true bill he will take a lot of beating. There is an “if” there, however. Dream Maker’s effort last month was so much better than his three outings last year that I just want to see it from him again. Moreover, while Dream Maker is 4-1 on the morning line, I think he’ll be considerably lower than that.

Win Win Win and Well Defined come off decisive stakes victories over the Tampa main track, which counts for something. But Win Win Win, who won the Pasco by more than seven lengths with a field-best Beyer Figure of 99, will be going two turns for the first time Saturday with a profile that rings of a closing sprinter.

Well Defined took the Sam Davis last month (a two-turn race Win Win Win skipped) after establishing a clear early lead. But with Zenden and The Right Path in the lineup this time – two stretching out with good sprint speed – Well Defined figures to be challenged early, and that could easily make him less effective.

Much was made last week when the normally conservative Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott ran Hidden Scroll in the Fountain of Youth off only a maiden win in his debut. Many said it was compelling evidence of how highly regarded Hidden Scroll was by a trainer who has had more than a few good ones. Well, even if he lost as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth, Hidden Scroll is indeed a major talent, as he was tremendous in defeat.

I relate that because not only is Mott running Tacitus here off a maiden win for the same owner-breeder as Hidden Scroll (Juddmonte), he’s also doing so off a fourmonth layoff. That’s reason for me to take a shot with Tacitus, although he has other intriguing attributes.

For one, Tacitus ran well in a couple of live New York maiden races last fall, winning the second with a closing kick that fits Saturday’s projected pace setup. Tacitus is also first-time Lasix, a good move percentage-wise for Mott. And Tacitus should be a nice price, right around his morning line of 12-1.

Hillsborough Stakes

Hawksmoor was much the best winning the Endeavour Stakes last month, the local stepping-stone to this. She broke last of 10, which is usually big trouble for a speed horse like her, and was forced to come from off the pace. But this is a much tougher race, thanks primarily to two Chad Brown trainees – Rymska and Onthemoonagain.

Onthemoonagain, whose U.S. form is darkened due to circumstances beyond her control, is the one I want. Onthemoonagain had brutal luck at Saratoga last summer, drawing an awful trip in her U.S. bow, and then being severely compromised by a glacial pace in the Glens Falls. She encountered very tricky footing and a very good barnmate in Fourstar Crook in her most recent outing in the Flower Bowl, but ran well finishing second.

Busher Stakes

There are reasons to look beyond Oxy Lady in this spot. The 94 Beyer she received for winning the Tempted over the track last fall seems an outlier, and her distant sixth in the Rachel Alexandra in her 3-year-old bow was not encouraging. Yet, she’s my play.

Oxy Lady has a closing style which suits a pace that looks like it could collapse late, she has won over the track, and her fourth in the Starlet late last year against better company looks good against this field.