ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, GENNIE HIGHWAY

FIRST RACE

FIRTH hasn’t won since November 2018 and doesn’t appear to be getting better right now, so here we go drop from higher claiming / starter races into this conditioned claimer. She just generally clearly fits here, but beyond that appears to be controlling pace from the rail. Granted, speed on the LRL turf wasn’t as strong last week as during other times this season, but she still can take full advantage. BRUSHING gets the same drop as the top pick but hasn’t shown quite as much on grass and could be at a pace disadvantage. HEY MABEL been wide in three of her turf starts but maybe that’s just now she needs to run.

SECOND RACE

It’s either SUPER JOHN, PERCENTAGE, or a higher-priced guess in this 2yo turf-mile maiden. Will side with SUPER JOHN, who was very decent in career debut, a PRX short sprint in which he just appeared to run out of ground when finding best stride. Limited sample but John Servis 3-8 wins first-time Lasix. You’d imagine C Clement might have given NY-based Percentage a shot at SAR if they were looking for major second-race improvement. IRISHTOWN decent in two dirt sprints to get things started but neither those races nor his pedigree shouts out turf potential.

THIRD RACE

Realize MARCO ISLAND got to the front and was facing only five when he ran away with an N2L starter / claimer last out. But it looks like he’s been building to this peak essentially all year, and I won’t be surprised if he not only stays at the level but even exceeds that last-start peak this time. Gets quite a bit of weight from many here as a 3yo with sharp bug rider named. LIELIELIE one of two entered by C Gonzalez, with the second, Three Phase, looking a little inferior and like a horse put in to make sure the race went for his better-qualified barn-mate. Lie turned things around second after claim and with a class drop to $25K, getting eligible for this spot, two starts ago and probably still can come forward. CAPE LOOKOUT away from races a long, long time (tendon therapy sort of time, but that’s just a guess) but even as a 5yo appears to be on an improving pattern and would be no surprise if he can work a trip from the rail.

FOURTH RACE

Thrice-started TAPPAHANNOCK took a considerable step forward last time in turf debut and had meaningful trouble in a maiden race one level above this. Dropped while in form, which we like with a horse like this. ABOVE

IT ALL showed at least a little affinity for grass in last two starts but appeared to be out-quicked in sprints, not surprise given pedigree. Rhythm of this two-turn grass race could better suit. Liked MIDSKIPMAN a bit last time as a forward factor in second turf route, but he wound up nearer the outside fence than the lead. Interesting seeing barn that well knows the levels on this circuit hold firm for $16K.

FIFTH RACE

Not a great sign seeing BOLD TREK, a horse showing a $45K auction price, dropped from $40K down to $16K in third start while coming back from a seven-week break. But combining the turf-sprint debut, where he ran into a blowout winner, and recent work, as good a guess as any here. COOL MAN CLETUS probably is a “more likely winner” than Bold Trek, and despite the 12 losses I nearly took him on top because his two turf tries look better than the dirt races. In the end, just couldn’t eat the short price on this type. HERE COMES MONGO a potential improver at a price. Second start, first Lasix, quick recent drill.

SIXTH RACE

FIFTEEN K had early trouble and ground loss in an $8K N2L claiming start last out he might have “needed” after a layoff. Could be set to improve enough to knock out that second win down at his lowest level now. SQUIBNOCKET been grinding away or about 3X this tag, mainly on turf, and were a race at this level on grass he’d look decent, but much less certain on dirt. TOWSON back from long break with only a three-workout pattern yet suspect she’s ready for something competitive.

SEVENTH RACE

GENNIE HIGHWAY caught the eye in her career debut and was a prompt second-out winner with blinkers added. Was surprised / disappointed with how close to the pace she was last time since she seems much more a settleand-finish sort of filly. Got to lugging in late last time, too, which in part means there’s more room to improve. Gets as much as 12 pounds from some of these with 7-pound bug named. If SEXYAMA had her same form lines (faced far tougher last time) and was dropping into this spot while not entered for a tag, which connections could have done, I’d have taken her first, but the fact she’s for sale at the $25K level when she need not be strikes me as somewhat suspect. WILDCATTIN’s lone turf race easily the best of her six career starts, but led there in a short field of maidens, ideal circumstances that can inflate performance.

EIGHTH RACE

Short price on MYSTIC TIMES but she’s rail-drawn speed in easily the softest spot of her career and doesn’t appear to be on the verge of totally losing her form, so I’ll just eat the tiny odds. QUALITY MATTERS was the better-priced alternative that tempted as I think she’ll handle first grass try as she class drops, but 5-2, her morning-line price, does not exactly feel like a bargain, either. TOP HAT

HUSTLE lightly raced and can find more back on grass, but seemingly low ceiling based on returns from those first two turf starts.