ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, LUNA FORTIS

FIRST RACE

FIRST DEAL was disqualified for a bumping incident into the stretch last time but he was game to get to the line first against a quality opponent; Beyers stand out, and the fact that he has proven speed but can also rate gives leading rider Samy Camacho some options. WAR BRIDLE was in a strong edition of the Pasco two back, and outrun behind a runaway winner at Gulfstream last time, but his Beyers do fit well here; looking to come from off the pace and he’d benefit from a quick, contested pace. ZORB was a sharp winner in that debut, closing strongly to get up in time; another stretch threat. MERCUSIO could be the one to catch despite the turnback in distance.

SECOND RACE

MADAME YUCCA was no threat in either of her first two starts but those were sprints and she stands to benefit from two turns today, as the barn does well with stretch-outs and the pedigree suggests she’ll appreciate it; should be a square price despite top connections. PLUIE D’AVRIL is another going long for the first time; she could well move forward today with that sprint under her belt in her first start off the layoff. WITH ME WITHOUT ME is easy to like after running 2nd in each of her last three starts but that fact also makes her a horse to try to beat on the win end at a short price.

THIRD RACE

LUNA FORTIS turns back to a sprint after stretching out to a route last time, and she’s in for a tag for the first time; likely winner here if she runs to that 59 Beyer she posted in her only start at this distance, though she does loom a short price. FINIAL has five siblings who have raced and all were winners, including Funfair, who won her own career debut; barn always dangerous with firsters. SLY EMBRACE is kin to two starters, both minor winners; has to deal with the rail but given a clean getaway she could well be a threat right out of the box.

FOURTH RACE

MARIA BONITA goes for a tag for the first time and she should be able to use her early speed to her best advantage here; there’s not a lot of obvious speed in this field and ML favorite Red Curls will spot her position given her running style. CHRISTA’S KITTEN will also be looking to make the last run; she was a closing 2nd in her latest but she benefitted from a much more favorable race flow. RED CURLS has had her chances and she may have to overcome a controlled pace to win this; she has steady figures, however, and she’s down in class for this, like the top pair.

FIFTH RACE

AVENTINE HILL gets back to a sprint and this does seem to be her best game; she was a decent third two back when at seven furlongs, a quickly-run sprint, and she does have enough early zip to stay close. THE GREAT KATH is widest but she may be quick enough to clear the field should jockey Pedro Cotto Jr. choose to push her in the opening stages; move to seven panels may actually work to her advantage. RIGHT ON BY has been in search of that elusive 2nd career win for some time but she did run well enough in that last one, when she rallied for the show; needs pace but a late threat if she gets it.

SIXTH RACE

FRIEND ZONE makes his third start off the layoff and gets back on the turf, which he does seem to prefer to dirt; will be looking to make the last run and he should get enough pace up front to set him up. CAT PRADO wheels right back after a dull effort here last week but his prior Beyers do put him in

the mix with these; has to be expected to improve off that last running line. A GIRLS BESTFRIEND has the speed to contend from the start, and he could prove tough to reel in if able to shake loose and back down the fractions; draws inside some of his main pace rivals.

SEVENTH RACE

LADY GREGORIA was moving well late last time behind a gate-to-wire winner and she stretches back out to a route; relatively easy score going two turns two races back makes her easy to like, especially at a square price. PUBLICIST has won two straight on the main track and he makes his first start off the claim for a barn which wins at a high rate with new faces; clearly prefers a wet track but has to be respected off that last score, and the resulting Beyer. SISTER DRAMA ran down nonwinners of three at a price last time, and though she’s up in class for this she could threaten in the lane with a favorable race flow.

EIGHTH RACE

BONITA SPRINGS draws the hedge and may be the main speed in this field; she was well back on the wire in that last one but a race-long duel against a deep field going long provides her with a convenient but legitimate excuse. SUGAR CANE GIRL finally put it all together in her latest and she’s clearly a threat right back under similar circumstances; could prove the main threat in the lane, as her losses in prior races were better efforts than they may appear. HARDLY MATE makes her first start since November, and though her last two starts prior to the break were sub-par she did have pace excuses in those races.

NINTH RACE

NIGHT RYTHM only takes a short drop in class on paper, from a restricted claimer against nonwinners of two races in six months to non-winners of a single race in six months, but the difference in the quality of competition in these two races is stark; last two sprints were also both key races. HALF TON OF FUN could be the main pacesetter in this field, and has license to steal it if unpressured on the lead from the start; overall win percentage makes it easier to like him “underneath” in exactas as opposed to as a key on top, especially at a short price. SOPHISTICATION was a remote 2nd at this level in his latest, clearly proving he’s a better fit in restricted claimers vs. open company, which he faced in three prior starts.

TENTH RACE

VALENTINE NIBBLES was behind a few of these in her career debut, on the green, but she was moving well through the lane despite some slow splits in the opening stages; decent try in his latest, on the dirt, as she just missed the place. LADY HERRIET is the first starter out of a dam who posted her lone career win sprinting on the dirt but she could be a threat in her debut, as she hails from a barn which does well with firsters in maiden claimers; decent works for this. YOU ARE INVITED exits two above-par races in terms of the winners’ speed figures; should be rolling late given some pace help up front.