ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HOLIDAY DISGUISE

FIRST RACE

AMAZING AUDREY broke her maiden easily up here last summer when dropped in class and has since hit the exacta in all six starts for her new trainer, though she has only come out on top twice in those six races; getting class relief for this with enough speed to make her own trip and is the horse to beat. FROZEN HANNAH required a drop in for $12.5k to win back in March and she then caught a couple of paces to close into, before getting rained off and wiring a field in the slop last time for her new trainer; fits well here with her good race and she isn’t slow early. BAREEQA hasn’t been performing up to her best recently but has the back form to be tough in here as she gets some class relief; in tough off that short layoff last time over a course that had taken a lot of rain.

SECOND RACE

TALK YOU OUT OF IT has more experience than anyone in this field with four starts already behind her but she has run well in those race while facing some tough competition; may have finally found the right field here as she gets some extra distance to work with. MIRACULOUSBLESSING is a sister to five winners from this dam, who is a winning half to a pair of graded stakes-winning sprinters; trainer wins races and she has already saddled a debut winner at this meet, that one coming in a turf sprint with a 15:1 shot. BRITISH IDIOM is by a sire that wins with about 17% of his juvenile debut runners and she is a half to two winners from her stakes-winning dam; trainer wins with everything and is 13% over the past five years with 2yo firsters in dirt sprints, though with an ROI of just $0.85.

THIRD RACE

UNCONTESTED returned from the layoff this year with a pair of fast front-running wins, including a Grade 3 over this distance, then stepped up to face some tougher competition and was no factor; gets some class relief while landing in a spot where he appears to have the best speed and he may really like this track based on that most recent breeze. PLAINSMAN ended his promising 3yo campaign with three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Discovery, while appearing to relish added distance; starts back off the trainer change with forward to go but this may just be a starting off point as he sprints for the first time since breaking his maiden in January of 2018. NO DOZING won a similar race up here last summer with a 101 Beyer, then blew away the Bold Ruler a few starts later with a 107; looking to return to form making his third start off the layoff over his best distance.

FOURTH RACE

BUY LAND AND SEE is a half-brother to a pair of pretty good turf runners in Enthusiastic Gal and Sweet Bye and Bye, both of whom race for these connections and he is by an emerging sire in Cairo Prince, who wins with 14% of his first time turf runners; threat on debut for an excellent trainer. CROI MOR from the first crop of Honor Code (1 for 9 with first time starters so far and 2 for 15 overall, 0-2 with turf runners) and from a female family that is full of top turf performers, including multiple Group 1 winner and $4 million earner David Junior, multiple Grade 1 winner Paradise Creek, and Grade 1 winners Forbidden Apple and Wile Event; half to two turf winners is dangerous at first asking. RELENTLESS DANCER has been training forwardly in Kentucky and this half to five-time turf winner Rock N Sake is by an excellent turf sire in Midshipman; expecting a good effort on debut as he gets the leading rider.

FIFTH RACE

SWICK made a belated debut in June after breezing a striding-out 10.1 as a 2yo and he raced a bit greenly first time out while chasing in behind horses at a big price; goes turf to dirt and drops in class after facing a tough field on turf last time. SNEAKINESS also going turf to dirt, and he will race as a new gelding, as well, while looking like the clear horse to beat in this spot; finished a

couple lengths in front of the top one in that 6/7 race that was dominated on the lead by Asmussen firster Double Orb (90 Beyer). MAJESTIC WEST is half to six winners from this dam, who is a winning sister to multiple Grade 1-winner Tiznow and two other graded stakes winners; $200k yearling from top connections debuts for a tag with a solid series of works showing.

SIXTH RACE

DULL KNIFE was well-backed when winning first out in France and he has faced some tough competition since arriving stateside to start out 0-5; needs this class relief, just has to manage a trip from his outside draw. DAYS OF GLORY raced greenly in his two starts last year and returned to win right off the layoff as a 3yo going longer; did no running in his stateside debut after getting rained off and breaking slowly and drops right away; can do better getting back on turf. SOUTHERN BRIGADE endured a very tough trip in his final turf start as a 2yo and he returned to win his first start of the year on the drop with a new top figure; outside post is no bargain but he can improve again with the right trip.

SEVENTH RACE

HOLLYWOOD CAT turned back to sprint for her final start last year and ran a winning race at Belmont before ultimately settling for 3rd; came back off the layoff to easily handle weaker over this distance and she has run well over Saratoga turf in the past. ANDARTA made two starts up here as a 2yo and ran well both times while using her speed, then caught a bog in the Selima and faded to last; first start this year went the wrong way but she didn’t break well from her outside draw that day, and she was wrapped up in the stretch which exaggerated the margin of defeat. CIRQUE tried a mile of dirt when last seen and reportedly bled while being pulled up and vanned off; see no reason to hold that race against her and she has run a couple of races sprinting on turf that would give her a real chance here.

EIGHTH RACE

HOLIDAY DISGUISE is already a five-time NY-bred stakes winner, including both of her wins so far this year, that to go along with a Grade 3 win last year as a 4yo; easily handled a couple of these rival last time when keeping closer to the pace and taking over at will in the stretch and she may have a more competitive pace in front of her this time. BONITA BIANCA has a race in her that would give the top one a race and she showed that she can sprint when switched to this barn last year; has seen her form head the wrong way since taking the Empire Distaff last year but she has taken some time off and is eligible to come back running. JC’S SHOOTING STAR has only won twice on the main track in her career, most recently when running down an odds-on favorite in the mud on New Year’s Day, but she ran well when second-best behind the top one two starts back and she projects to have some pace in front on her is this spot.

NINTH RACE

MARQUET LEGACY managed only one start as a 2yo, where she was taken back early to wind up at the tail of that field, before racing on with some interest late; well-bred and well-connected filly is a threat to improve quickly as she starts back with lasix on. KERRY’S RING had no real excuse two back after cutting all the pace and holding a clear lead late, though she was run down by a pretty good horse in Niko’s Dream; was a bit more unlucky last time when caught inside and behind horses in the upper-stretch, allowing the winner to get the jump. TWO CENT TOOTSIE endured a tough trip in her career debut last summer up here and then got rained off the grass for the rest of the year; returned to turf off the layoff last time and contested the pace before weakening late and finishing close together at the end with both CRESCENT LADY and SANDRA’S MINE.