ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, TRICKY MAGICIAN

FIRST RACE

CUDDLE KITTEN has won three straight on dirt, including his last two for this trainer at Parx while using his positional speed; projects to make the early lead from the rail as she tries nine furlongs for the first time. COLORINCOLONEL has won three times since claimed for $10k by this owner, including a pair of blowouts following a short layoff; fits here with her good race and can get the distance. STAY FOND hasn’t raced since February where she was forced to try to keep close to the pace and couldn’t make a late impact; capable mare earned a new top figure in her first start for Rice and she has run well over this distance at Saratoga in the past.

SECOND RACE

MY ROXY GIRL was a bit of an overachiever while winning five times for her prior connections, with all of those wins coming at Aqueduct; may not necessarily be the type to improve for top claiming connections but she is competitive here without coming forward and can land a nice trip here tracking the speed. SHIMMERING MOON couldn’t hold the top one when last seen back in April but she was holding good form at the time and has plenty of races that make her tough in here; rail draw may force her hand a bit but she’s a contender off the layoff. BERTRANDA draws outside and gets some class relief after having to face the talented Kept True when rained off the turf last time; hasn’t won yet in NY but has been facing better since arriving.

THIRD RACE

SARGEANT DRIVE a maiden on the grass but has several solid efforts showing vs. quality competition on this surface; briefly improved when switched to dirt late last year but he hasn’t carried on over that surface and he is supposed to be tough at this level as he switches back for a new trainer. JEROME AVENUE exiting a poor effort in his first Saratoga start but that was a very tough 3yo allowance field he was trying to go with; drops and moves to an inside post with some races to point to that would give him a look here. BAD BOY has held his own vs. some nice horses early on and the class drop did the trick last time as he easily defeated a modest field of maiden claimers up here over the Mellon course; threat right back for top connections.

FOURTH RACE

SHUT THE BOX made one start for these connections back in March, where he finished a gaining 3rd around two turns, and he was claimed back right away out of his next start; been laid up for over 130 days but appears to be logically spotted and like him cutting back to this distance. CALIFORNIA NIGHT has used his natural speed to win three times from six starts this year, including a career-best effort over this distance in May at Belmont; drops after taking a shot in stakes company last time to no avail. POTOMAC put together a couple of fast races for Rudy earlier this year then was entered back quickly when claimed by these connections and finished a very good second while against the track on Belmont Stakes weekend; didn’t run well as the favorite up here on opening day but that distance is too far for him; drops and cuts back.

FIFTH RACE

DANGEROUS EDGE is by a sire off to a good start with his first crop of runners (Competitive Edge 4 for 13 so far with his first time starters) and this colt is from a three-time winning dam whos is a sister to the graded stakes-winning juvenile Conquest Harlanate; draws nicely on the outside for Weaver, who is 5 for his last 15 with 2yos debuting in state-bred MSW dirt sprints (33%, $7.06 ROI). BRILLIANT BROOKS a NY-bred by top sire Candy Ride (14% with 2yo firsters) and from the family stakes-winning sprinters Pooska Hill

and Minetonightsfirst; brought $250k as a yearling and debuts for a top trainer of juveniles. TIZ

THE LAW a half-brother to multiple stakes-place dirt sprinter Awestruck from a solid female family and by a sire who is off to a hot start with his 2yos (5 for 16 so far with 2yo first time starters); has some nice works showing for this.

SIXTH RACE

PROSPERITY debuted over course and distance last month and was finishing gamely from off the pace while staying toward the inside in the stretch; set to improve with that race behind her as she switches to Rosario. TAN AND TIGHT finished a couple of lengths ahead of PROSPERITY in that same race after contesting the pace with runnerup First Wave and settling for 3rd; took a step forward on grass and may be the horse to beat in this spot. BYE BYE NICKY ran very well while closing ground first time out at Gulfstream and she improved off that run to finish a good 2nd again in her NY debut while earning an 82 Beyer; hasn’t gone forward off that positive start and has now lost three straight as the favorite with declining figures; tough if she can bounce back but hard to take another short price on her.

SEVENTH RACE

CERRETALTO got caught up contesting the pace last time while returning from a layoff and weakened after being in contention at the top of the stretch; needs his best to defeat this field but is capable and he can revert to stalking this time as he puts races together for a trainer having a strong meet up here. BINKSTER challenged CERRETALTO from the outside and took that race over last time, only to get run over late by a rejuvenated T Loves a Fight; has other speed to deal with here but his best race makes him tough to deal with and he is in good form right now. H MAN kept improving following the claim in January and he put together three strong wins in a row before falling as a heavy favorite when last seen; dangerous bounce-back candidate has the ability to stalk in a race with some speed-types signed on.

EIGHTH RACE

FETCHING the lone 3yo in this field and she has never raced on dirt before, so there are things for her to overcome, but she has shown some talent in her first three starts and she already owns a win over this distance; Afleet Alex filly is a full-sister to a five-time dirt route winner and Casse has good numbers with this move - winner last out, turf to dirt, route: 6 for his last 19, 32%, $4.11 ROI. HELD ACCOUNTABLE took awhile to come back to form following a promising 2yo campaign but she found herself at the end of last year when posting an impressive win over a mile and then stretching out to this distance to win again; faced a very tough field off the layoff over that wet track and did well to be 3rd while earning a new top figure. LUCKY

MOVE faced NY-bred for the first time over course and distance last month and she rolled from last to first after coming wide while also earning a new top figure; facing better here but she fits on form.

NINTH RACE

HIERARCHY hasn’t quite lived up to his pedigree while winning just 1 for 9 so far, though he has been holding his own vs. some pretty tough rivals since breaking his maiden; cuts back out of a series of longer routes but he is no plodder and can use his inside draw to his advantage for new connections. FINANCIAL SYSTEM started off racing cheaply for top connections and won each of his first two starts, before stepping up some and acquitting himself well up here last summer; closing style works against nd him but he ran well tow back in a race where the distance seemed to get to him at the end; good fit here. BELGRANO was claimed out of a win for $35k in January and appeared to stay at about the same level in his first couple of starts for Abreu, but he was bet strongly in his NY debut last time and ran to the backing to score easily; facing slightly tougher here but has the tactical speed to pull the right trip.

TENTH RACE

TRICKY MAGICIAN is a maiden on turf but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t run well on this surface; he faced much better horses right along while ambitiously-placed as a 2yo, and he was right there in the mix until midstretch in his 3yo debut, before weakening late; draws outside as he takes the drop but he can improve quickly if managing to get a trip. DAKOTA’S DUDE required a drop into the claiming ranks to break his maiden, but he came right back in his next start to gamely prevail in a listed stakes race with a much-improved figure and he continued to keep tougher company while in Florida throughout the winter; first NY start came at this level with a trainer change to Abreu and he may have run his best race yet that day while strongly keeping up with the pace and then overpowering Spinning Kitten late; threat right back at the same level with the tactical speed to keep close. ARTEMUS BRIDGE may have found a tough field for the level but he appears to have been claimed by a sharp trainer with turf in mind and his form has been competitive, if not fast, since the start; good post looking to step up at a price.