ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, DYNAMITE KITTEN

FIRST RACE

FROSTED ROSE debuted over this distance at Laurel and was bumped at the start before settling at the back of that field saving ground, and he was racing on very late to make some ground behind an impressive winner once finally asked, before galloping out well; colt from the family of turf stakes winners Summer Front and Laragh can improve with that race out of the way. DAN THE MAN CAN debuted in one of these restricted MSW events on dirt earlier in the meet and showed good speed before weakening in the stretch; dam is a sister to the multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Partly Mocha and sire Can the Man, while mostly a dirt horse, is out of a dam who was a group winner on turf in France. SUMMER SANGRIA has speed on both sides of his pedigree while debuting for 2yo ace Wesley Ward; dam went 0-1 on her career but is a sister to four-time turf winner Kibosh.

SECOND RACE

LADY’S ISLAND a new face shipping in with strong form to back her up having won five of her last six while earning some figures that tower over her rivals in this spot; recent good run has come over the kind of wet tracks that she clearly relishes, but she has run well over fast dirt, as well, and she looks like the lone speed in here as she makes her first start for a very good trainer. NO DEAL got back into good form when returned to the main track at the end of last year and she is getting some needed class relief for this after facing tougher in her last two starts; has races that will give her a look here if she can pull the right trip. CLAIRVOYANT LADY and ARCHUMYBABY both go off the claim for Rudy as a dangerous entry, having combined for 17 wins while patrolling the claiming ranks around here over the past couple of years. CLAIRVOYANT LADY’s form may be a little dirtied up after some difficult trips recently, while her mate is looking to rebound from a disappointing effort behind the hard-hitting Fair Regis when last seen back in mid-June.

THIRD RACE

BAYERN’S MIRAGE drew a very tough post out wide but he may be set to step forward as he drops for his second start after chasing a sharp winner on grass first time out; bred more for this surface and goes for a trainer who has a history of using the turf to dirt move with great success. BAHAMIAN PRINCE by a new sire in Bahamian Squall (0-3 so far with his first time starters) who was a graded stakes-winning sprinter and ran perhaps the best race of his career when 2nd in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt up here in 2013; interested that he ships up here to debut in this restricted MSW event for a trainer who can have one ready to fire at first asking. BIG ROYAL LINEAGE by a sire who wins with about 9% of his juvenile first time starters and out of a dam who hails from the family of A. P. Indy and Summer Squall; Rudy has already won with a pair of 2yos at the meet.

FOURTH RACE

EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH is dropping in class for the first time while making her third start as a 3yo, and she didn’t run poorly at all vs. a much better field in her seasonal debut, though she did use her inside draw to her advantage that day; draws toward the inside again and a similar effort will lead to a better performance vs. these rivals. MEMORIES ETERNAL ran well in her first two turf starts sprinting, and was unlucky not to win two back after completely blowing the start; went evenly on the stretch out last time but that was against a better field and can have another chance as she drops back down in class, this time with blinkers on. JOULE’s two turf starts to date both came at the MSW level and she has been rained off both times she was entered for the price; gets her chance here in a race where she may be able to pull a trip without much speed signed on.

FIFTH RACE

LUNE LAKE got rained off in her seasonal debut early in the meet and gave way after chasing the pace early; better on this surface and she ran well in both turf sprints vs. claiming competition last year, including that runnerup effort up here last summer in a race that was dominated on the lead by a sharp winner. TIPLE faced some tougher competition upon arrival here last year and cutting back to sprint combined with the class relief did the trick last time, as she rallied gamely into a fast pace to prevail; better sprinting, for now, and dangerous right back. RED HOT DAME closed from far back to just get up in her debut last October for Pletcher then got in over her head in her next two starts; drops in class for the first time and gets back to sprinting on turf after showing improved speed in her first two starts for Maker.

SIXTH RACE

GRAY NILE has not won a race since breaking his maiden over course and distance last summer with an 80 Beyer, but he has only made two starts on dirt during that time and one of those came vs. much better horses; last race is a concern, especially when combined with the class drop, but he is supposed to be tough in here if he can still run. FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN won his debut around two turns last May then managed just two more starts for the year, both of those vs. much better horses; dropped off the layoff and settled for 3rd as the favorite after stumbling at the start and bringing a game challenge to the frontrunning winner around the turn. EDDY DIRT outfinished FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN late in that last one but he was opportunistic there while sitting in 3rd as that rival went to take on the front-running winner; lone win to date came in his only dirt start around two turns.

SEVENTH RACE

DYNAMITE KITTEN got herself beat when badly blowing both turns in her return to turf back in April but she improved from there to defeat allowance rivals two back, and she was unlucky last time when unable to get clear of traffic in the stretch; going good now and is tactical enough to get a trip as she cuts back to the mile. WISH UPON was in god form before being forced to the sidelines for an extended layoff at the end of 2017 but she has come back to form quickly since returning; good effort last time to hang on grimly down to deep stretch before just getting outfinished at the end. BROKEN BORDER is at her best around one-turn and she exits a convincing win going seven at Belmont last time (her first win in nearly two years) but she can get this distance and her last two starts suggest she is back in top form; enters right back at the same level looking to go back to back, something she has done before.

EIGHTH RACE

MY SISTER NAT made her stateside debut in an oddly run race that was stretched out early by a longshot pacesetter and she was rallying late while never really materializing as a threat; half to now stablemate Sistercharlie can do quite a bit better than that and will likely appreciate the added ground based on her form in France as a 3yo. VIOLET BLUE ran some nice races off the layoff last summer before moving into some tougher races and failing to be competitive; still has something to prove but she has had some excuses so far this year, including in that last one when failing to get through a hole in the stretch and having to steady, which likely cost her at least 3rd money. MIGHTY SCARLETT exits the same race as stablemate MY SISTER NAT where she just wasn’t that sharp while racing on late; lightly-raced 4yo was a strong winner over course and distance up here last summer when overcoming traffic and she also endured a tough trip in her 2019 debut at Churchill; dangerous if able to rebound.

NINTH RACE

MARCONI took advantage of the strong rail on Belmont Stakes Day to win the Grade 2 Brooklyn but he ran pretty well to win his prior two starts when stretched back out in distance and his tactical speed once again gives him the edge over main rival ROCKETRY; was no match for that better field last time but he is a better fit here and distance seems to be no trouble for him. ROCKETRY immediately won a pair of marathon stakes upon switching over to dirt at the end of last year and earned back to back triple digit Beyers in the process; hasn’t quite come back to form so far this year while finishing behind MARCONI in all four starts but he has had circumstances working against him along the way; think he can reverse those decisions but it’s now or never. PATCH finished 3rd in the Belmont while making just his fifth career start back in 2017 and while he was no threat in that race he did appears to stay the longer distance; appeared to be prepping over turf while making his 2019 debut for a new trainer.

TENTH RACE

KLICKITAT debuted on turf late last year for a different trainer and ran a pretty compelling race to eventually finish a close 3rd while appearing to be a horse in need of a run, before going to dirt and failing to step forward; returns on grass making his first start for a trainer who ended the Belmont meet on a good run and has been putting in some long breezes to prepare for his 3yo debut; Jerkens 3 for his last 11 off trainer changes on turf, with seven of those runners hitting the board and a $2.81 ROI; tough post. SALTKING was a huge price when last seen getting a conservative ride and then finishing gamely once clear to just miss with a field-best 74 Beyer; makes his first start vs. fellow NY-breds while getting a trainer change and his running style may not be predetermined with only two starts behind him. ZECHARIAH’s debut early last year appeared to be a spin to get him some experience as he continued to lose position throughout the race before ultimately winding up last, and then moving out late to pass some horses; improved on that run while showing more speed in his next start and he is once again second time out, this time as a new gelding.