ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, THE TRAILER GUY

FIRST RACE

BLUEGRASS FUGITIVE ran OK in his debut even though he was a bit reluctant to load. Two of three sibs beat winners. We like the jock switch to Lopez. This gelding has worked twice since his debut and now drops one class level. MAE BELLE PASSE is the fresh face from No Cal that puts races together for the first time and adds blinkers. Stevens gets a leg up and he is 21% for team Metz. WED O’S CHAMP turns around quickly and gets back to one turn. The fact that Arrieta rides is what intrigues us the most.

SECOND RACE

WARRENS ROLLING DICE may have found a home here after trying tougher in SoCal.. Her upside is better than all. Added full furlong helps front end chances. TIZ THE STORM drops in class and that might be enough against these. Form cycle hints at better and she can pass runners. DREAMY EYES has some speed and switches barns. After 16 starts, the rail draw isn’t much of a knock. Other speed is noted. KELLYANNE exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 47 and 43.

THIRD RACE

RUN AWAY FROM ROSE NOT stepped up in class and won nicely. We love the fact that connections want the turf again even if rained off in most recent. Lone grass try was versus better and this filly got a 50 Beyer even though she was trying turf, winners, and two turns all for the first time. She is even bred to like the grass with a 305 turf Tomlinson. Connections find a great spot where their charge can not be claimed. HERE TO PLAY has hit the board in five of nine grass starts. Current form is fine and there is some speed in this race. SLEIGH RIDE is by a 12% debut turf sire. Her dam went 15-2-2-2 on the grass and earned a nice 87K. Lone grass sib went 1-0-0-0 in only sod start. Current form is sharp and this mare has a recent work for new barn. BONITA RAPIDS exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 57 and 55.

FOURTH RACE

HUSTLE AND BUSTLE was stuck on the rail going 6

1/2 furlongs in his most recent and then he broke 8th of 10. That is an excuse for anyone but this horse won nicely at odds of 7-1. This field is no better. Yes, he is stuck on the rail again but he also goes third out for new barn and of course Lindsay keeps the mount. We rarely play Portland Meadows shippers but we’re gonna make an exception for VALID PRINCE. This barn already has a local winner and we really like how this gelding won his most recent. He even has a local work. MANDATED

BLISS just ran better at 116-1. We would think that another good price is in the cards. He does like an elongated sprint at 6-2-0-2. This 11YO could be an Old Good Horse Getting Better Again. ESTIQAA and DARRENATOR are interesting.

FIFTH RACE

JOHN ARNOLD cuts back in distance but might be the speed in this race. He could be a decent price. We like Mr. Stevens with speed runners. The Eikleberry barn is 29% on the cut back. Wire please. MARCHTOTHEMUSIC just ran better and seems to be nestling in nicely here. This gelding just missed last out and that was his first try at this tricky distance. He draws the attack post. CAST AND BLAST lured Arrieta in his most recent and ran much better when losing by less than a length at 5-1. Six and half panels is tough off a layoff so maybe this guy improves second off it. His distance tab is a sharp 7-2-2-1.

SIXTH RACE

We have to admit that we had a tough time liking anyone in this race. BUDDUG drops in class and gets a better gate rider today all while adding a half furlong. Notice that this filly often breaks well before taking back. Stevens and Metz are 21% together. SISTER SIENNA is feeling good but is 5 1/2 furlongs too short? A new jock is noted. D’ ELAINE is stuck on the rail and has no speed. BUT she gets Arrieta. Let’s move on to the next race.

SEVENTH RACE

OUT TRUMP’D HER goes for a new barn that is 40% off the claim. First call rider gets a leg up in Ramgeet. It seems that six furlongs is the best distance for this filly. AIKMAN’S GAL may not have loved a good track last out even if made the favorite. There are all kinds of tracks that are labeled good. Those efforts 2 and 3 back were solid and Arrieta stays put. MS WILD RUSH probably needed that turf start two back when returning off a layoff. Her most recent was better. If Shawn Davis was still training then we would have put this mare on top. New barn is 0 for 1 off the claim. We do like how this horse ran willingly between foes last out as that is a place most horses don’t like.

EIGHTH RACE

THETRAILERGUY drops in class, draws well, and gets good race flow. He has a recent work and figures a good price. The horse that he lost to three and four back is very good. TAELYNS PRINCE figures a good stalking trip. Second time with new barn can only help. The leading rider gives it another go. MR. SHOOK is speed with a lot of other speed. He draws the rail so he sends, right? He has passed runners before so maybe that is an option. He is feeling great and loves this sod.