ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ROYAL HOLIDAY

FIRST RACE

First race does not excite from a wagering perspective, having drawn only six entries, several of which have never come close to contending. RATTLE’M is the choice on current form, having just run third for maiden $35,000 and now dropping to face maiden $20,000 company. A little bit of progress in each of his three starts. Stablemate COLD WARRIOR has been managed as if his connections once thought something of him, running four times in straight maiden races before starting for maiden $35,000 last out and finishing ninth. He has been tried short and long, even on turf a couple times, and now blinkers return for a cutback in distance and return to the main track. KING DADDIO comes here by way of Tampa, where he twice ran a distant third in three starts against maiden $25,000 rivals there. O’Connell barn shows a positive ROI with its last 377 dirt starters, and last 300 sprinters.

SECOND RACE

GLORIOUS MYSTERY ran poorly first time off the claim, admittedly against much better, finishing 11th against starter stake runners. As poor as that race was, she is kept well above the $12,500 claiming tag for which she was claimed Jan. 31 by starting in this $25,000 tag. Encouraged that her connections are not giving up on her, and she looked good when she broke her maiden by 10 1/4 lengths the day she was claimed. Choice as the value of the leading contenders at her 9-2 morning line. POESIA and MARY LEE AND ME are threats based on their speed and qualifications. ‘MARY soundly beat POESIA when they met Jan. 18, though POESIA came back to run a close second in a subsequent race, while ‘MARY was twice unplaced against better starter runners. BIRD TRAFFIC is the wild card, a horse with a potential to win, but disadvantaged by not having raced since the fall.

THIRD RACE

Contention runs deep in this first-level allowance/$16,000 claimer for Florida-breds on turf, leading this horseplayer to go price shopping. 10-1 MY POINT EXACTLY gets the value nod despite a couple rear-half finishes leading into this race. An eight-time winner, he starts for a successful grass stable, and is a bounce-back candidate following a class drop from a starter stake. Favorable stalking trip expected. FREEDOM MATTERS showed a new dimension in his latest by coming from off the pace, finishing third in a similar spot in a quality try. He managed that close finish despite having the second widest trip in the race, according to Trakus. ZAP DADDY flew home in that same Feb. 24 contest to grab second, though a hot pace up front set up his rally. He may receive a fast pace once again.

FOURTH RACE

COUNTRY STRONG, second in three straight races, lands in an opportune spot to pick up her first victory. She already outperformed many of today’s leading maiden claiming rivals as the runner-up in a Feb. 14 race, and now in her second start following a two-month layoff, might be even sharper. MONEY PURSE and COCKTAILS OR CANDY likely need the top choice to run something short of her best if they are to have a chance at victory. MONEY PURSE was outrun most recently but against far better in a turf sprint. Toss that race out and she fits on her dirt form. COCKTAILS OR CANDY was second Mar. 3 after making the lead, one of her better races over her 13-race career. She might have to work harder to make the front today with CHIEF BOW NO MOVE projected as the pacesetter by TimeformUS.

FIFTH RACE

MAKEALITLEMISCHIEF has performed well in three starts on dirt, and now gets shifted to the grass by

trainer Todd Pletcher. She does not have an obvious turf pedigree, but Pletcher gave her a turf work Feb. 9 at Palm Beach Downs, and presumably liked what he saw from her to try racing her on the lawn.

SUNNIVA raced on the grass twice at Fair Grounds this winter, finishing third on both occasions. She exits a race in which the runner-up returned to win in New Orleans. JUNE ANN ran fourth and fifth a couple of times in grass races in Ireland last year and figures to improve upon her U.S. debut when ninth. Quick works over the past month or so.

SIXTH RACE

ROYAL HOLIDAY, a bit disappointing in his last two starts, could rebound here off the claim by trainer Oscar Gonzalez, who also campaigned this horse earlier in his career. Projected as the pacesetter by TimeformUS, and if able to clear, might get a confidence boost. DREAMY MARTINI is stepped up from $6,250 to $12,500 after being claimed, but that hike is partially offset by him catching a claiming race with conditions. This race is limited to nonwinners-of-three runners or those winless since Sept. 30, compared to an open claimer in which he just finished third Feb. 24. ECLIPSED MOON won a pair here earlier in the meet before a fourth at this level Feb. 28. Yet another that races for new connections after being claimed.

SEVENTH RACE

CASSIES DREAMER competed against the best 2-year-old fillies in the country last year after being astutely claimed from a maiden $50,000 race at Saratoga, picking up graded placings in the Spinaway and Frizette. Freshened after a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she now gets significant class relief in this starter - though the shift to turf is new. Expecting her to handle the grass, being out of a War Front mare and having recorded a number of quick turf works at Palm Meadows. PEACEFUL FEELING proved much the best for maiden $50,000, and now joins a successful claiming outfit. Obviously stepping up in company. Of those exiting a starter Feb. 24, prefer FULL SWING, the runner-up to BELLO PORTE after that one enjoyed racing loose on an easy lead.

EIGHTH RACE

HE’S SMOKIN HOT is reunited with Paco Lopez, who rode him to a pair of blowout victories earlier this winter, and may return to peak form after a couple of so-so races last month. His morning-line price of 7-2 is attractive given the qualifications he brings into this race. WINNING DRIVE dipped down to the maiden $35,000 to break his maiden going away, though that race set up quite nicely for him. Facing winners for the first time but trainer Jason Servis is hitting at a 44-percent clip on the meet.

W W SPRINGTIME ran dismally last out but has worked quickly since, perhaps indicating a return to form is in order. Also breezing quickly is comebacking LUV THIS LIFESTYLE, though she has been doing so on the grass. She is a filly matched against the boys.

NINTH RACE

BERN’ JAMES BERN was a non-factor in the stretch last time, fading to 10th, but is a tough old veteran that has historically rebounded after lackluster efforts. He starts for a winning barn after being claimed for $35,000, and was twice good enough to win at this class level in December. UNBRIDLED HOLIDAY, also taken for $35,000 last out, joins the Jorge Navarro stable after rolling to a fourlength score in the slop. He was twice second vs. company such as this on the grass in August and September. DEVAMANI, out of action for over nine months, finished well to earn minor awards in a pair of first-level allowances last April and May. He went to the sidelines after a close eighth June 7 and now returns as a first-time gelding.

TENTH RACE

FROZEN HANNAH seems the class of the nightcap, dropped in claiming price to $12,500 after a poor seventh for $16,000 when claimed Jan. 3. That race followed an encouraging second for $16,000 in December. Winning connections in her corner. NECESSARY is sharper than most in this lineup, winning a race in January and then running second - though both races came in conditioned claimers. Now she is among open $12,500 stock. YUM YUM seems to be slowly rounding into form, getting closer in her last couple starts when competing for $16,000.