ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, STYLE ICON

FIRST RACE

REMSTIN appeared to need that race two back while returning from an extended layoff and he was better last time in a race that was dominated on the lead; third off that long layoff with the back races to easily contend with this group. QUEST FOR FIRE seems unlikely to ever get back to that 92 Beyer earned on debut but he fired out to the lead on a good pace over that sloppy track first off the claim and he was chasing from the outside on a day when the rail was the place to be las time; has speed from the outside. AIR ON FIRE and BOURBON DID IT an entry likely to go favored and either could easily win this, though they have both been more disappointing than anything else overall. AIR ON FIRE crushed a very weak field to finally break his maiden three back, then went to turf, and he faced a much better filed last time when settling for 3rd.

SECOND RACE

KERRY’S RING ran well in her open company debut vs. a good field and she improved in her NY debut last time while on a solid pace until the late stages; part of an entry here, which hurts her price, but she is going to be tough with a similar effort in this spot. STERLING BEAUTY was only third best behind KERRY’S RING last time but she was racing on in the stretch, and she took a step forward in her turf debut two back while gaining ground all the way despite having to alter course in the stretch. DEARLY DECLARED’s first two starts on turf have come vs. open company and she has shown fine tactical speed in those race while finding the competition a bit too tough; projects for a good trip in this spot.

THIRD RACE

PROFESSOR SNAPE has managed to win just one of his last five starts sprinting, but he has run well in all of them and is in better form than it may appear at first glance; was forced to contest that pace with two different rivals last time before falling to a closer who is back in form, and his new trainer is underrated in every regard. MO SOUL won the first two starts of his career early on, including a stakes race, before missing a lot of time; has now won three in a row since returning, including his NY debut over a sloppy track last time; has speed. TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK rallied to win three back over a wet track and he may get another favorable pace scenario in this spot; turns back after stretching out for his last two.

FOURTH RACE

STYLE ICON won’t be getting many more chances after finishing either 2nd or 3rd in each of her last six starts; thought she got a little unlucky two back when having to steady in the stretch before re-rallying too late, and she also finishing gamely in that last one while earning a new top figure. SAN SARIA improved in her second career start to rally after being taken back early and she was facing a solid field that day; didn’t have much pace to run at in that race and she may have a better set up here as she picks up Alvarado. CHARREADA was favored in both turf starts last year, including her season finale when facing a talented rival in Semper Sententiae going longer; fits well in this field and she may still have some improvement in her.

FIFTH RACE

SHARPIN didn’t necessarily stretch out that effectively last year but she has faced some solid fields out of town and defeated that field at Keeneland easily when dropped in class for the first time; finds a nice spot for her NY debut. MALIBU MISCHIEF gave way readily when last seen over that sloppy track and got some time off, but she had run a solid race under pressure one start prior and she looks is going to be tough in this race if ready off the layoff; getting significant class relief and she has speed. HARKNESS likely to take money in this spot as she also drops in class, and she has some back races that stand out in this field while facing some much better horses; turf to dirt

to go along with the class drop.

SIXTH RACE

WHISKEY IS MY WINE debuted at this level last month and while he wound up fading to fourth in the stretch, that came only after he laid down a fast pace under pressure in a race that went to closers; tough here with an easier pace scenario if running as well as he did first time. CRYPTO GOLD was given a perfect trip into that fast pace set by the top one last time and he rallied to win, only to be disqualified for bothering QUALITY CHOICE in the stretch as they both went for a hole between horses; well-bred filly tries for some redemption. QUALITY CHOICE was off the layoff in that fastpaced race last time and he was ultimately bothered in the stretch while rallying into contention; had the setup there and not sure if he was ever going to outrun CRYPTO GOLD to the wire, but he was bothered and that race was a step forward for him.

SEVENTH RACE

PANTHER HIT had control of that pace when wiring maidens two back, but she was dominant in that win and she has actually run well in all three of her starts so far; good effort in that stakes race last time despite being forced wide and she projects for a better trip in this race. GO ROSE just missed in stakes company in her second career start then went into a couple of group races to close out her 3yo campaign in Germany; stateside debut came in a race that was run at a walking pace and she was trying gamely in that spot to no avail. ENGLISH SOUL has so far been better on dirt, and she is quite good on that surface, but her only starts on turf came very early on and she did not run poorly in those efforts; starts back on grass with plenty of quality and she has dangerous speed.

EIGHTH RACE

REGAL RETORT got a bit of a late start to her career but she is coming along nicely for top connections and she has been facing some better horses than the group she will be taking on here; has tactical speed, is 2 for 2 with Franco and she handles any kind of going. CARRERA CAT has come into her own since deciding to concentrate on dirt and enters her first start vs. open company looking for a fourth straight win; just held on and an MTO last time while finding her figure decline 10 points, but she was solid in that race while setting a quick pace under pressure and then holding to the wire. AUNT BABE doesn’t win very often but she shows up every time and can take advantage if this pace develops the right way in front of her.

NINTH RACE

GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY improved in her turf debut two back then faced a much tougher field for the level in her next start; dropping significantly in class for this while also getting a rider upgrade. TRACI’S GIRL has shown good speed in all of her starts and she looks to be clear early in this spot; wilted readily last time but that was off the layoff over yielding ground and the race was run in a downpour. MAGICAL ROMANCE was a big price in her debut but she ran pretty well in that spot to get 3rd, and she faced much tougher in her second turf start; didn’t run as well in her final turf start as a 3yo but that came over yielding ground; threat if ready off the layoff.