ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, LION LORD

FIRST RACE

Like everything I see going on with LION LORD. He’s got back form adequate to win this race and was claimed from a comeback start July 6 by connections who seemed to have a plan. That plan was move back to dirt, take blinkers off, and bump up a level in class. Pair of recent bullet drills and while the sample is very small the trainer has strong numbers with first-claimed runners.

BO VUK taken on drop to $12.5K two back and the N1X allowance run last time looks a lot like a stepping-stone to this spot. GOLD MAN edged by No More Talk when they met June 15 but I’ll take the old-timer to reverse that decision.

SECOND RACE

FIVE STAR PERFECT has in my mind the best turf-sprint pedigree in the field. Debuts for $25K but is a homebred owned by the trainer and probably this is just what a realistic approach looks like. Tightly bunched works since he hit the tab going a half-mile June 21. No holes in work pattern for first-timer MINE TO HOLD, whose trainer wins steadily with debut runners and whose sire, Orientate, is quietly a decent turf influence in races at one mile or less. Trainer Peccoraro sent a firster from DEL last week who disappointed me, since I thought he’d win, but ran all right, an YESS PEC looks at least mildly live. Don’t mind this pedigree for a dirt sprint and the bug rider is rolling right now. THIRD RACE

Omaha Beach and War of Will a couple prominent current exceptions to the general rule that War Fronts are better off on turf than dirt. DOWN IN FRONT’s lone start was a tepid third but that was dirt and now, off a Colt’s Neck Farm turf breeze, she gets the surface switch she probably wants. Listed odds, however, would feel like an underlay in an apparently closely matched group. Firster

AWESOME EXCHANGE been lighting up the work tab at PEN since coming in from Sunland in spring. On pedigree grass should be fine, but something here makes it feel like she won’t quite run to her flashy breezes. Hard to pin down pace players with firsters and lightly raced horses but ECHO OF VICTORY could wind up in front, a great place to be on the LRL turf course much of this season generally and last week in particular.

FOURTH RACE

As a mid-priced alternative in a race where the favorites ought not scare anyone, ANGELINAS STAR gets the nod as the likely leader under a seven-pound bug. Might not stop if able to clear. Those aforementioned favorites are

WEE MONIE CREEK and HAIL THE QUEEN. WMC has the rail but perhaps not quite enough pace to get to the front, which can make things tricky. Also, even 6f is pushing it with her. HTQ was claimed for $2.5X this tag three back and hasn’t panned out. Got the drop to this level and as a mild fourth at 4-5, so why would you take another short price?

FIFTH RACE

Trainer A Delacour already is known as a trainer who will have a first-timer ready to roll even when they don’t have an eye-catching work pattern like debuting CHAPALU does. Flatter is a versatile sire and the Black Minnaloushe mare adds some turf speed on the bottom side. ON THE

TURF unfortunately for him was rained off his intended turf debut July 18, an easier spot than this. Still think he could move up on the lawn and he should be close to if not on the lead. T Proctor barn finally heated up in recent weeks after a chilly first half of the season, but they’re still not one you look for when it comes to first-time starters like FOOD AND WINE. The horse does have the whiff of a talent but might need a race and / or more distance plus poor rail draw.

SIXTH RACE

Have noted with some surprise a number of horses by Maclean’s Music doing some decent work when switched to turf. That’s the sire of TREASURE TIME, whose lone previous turf start came at a higher level and before she began racing in blinkers. Seems like a decent chance she makes the front here, and that can mean a lot right now on the Laurel lawn. SINGLE MISSION the other main candidate to get to the lead, but she is more a frontrunner than a horse with much actual speed, and I think if T Time is tapped for some early gas she can outfoot her.

WHO U GONNA CALL’s first claiming tag, which comes in her ninth start, is just $16K. The class relief can help only if she gets out of her recent doldrums.

SEVENTH RACE

ARRIFANA has obvious pedigree and works and will be bet accordingly in her career debut, which comes in an MSW seemingly ripe for a sharp first-timer. TRAPPED N

MY MIND ought to like the cut back from two turns, ran well enough to win while sprinting four races back and had trouble in her more recent sprint, and might wind up an overlay if the money shows on Arrifana. Trainer T Beattie has two in from PEN for this card including OH BABY

BABY, who races on a new circuit while changing barns. Not seeing a ton on the form but am seeing Beattie with a boxcar first-time-trained-by number.

EIGHTH RACE

TASHMOO’s lone start came nearly a year ago in an NY-bred turf route, so this $16K maiden-claiming turf sprint is a fresh start. The four-race work pattern has a very positive feel to it and think this horse is spotted for action in long-layoff return. Longshots who close from the far behind the leaders for a high placing in their career debut - horses like NUN — often fail to repeat that performance level second time out. Homebred first-timer

THREE TO GET READY might indeed be ready.