ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MALKIA

FIRST RACE

JUMPN’ JAMES showed some late interest when 4th in that last one, and he earned a solid Beyer in defeat two back after racing against the race flow, which favored speed; he’s a closer in need of pace but he should get at least some help from the frontrunners today. UNBRIDLED PIPER cuts back to a sprint, and he’s another who will be looking to make the last run; has back figures that make him an exotics threat. THE GREAT LOUDINI usually turfs but both of his career wins came on the main track; in fact, both wins have come at Tampa, and he has to be respected based on his steady figures on both surfaces.

SECOND RACE

G Q GIRL posted a strong, above-par figure for that win against non-winners of two lifetime in her latest, and that Beyer was essentially verified when the runner-up returned to score with a 50 Beyer; should be ideally set up to make a late run, as there’s a plethora of speed to her inside. MY NIECE LUANNE is a roll of the dice given the long layoff but she does fit the expected pace scenario, and she should be a square price; worth including in exactas, at the very least. MUSIC MAKES SENSE doesn’t win often but she’s another who stands to benefit from a quick, contested pace up front.

THIRD RACE

CHASE RUNNER was very game in defeat in his latest, dueling for the lead from the start and weakening only late, and he also ran well in his turf debut in his prior run; may finally be able to shake loose this time, and under those circumstances he’ll be tough to reel in. LUCKY DUCKY is the main threat, as he has clearly improved dramatically since switching to the green three back; no real excuse in his latest, which is a concern, but he did have a troubled trip two back. G FRIDAY has had his chances but he fits well with this field based on his latest Beyers.

FOURTH RACE

MINNESOTA LUCKY has some nice breezes showing for this debut, especially the work back ion February 24th; dam was unraced but her first starter to race, Mia’s Gusto, was a threetime winner who was best sprinting on the main track. SECRET BOYFRIEND was no threat to the winner but he was flattered when that runner returned to score again in his next start; the one to catch, and likely the one to beat this afternoon. MR. CHEERFUL exits the same race as that rival, and he was only a length behind on the wire despite the fact that it was his first start in a few months; clearly dangerous here with a move forward.

FIFTH RACE

MALKIA earned a solid figure for that starter handicap win last time, and he looked good rallying through the lane en route to that career-best Beyer; will be looking to come from off the pace again but there is speed to her inside and out today, and she should be set up to make another late surge. LADY LOVE eyes her third straight, and she has also been visually impressive; paired up 74 Beyers in each of her last two, and those figures put her right in the middle of this one. MARMALADE was behind Malkia in their last meeting but she has license to improve today in her third start off the layoff.

SIXTH RACE

HALFBACK was hurt by a slow start last time, as his tactical speed is a big part of his game, but with a clean getaway he should be expected to improve today, as this is a sprint lacking an obvious race flow and his versatility could prove a big asset; loves this track and he’s won

two of three starts at this distance. HOLD THE GIANT gets the rail and is another who figures to use his early zip to his best advantage; layoff a concern but he did run well off a long break well back in his running lines, back in 2017. MR LIGHTNING BOY scored when loose on the lead in a paceless race at this distance four back; he gave way two back but yielded only to strong closer Doodle Hopper on the wire.

SEVENTH RACE

REGAL IMAGE was a sharp winner in his grass debut last time, and though he scored on the lead there he showed a bit of a rating gear in his career bow, a sprint; may be able to repeat despite the move into the winner’s ranks if he can avoid a race-long duel on the lead. CHEYENNE’S COLONEL was also on the lead in his latest but he has also shown he can come from off the pace if need be; overmatched in his last two but a solid fit at this level locally. PIRATE BEACH made a premature move when shipped to Gulfstream last time but he was sharp in defeat in local tries prior to that run; early speed should mean he’s prominent from the start.

EIGHTH RACE

SHE READ MY TEXTS was off the board in his latest try but he was in against much better there, and that was a race with plenty of speed, which set up nicely for the closers; this appears to be the opposite race flow, and he could well be the controlling speed in this relatively paceless sprint.

HONEST FIGHT was no match for the top pair but well clear for the show in his return from the layoff, and the race came up quicker than par for the class and distance; may be quick enough to be the one to get first run at the top pick. SCHOTT has some tactical speed, and that gives him an edge on the stone closers if the pace scenario shapes up as expected.

NINTH RACE

BIG TALL DAWG was on the dirt for each of his last two, against Maiden Special Weight company, but his effort under these conditions two back strongly indicates that he is at his best on the green; in a race lacking an obvious race flow he could find himself loose on the lead. LYRICAL NOTE is kin to two winners, including Unlockthepotential, who won a pair of races on the grass, and the dam herself posted her lone career win on this surface; barn wins at a solid rate with debuting maiden claimers. DIPLOME is back from a failed try at Gulfstream but he’s clearly a good fit with these, as he faced better in his lone Tampa try two back; winner of that one came back and scored again vs. a deep field on the Tampa Bay derby undercard.