ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MUSTANG POWER

FIRST RACE

SPINTALK rallied to just miss in that last one but he could find himself closer to the early lead in this one, as he has shown early zip in the past; has the best recent sprint Beyers in the field. EL SOLDADOR has the best figure in the race, though he has been routing; 2nd in his last try at this distance, and though the figure came up light it was his first start off a short layoff. EL MAYITO is tough to take as a win candidate given his poor overall win percentage but he did hit the board in each of his last three.

SECOND RACE

STORMBEAM is down in class and she lands in a good spot in terms of race flow, as there is plenty of speed to his inside; eligible to make the last run here given a clean trip behind a quick, contested pace. THIRTY NINE SEVEN turns back from a route, and that’s a solid angle for this barn; she’s another who figures to benefit from the expected pace scenario. MISS KRIVORUCHKA could be best of the speeds; comes off a game win at this same level last time out.

THIRD RACE

KWAINA gets back to a sprint but still figures to be involved from the start, and in a race that lacks an obvious race flow she could get clear in the opening stages; sloppy strip and extended distance provide easy excuses for that last sub-par effort. CELTIC QUEEN also turns back but she does have enough speed to stay close; that could be an edge if the pace is in fact controlled. MISS CASUARINA wasn’t close in any of her recent starts but if the fractions are on the mild side perhaps she can last for a share at a big price.

FOURTH RACE

LA DOLCE UNO chased the loose pacesetter and eventual winner in that last one but she’s better when she is able to take back and make one run, and a fair amount of speed to her inside should mean she’s able to do just that; lone win was on the turf but she’s run well enough on the main track. HARDCORE CAT showed a rating gear in that last one, and if she can sit off a contested pace and make one run she should be well spotted to make an impact in the lane. KLAUDIAS WARRIOR was caught up in a duel in her latest but she weakened only late; dangerous if loose today.

FIFTH RACE

ON STRIKE was overmatched against Maiden Special Weight company in her latest but she fits very well at this reduced level in terms of Beyers; ran a nice race for the show against better than this two back, a race which produced four next-out winners. GLOVANNA came from dead last to get the show behind one of the speeds in her latest, an effort that clearly stamps her as a top contender in here; first start on the turf wasn’t terrible, either, as she moved prematurely there before weakening. UPPER CHARLIZE DS is wide but has the tactical speed to get position; in fact, she could prove to be the one to catch in this relatively paceless race.

SIXTH RACE

MUSTANG POWER wasn’t badly beaten in her latest, a race which featured a final time much faster than par; the winner’s Beyer was verified when he and another runner came out of there to score in subsequent starts, and this gelding appears to be in a good spot to score given the likely race flow. PERFECT JOE is one of the expected speeds; gritty try in his latest, when he set the pace from the start and fought to the wire before dropping a close decision. BENJAMIN drops way down in class for his local debut, and

he’s obviously dangerous if he can run to his first two Beyers; looms a light price, however.

SEVENTH RACE

UNITE THE MASSES was behind CHANNEL ISLAND in his debut but he ran a deceptively strong race there, as he was moving well through the lane after racing well off the pace in a race lacking speed; can turn the tables given a better set up. CHANNEL ISLAND is obviously going to be a handful today after running 2nd in that first career start; note the barn’s record with horses off this type of intermediate layoff. BOURBON TAN merits a look if he scratches in off the Also Eligible list; he was a close 2nd in his first start off the short break and he could be in line for a top effort today in his third start back.

EIGHTH RACE

EXOTIC GOLD finished 4th when stretched to two turns last time but that was certainly a bizarre trip, as she rushed up quickly to seize the lead down the backstretch after racing well back, then gave way in late stretch to finish off the board; switches to leading rider Samy Camacho, who might have her on the lead today. BALLIE’S DREAM adds blinkers and is another who figures to be prominent from the start; controlled pace would work to her advantage. SWEET GELATO has never raced this cheaply and she had a pace excuse in her latest.

NINTH RACE

SALSA JACK wasn’t pushed hard when it was obvious he wasn’t going to threaten for the superfecta in his latest but he was moving well late, and that wasn’t a race that was loaded with speed (top two finishers were on and near the lead); dangerous if able to get in off the AE list, as this seems to be a better spot for him in terms of pace. ASTUTE WARRIOR is down in class and in for a tag for the first time in nearly a year; obvious threat on the strength of his Beyers, which are among the best in the field. CROCE D’ORO has the speed to lead but can also rate, which he did in his latest; failed to last after making the lead in the lane but he figures to benefit from the experience.

TENTH RACE

MIGHTY MIGHT is wide again but he meets a seemingly average field for the level and this drop may be just what he needs; picks up Gallardo, which adds to the appeal. J’S FLASHY HALO ran a solid race for 2nd last time, beaten less than a length, thanks in large part to a perfect trip off the speeds; that said, he has to be respected off that line, as a similar set up is certainly possible given his tactical speed. It’s anyone’s guess how ROUGH SEA does in his first start in about 1 1/2 years but if he’s heavily bet off those 2017 Beyers he’s worth trying to beat, and if he’s cold on the board that will be telling as well.