ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, EMPTY TOMB

FIRST RACE

BAYTOWN JIMBO has an iffy 1-14 win mark welcome to this $16K N2L claimer. Owner-trainer got a decent result when dropping to $25K N2L claiming and appears to mean business now down at lowest level for a rich purse. Suppose the quick turnaround would be of some concern though this horse is better drawn than contenders like INCHESKY and PARTISAN DIVIDE, both marooned far outside. Inchesky was a mile clear of third when second of 10 for a mere $10K tag at SUF, bumped back up to face better than these last out, can settle in right about at a contending level based on last form cycle. Last three on turf for Partisan Divide - 8 1/2f, 6f, 12f. Also tried two turns dirt, one turn dirt. I’m dizzy. Overall takeaway is horse was making progress til failing to stay the long distance last time.

SECOND RACE

Delacour barn one of the more reliable in the region with first-timers and not only does EMPTY TOMB sport an eye-catching work pattern for his career debut, he lands in a spot ripe for a new face. SPEED APP is the one with clearly contending form. Maybe connections that claimed him for $20K, freshened, and pointed to this spot were looking for the cut-back all along, but his long races have been far better than the short ones. MUTASHABEH a mildly encouraging Tapeta Footings career debut at PID, and while he blistered some MNR dirt works, I’ll take those clockings with a grain of salt.

THIRD RACE

VINCENT WILLIAM is right at the top among Arlington 2yo winners this meet, and the runner-up in his debut returned with a nice score of his own over a talented horse on 7/13. I doubt this horse will have any trouble adapting to turf. You won’t like the win odds too well, however. Rivelli, the trainer of VW, and W Ward, trainer of ZANNO, know each other well and VW is by Ward’s stallion, Iqbaal. We know Ward is one of the leading 2yo trainers in N America - the leading one in terms of turf. This is obviously not one of his more advanced juveniles but he does see fit to test the N1X allowance after the $35K MCL win on move to grass last out. D W FITZ adds Lasix off a hard-fought debut win for $40K at DEL and on pedigree stands a decent chance of coming forward with move from dirt to turf.

FOURTH RACE

More talent than one might expect in a VA-certified race. 3yo BEALE STREET tackles elders but is a Feb foal and gets five pounds from the 4yos and up. Clearly a turf horse, so draw a line through the two dirt starts. Very encouraging GP run in first grass route and at some point connections appear to have just decided to wait and aim for this rich restricted spot. Looks like she’s hit all her morning marks. NOT MY MONEY a very solid second at LRL last out considering the length of her layoff before it. Third-place Avocado came back to edge $25K maiden-claimers Sunday at LRL. NMM worked back and I’d expect at least marginal improvement. Think GODDESS OF CASH might’ve been “given” that debut run in advance of this surfaceswitch, stretch-out, class drop.

FIFTH RACE

Ben Colebrook trains and owns JUST A LOOK, and since he’s listed as the auction buyer for the horse, who was bred and consigned by Claiborne, Colebrook’s client, well, I don’t know. Tangled web, and whatever. Have taken note of the turf-route affinity shown by many offspring of Lookin at Lucky, and the dam produced Fault, who, for a spell, was a high stakes-level turf-route performer in SoCal. This is not some big first-out barn but the works seem lively and I’ll guess the horse is well meant right out of the box. WITH HERSELF is an obvious

contender and seems likely to be bet like an even more obvious contender than she actually is. The MTH run last time came with trouble but not sure there’s a lot more there. Only one of SEDUCTIVE’s five Euro starts came on grass, which is odd, since that wasn’t a bad performance at all. Hard to gauge but the trainer does do well with layoff returnees.

SIXTH RACE

LNG TERM RELATIONS HP, with blinkers and maturity, has evolved into at least a mild ly decent horse. His best race, two back at CD, came fresh and at a one-turn mile, same circumstances as here, and he’s worked steadily up to this start. Outside draw seems suitable for the most effective trip he can get here. While the top pick has a precious N1X allowance condition left, there are tougher, seasoned older horses in this race under the claiming option - horses like SANAVI. Seventime winner looks generally well enough spotted but he definitely has slid from his peak in 2018 and the recent PRX might have been a blip up before further form erosion. Blinkers off for front-running SAINTLY SAMURAI, who was whipped by the top pick at CD. Would think he’s sufficiently talented but so far has needed things to go his way, and rail draw is not a good spot to make that happen.

SEVENTH RACE

EMBOLDEN didn’t just finish second in career debut and only start, but he showed good speed facing open MSW foes at MTH and was a length clear of third in a spread-out field. Now he gets a restricted VA-registered maiden and switches to turf, for which he has a strong pedigree. Was 5-2 first time, could be 2-5 this time. First-timestarting BLUE SKY PAINTER is from an immediate family of turf horses and has gotten up to 6f in timed drills, a strong sign he’s adequately fit for this start. Checkered work pattern for debuting FLANK SPEED but since he’s been moved about through those drills it’s not a deal-breaking concern. Horses by Midshipman racing on turf for the first time seem to be worth a general look.

EIGHTH RACE

ZONDA has plenty of pace and it was strange to see her drop so far off the early leaders while making turf debut last month at LRL. Connections evidently feel the same way since blinkers go on now. She finished full of run last time and seemed to enjoy her first trip over the lawn, and it’s not hard to imagine considerable further improvement now. Quite simply this looks like a two-horse race for win between Z and PRINCESSCHOPE, who was graded-stakes-placed in France (albeit on heavy ground) and ran a winning race at this level when last seen eight months ago in New Orleans. 1-17 win mark is getting substantial enough that there could be a psychological component at work. AGI’S CAIT’s form isn’t bad but I can’t see her taking much of a forward move with the switch to turf.

NINTH RACE

FACTION CAT looks rock solid at the class level, something that can’t be said of many in this race, and has raced for lower tags than this $40K in the recent past. His place-to-win ration generally hints at seconditis but it’s been a different story entirely in turf sprints. NOTTOWAY apparently needed his 2019 debut but has been in good form ever since, and while all his starts this year were on dirt, why can’t he handle grass? The pedigree points to it and his lone turf start, a good fourth at Euro-style Kentucky Downs, was equal to most of his best dirt performances. Could be a little overlooked in the betting. RAPID DAN was on the way to a LRL turf-sprint win at a lower class level than this last time when his rider misjudged the finish and eased up, causing his mount to do the same. Ran into the stakes-class starter horse American Sailor two back and if he can muster another peak can win this.

TENTH RACE

Seemingly little separating several horses at the top of contention in this $10K turf-route claimer. BLARP’s camp might have bitten off just a little more than their horse could chew for a $20K tag last time but have since backed off and given the horse some time, freshening for this drop back down to $10K, where he punched very hard earlier this year. HERE’S TO MIKE is an 8yo, so one wonders how much upside remains, though we’re obviously tossing the dirt try last out. His 2018 high-water mark was above the level he hit in his long-layoff comeback win two starts ago, Ness has him in for $2K more than that claiming tag, and he could take a little step forward here. DONE ACTING drops below the last claim price paid and has his tag halved from a near-miss for $20K last time. He’s not in bad form at all but these class moves aren’t ones capable connections make with a horse that is really thriving.