ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SALSA JACK

FIRST RACE

DESCARADO had excuses in those last two losses, chasing a loose speed in a race with only four runners two back and then getting away slowly last time in another race where the winner controlled the tempo; does like to run 2nd but she does seem well spotted here. ODACHI has some speed and could be the one to catch; game in defeat when 2nd last time. FOR MY MOM has a decent late kick and she figures to be a threat in the lane; needs a quick, contested pace up front.

SECOND RACE

NED DEVINE was an easy winner at a short price in his latest, overcoming the race flow in the process, as he came from well off the pace in a race lacking speed; slow splits cost him in his prior start. LITTLE LEO did well to get the show last time after racing well off a controlled pace; similar scenario cost him two back as well but given a little help from the speeds he has license to make the last run. SKIPPER DANCER has some tactical early zip and may get first run at expected pacesetter GENERAL MACARTHUR; dangerous at a price with that type of trip.

THIRD RACE

PURE GEMMZ went down as the favorite in each of her last two but she at least had an excuse in her latest, when she was caught up in a race-long duel; thinking she can make amends here with a trip from just off the pace. R SWEET EXCHANGE has the speed to contend from the start and should be a factor from the break; especially tough if she’s able to shake loose in the opening stages. PRAIRIE CHICK takes the short step up after beating nonwinners of a race in six months; barn has solid stats with horses coming off a win.

FOURTH RACE

BREAK IN THE STORM rallied with interest to just miss two back, a head behind subsequent nextout winner, runnerup Jimmy D; weakened late last time after prompting the pace but if he can take back and make one run he might be able to run them all down on the wire. JUPITER RISING ships over from Gulfstream and fits nicely with this group in terms of his recent Beyers; looking to rebound after going down as the favorite in each of his last two starts. MORE THAN TEDDY is easily forgiven for that last one, a race rained off the turf, as he clearly prefers this surface; off the board in his first start vs. winners two back but he was moving very well through the lane, and he should be a very nice price here.

FIFTH RACE

UNSPOILED MOMENTS met much better on the grass last time and he’s back on the dirt here, coming off a solid score in his last main track appearance; he meets better here but he might be good enough to upset this field given a fast, pressured pace in front of him. GENERAL PADDY is the one to catch and beat; he comes off an easy score, and though he was loose on the lead in a paceless race there he may be the loose speed in here as well. ATTA KID moves down in class again, and he ran a strong race in defeat against $8,000 claimers two back, closing in a race lacking speed; has some upside and should be a square price.

SIXTH RACE

ADMIRAL ABE is out of a dam who was winless in eight career starts but she did produce Penry, who scored on both turf and dirt; solid works showing for a barn which excels with turf sprinters. GIO NASTY ONE didn’t run badly in a grass sprint to start her career, and he’s another from a trainer who wins at a good rate with turf sprinters; should be well spotted off the speeds. OLD FORT is out of a dam who won on the green, and two of her three starters were (minor) winners; gets Lasix and sports some decent breezes for this debut.

SEVENTH RACE

HAPPY LADY exits a race where the winner posted a Beyer well above par for the class and distance, and that was verified when the top two finishers both returned to score in their next starts; this mare was third there and she meets a seemingly average field for this class level. JENNA DAWN has had her chances but she also has some of the best recent Beyers in this field; obvious threat if she’s able to run to the 42 figures she paired up in her last two. LA DUQUESA was game in defeat when last seen, nearly surviving a duel in a race featuring several speeds; will look to steal it if able to break alertly from the rail.

EIGHTH RACE

LADY LOVE will need some help getting into the race, as she’s stuck on the AE list, but she’s a threat if she gets to run as that last effort does make her a viable threat despite the class rise; needs some help from the pacesetters as a stone closer but if she gets it she’ll be tough in the lane. SABA hasn’t been out since the summer but she has to be considered, as that lone North American start puts her right in the middle of this; note her trouble line in that race. PONTI SCHEME adds blinkers for her first start in nearly two months and she should be more involved in the early stages; inside post helps in that regard.

NINTH RACE

SALSA JACK should get plenty of pace to chase in this finale and that will move him up, as he didn’t get all that much help in his last couple; steady Beyers add to the appeal. IRISH MAJOR is the one to beat off his last couple, including a near-miss in his latest over a surface which he doesn’t even prefer; another with consistent grass figures, and he’s certainly proven himself over this course. BLARP was caught up in a duel when last seen but he can also rate if need be, and that may in fact be his best game; longer price of the two entrants from trainer Gerald Bennett.