ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, LARIMAR

FIRST RACE

BLESSED ARION makes his turf debut for a stallion who is getting 16 percent winners from his firsttime turfers and 15 percent winners overall on the grass. The natural speed this one brings to the table should serve him well at the turf sprint trip, while he also is appealing for the experience edge he has on most of these. MONEY IN THE BANK did not get the break in a large field last out, but was beaten just three lengths for everything in a solid start to his career. He owns the field’s best lastrace turf Beyer. PALIMPSEST makes his turf debut for a stallion who is getting 11 percent winners from his first-time turfers and 14 percent winners overall on the grass. This one’s dam produced a turf winner in Gold Treasure and she also has a Grade 2-placed runner in Sweet Diane.

SECOND RACE

JAG should be sharp for the move back to a mile and a sixteenth off the mile start in which he set the pace to the late stages. He won his maiden at this distance two back at Laurel. BURN THE BOATS might get an ideal tracking trip off top choice. This one - who has never raced on Lasix - owns some of the field’s best turf Beyer Figures. On a pedigree point, he’s from a multiple Grade 3-winning mare who ran out $496K and who has produced a multiple stakes winner in Sly Storm, a half-sibling to this one who has banked $235K. CLOSER LOOK is back at a mile an d a sixteenth and his maiden win came at the trip in June. He’s from a Grade 3 winning mare who earned $363K and who has produced a multiple stakes winner in Grecian Maiden, a half-sibling to this one who ha earned $213K.

THIRD RACE

LARIMAR is appealing as a February foal who was favored in her career debut last out. She showed excellent speed in that five-eighths of a mile race and figures to again be prominent on the move to six panels. WINDY CITY KITTY also was favored in her debut, and she was claimed out of the race. She’s a half-sister to Record Year, who was stakesplaced at a sprint distance. BLOOD CURDLING is by a stallion who is getting 16 percent debut winners. This one’s dam was a stakes-placed winner of $74K and she has produced a Grade 2 winner in Paid Up Subscriber, a half-sibling to this one who has banked $862K. RESPONSIBILITY is from a Grade 3-winning mare who ran out $589K.

FOURTH RACE

The closer ELEMENTARY could sit a bit closer to the pace here on a couple of counts. For starters, he’s moving from a mile to the mile and a sixteenth distance of his maiden win. Also, from a class standpoint he’s moving from an optional $25K claiming spot to a conditioned claimer. LOVE YOUR BUTTONS has been knocking on the door on a variety of surfaces in recent times and his consistent nature makes him appealing. SEATTLE RIC can be closer to the pace than top two and owns the field’s co-highest last-race Beyer Figure in a distinction he shares with STORMY FORECAST.

FIFTH RACE

SMART TWO A T exits a key race. The runner-up came back in his next start to account for an N1X at Laurel and the ninth-place finisher, Beltway Bob, a $16K claiming race, also at Lrl, with a Beyer of 75. POSHSKY and IN EQUALITY exit the same key race. The fifth-place finisher, Senor Louise, came back in his next start to account for an $8K claimer at Pen, with a Beyer of 72, and the ninthplace finisher, Salutation, a $5K claimer at Del Park, with a Beyer of 64. IN EQUALITY has class appeal as a Grade 3-placed runner. He’s out of a Grade 2 winning mare who earned $977K and who produced Woodbine Oaks winner Inish Roan, a daughter of Elusive Quality who earned $598K. The race CAMALUS was second by a head in last out has produced three next-out winners.

SIXTH RACE

SWORN SILENCE was second last out in a race that has become a key one. The winner came back

in her next start to account for a $40K optional claimer at Ellis with a Beyer of 77 and the sixthplace finisher, Broadway Cat, an N1X at Indiana, with a Beyer of 66. This one did not have smooth sailing last out and now moves back to the six furlong trip of her most recent win. NEVA’S GAL looks like the one to beat. She’s won her last two starts by a combined margin of more than 25 lengths and the Beyer Figure of 87 she earned last time is the best last-race number in his field. For this trip, she is shortening up some in distance.

TRACE makes a couple of notable moves. She’s back on dirt and back at six furlongs, the “conditions” of her maiden win.

SEVENTH RACE

OUR FLIRTATION has one her best work to date on turf and for this trip will be first Lasix. GRACELY owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. She cuts back to one turn here and for barn that wins at an above average rate with its route to sprint prospects, according to statistics from Daily Racing Form. On a pedigree point, this one is a half-sister to Irish Jasper, a Grade 2 winner of $580K. ZIP DRIVE ran a big race in her debut last out, when she set the pace to the later stages of a maiden allowance at a mile. The runner-up from the race returned in her next start to account for a maiden special weight at Tam with a Beyer of 72, and the third-place finisher, a maiden allowance at Kee, with a Beyer of 61. ZIP DRIVE is from a stakes-winning mare who ran out $187K. DONT LOSE THAT NUMBER is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Safe Trip ($424K). I’LL TAKE THAT is out of a Grade 1-winning mare who banked $827K and who has produced a stakes winner in Ready to Confess ($377K).

EIGHTH RACE

INDIAN PAINT has class appeal as one who has been facing steeper. For this trip, she will add blinkers. CHECKBOUNCIN BILLY is a consistent sort and she owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure. ORDINARY LOVE is back at the mile trip and she’s proven to be a true miler as her last four wins on form have come at the distance.

NINTH RACE

CHARLIE MOPS ran a big race off the bench two back, winning in his first start of the season. He’s appealing for her consistent nature and for the fact that he was third against higher-priced foes last out - a race in which he was favored. TALE

OF THE NILE is moving back to the level of his last win after a credible race against steeper. WHISTLE

ME HOME draws an improved post over his last several starts.