ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 12, FEDERAL CASE

FIRST RACE

OH DANNY BEAR hard to ignore off last couple of tries, the improving 3yo just missing behind Smooth As who came back to finish 3rd with 55 Beyer for $12,500 tag in next start. TOTONO could be the sleeper taking big drop after failing to menace following very poor start launching career at the MSW level. Has shown enough in a.m. to merit respect for this tag. SHANGHAI GO GO has the speed to try to steal this one if away running from rail.

SECOND RACE

SILENT TIGER might have the speed to register the upset if aggressively handled in a relatively pace less affair. Wasn’t badly beaten by much better after showing early foot, dropping back, returning to the lawn 17 days earlier. BELGRANO the logical choice returning for straight tag out of starter stakes when falling too far back, left with too much to do at the end. GET THE FACTS benefitted from slow pace but still could not hold on when haltered for more than half this tag last month. Winless in quite some time but still contentious with this crowd.

THIRD RACE

THERE GOES BELLA continues to prove a popular item at claim box and has held form for this tag no matter what barn he walks over from. Second best last time behind red hot and recent starter winner Grace’s Drama. QUEEN ROLLER beat this same kind when also changing hands via claim box last time, the runner-up flattering effort returning to beat same kind next time. PRINCESS KNOLL showed some improvement for new barn, can be along for at least a share despite the hike to open company.

FOURTH RACE

GOLDEN DECISION back to more suitable level after being a bit over-matched in last couple. Facing much softer today. AREYOUTALKINGTOME dropped to the category to be second best getting back on the turf, late running sort just needs some help up front. GILDED WARRIOR GILDED WARRIOR GILDED WARRIOR drops and looks like the controlling speed if Paco gets aggressive with him early.

FIFTH RACE

SOUPER STONEHENGE exits useful two turn bow on turf when encountering some early trouble now turns back to a sprint, should be legged up for big effort at second asking. Has shown talent on the main in the a.m. GLORY OF FLORIDA second best behind slow starting, fast closing firster Great Success while showing marked improvement at second asking. Could be ready for best yet. ROCK IT TOTHEMOON debuts off a series of promising works. Might fit off bench with state breds.

SIXTH RACE

SMOKEN DEB comes off good effort against tough starter allowance types and may have the speed to run away from this modest looking group. BRUNETTE PRINCESS BRUNETTE PRINCESS also ran well vs. starter company last time when second best and easily so behind red hot A Bit of Both. Should chase throughout. QUESTIONOFTHEDAY gets a little class relief off somewhat disappointing local bow on grass. Back to what appears her favorite surface. Could be the sleeper.

SEVENTH RACE

DING DONG DITCH steadied numerous times, on final bend and again in early stretch before falling short with closing bid failing as tepid choice for this tag last month. Stays put off claim for high percentage barn. SILVER BEACH chased home preferred hoice in their previous encounter but obvious a good fit for this tag. ALIEN INVASION has been away a long time and shipped all the way back from Fair Grounds for this spot. Has some back efforts that put him in thick of this.

EIGHTH RACE

MAGIC MAKER got in some traffic down the backstretch, steadying several times in traffic, did well to finish third while waking up a bit returning to grass. Might prove right one if able to repeat. SACRIFICE didn’t have much excuse when second best at 8-5 last time but still one to fear. VINA back to what may prove her favorite surface while dropping back to the bottom today.

NINTH RACE

MR. MACFADDEN hard to fault in his current form with runner-up from last flattering effort with easy N2L win of his own next time. MASS APPROVAL turned in big effort out of nowhere to be second best behind 3-2, class dropping winner, should be right in thick of this one if able to repeat that try. PIRATE’S TREASURE dueled ultimate winner, faded late disappointing as even money choice vs. same kind earlier this morning. Right back against same kind off the claim.

TENTH RACE

ZAO’S DREAMS the only multiple winner in the field and in good hands off the claim. Shaky nod in wide open 3yo turf claimer. QUICK POINT continues to improve and well spotted dropping back out of tougher starter company. TEENAGE IDOL comes off best yet although might not get away with as leisurely a pace scenario this time around.

ELEVENTH RACE

APRECIADO exits career best performance and in new and dangerous hands off the claim. Right back with another forward move. THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN another of any number of contenders in this one. Did not have the cleanest of trips when failing as the post time favorite vs. same kind last time. CARLOS SIXES turned in near career best effort to defeat softer N2L’s earlier this month although Paco runs to National Honor.

TWELFTH RACE

FEDERAL CASE over-matched in the Holy Bull now turns back to what appears to be a much easier spot. Addition of blinkers could be key, ran away from no less a work mate than recent winner Vino Rosso with the shades on last month at PBD. TOPPER T ran well in the Swale despite some trouble now shortens up and should come running best of all at the end in a race loaded with pace. LUTSKY exits what figures to be a much needed effort when hanging in tough to wire behind odds on Mucho.

THIRTEENTH RACE

LIVE LIKE LARRY a fresh face to a weak category in sharp hands and with some breeding for the turf being a half to two time G3 grass winner Daddy Nose Best. Might just be good enough off the bench to beat these. WINK AND A NOD comes off another improved showing since switching to turf. Should trip out well from the rail. JUST KITTEN YOU right back with same kind off the claim. On fringes several times with these.