Sueno worth a look for La. Derby upset

The New Orleans route to the Kentucky Derby concludes Saturday at Fair Grounds with the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby heads a stakespacked card that also includes three other Grade 2 stakes – the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, the $400,000 New Orleans Handicap, and the $300,000 Muniz Memorial.

The Grade 3, $100,000 Hutcheson at Gulfstream is Saturday’s only other graded stakes.

Louisiana Derby

War of Will, who is undefeated since moving to dirt three starts ago, is going for a sweep of Fair Grounds’s Kentucky Derby preps after decisively winning the Lecomte and the Risen Star. War of Will has positional speed, which virtually guarantees him a good trip every time. And that, combined with the fact he has already mastered half of the 10 opponents he faces Saturday with the other half not exactly being top-notch Kentucky Derby prospects, makes him formidable.

That said, I feel War of Will’s victory in the Risen Star most recently looks better on paper than it actually was. He tracked an unremarkable pace that was right in line with the other two realistically run main track routes that day, and yet wound up with an only okay Beyer Figure of 92. For that reason, I just have to play against War of Will at a short price, no matter how tough he might be.

I want a new face, and that new face is Sueno. Sueno is improving with every start and ran well last time in the Southwest Stakes. He finished a gaining second after having to wait in traffic between horses late on the far turn, and that came after a show of good early positional speed. And the Southwest, dismissed at the time as a weak prep, certainly looked a lot better when third-place finisher Long Range Toddy came back to upset the highly regarded Improbable in last week’s first division of the Rebel, earning a 95 Beyer.

Of those who finished behind War of Will in the Risen Star, Limonite is in my view the most dangerous. Limonite was blocked inside in the Risen Star from the far turn to midstretch and can improve second start off a freshening, but he must take a significant step forward Beyer-wise.

New Orleans Handicap

Copper Bullet comes into this off a narrowly beaten second in the Razorback. But as nice as that line looks in the past performances, he had no business losing that race. Copper Bullet sat a golden trip off a speed duel that involved Coal Front, who had to go fast early to get over from the 14 hole, and yet Copper Bullet could not get past Coal Front late.

Although I fear Silver Dust, who turned in a career-best performance winning the Mineshaft Handicap last month, Mr. Buff is my play.

Mr. Buff is going for his fifth straight win, and though his win streak was compiled at cold Aqueduct, his powerful score most recently in the Jazil Stakes was a legitimately big effort. It should also be noted that one year ago Mr. Buff, who projects as the controlling speed, gave Backyard Heaven all he wanted in an allowance race, and that one followed with a strong score in the Alysheba to briefly rank as one of the best older horses around.

Sunland Park Derby

Thanks to an early draw, the Warrior can include this Sunday feature, the weekend’s other Kentucky Derby points prep.

Mucho Gusto and Another twist a fate are likely to be the first two favorites, but I have questions about them. Mucho Gusto ran away with the Robert Lewis last time, but that was over a soft group in the slop, and he won’t see a sloppy track Sunday. And even though the only horse Mucho Gusto finished behind was Improbable, he’s not in the same league with him. The gap between them in the Los Alamitos Futurity was considerable, five lengths.

As for Another twist a fate, he’s been a freak on Golden Gate’s synthetic track, but he goes on dirt this time and he was badly beaten in his one prior dirt attempt.

I’m going with Cutting Humor. Cutting Humor’s check into the first turn and subsequent wide trip most recently in the Southwest wasn’t enough to excuse his fade to seventh. But he rates another chance because of his game second two starts back in an allowance route at Gulfstream to Bourbon War, who came back to finish a fast-closing second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.