ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SEDAMAR

FIRST RACE

Runner-up by a nose last out in an $8k claiming sprint, EMPRESS OF LOV stretches to a mile at the same level; she is the only entrant in undeniable top form. She has speed for a front-running/pacepressing trip, and should be tough to beat at low odds. LOVE OF ART drops two levels off a spinaround-the-track fourth against slightly better. She will be grinding late, and could get there if the top choice does not stay. TOPAZ TIME completely misfired last time, without a visible alibi. Claimed off the next-to-last effort, she stretches out to the two-turn distance of her most recent wins. If she is forgiven for her last-out ninth-place debacle, she is a key player this level/distance.

SECOND RACE

Four of the six in this claiming turf route exit the race that CALLE KINGPIN led wire to wire. The difference this time is a changed pace scenario because the speedster on the rail will prevent ‘KINGPIN from making the lead. Perhaps it will not matter; he has won from a pressing trip. Assuming he can sit second behind the speed, he will get first run and perhaps hold off the late-runners again. Last time out, he smoked the final three furlongs in 34.61 seconds. Tough to beat a horse that has both tactical speed and a finishing kick. EROTIC drops to claiming after being in tough last out in a N1X. He is reunited with red-hot rider Flavien Prat, who guided him to both career wins. EROTIC will rally late, while SNAZZY DRESSER is the aforementioned front-runner breaking from the inside. He will take them as far as he can, and he has won at this mile and one-eighth trip.

THIRD RACE

SECRET COURIER figures to be loose on the lead in this starter-allowance mile. He finished second last out in a similar dirt route. Visually, it was not a great effort; he appeared to be going up and down in the stretch. Nonetheless, as likely lone speed, he gets the call to take them all the way. If it a mile is too far, then debut winner UNBROKEN STAR could be along in time. He broke slowly in his debut but rallied from last to win a maiden

50 mile. It was not a particularly strong field he beat, but he certainly has room to improve in just the second start of his career. Mike Puype claimed him. TIDAL EFFECT has not raced since November, and this stable typically races them into shape rather than fire first start back. On the other hand, his maiden-40 win and starter allowance runnerup on this track last summer are the best dirt races by any in this field.

FOURTH RACE

This turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares is strange, because four leading contenders are on the also-eligible list. The complexion of the race will change if any draw in. Meanwhile, rail-drawn ROAD RAGER is the speed of the speed. She “won” a maiden dirt race two back at 5.5 furlongs only to be disqualified; last out she dueled though a blazing pace at 6.5 furlongs and faded. The speedster benefits by this shorter 5f distance, and as a daughter of Quality Road, turf should be okay. Regardless of what happens with the AE’s, ROAD RAGER is the one they have to catch. MISS STORMY D would give the top choice all she can handle up front, if she draws in. MISS STORMY D ran super in her comeback, dueling on a strong pace and only tiring late to miss by a length. That was her first start of the year, she adds Lasix for her second start. If the top pair both run, the race could set up nicely for also-eligible CELLAR DOOR or MISCHIFFIE. Both rallied from the back of the field to finish second over this course last out. First-time starter TINNIE is a full sister to Passionate Reward, who won his career debut in a turf sprint for Richard Mandella and Flavien Prat. Same connections for TINNIE.

FIFTH RACE

A pair of fillies exiting a maiden race at Ellis Park are the top contenders in this $62.5k maidenclaiming sprint. Although she finished seventh, LEUCOTHEA gets the call over BIDDY DUKE, who finished third. LEUCOTHEA took up slightly into the turn in her debut, was shuffled back slightly, then squeezed through traffic in the lane before flattening out. The “trouble” did not prevent her from winning, but it did compromise her performance. Now she adds blinkers, worked fast at San Luis Rey Downs since shipping to California, and adds Lasix. With a race under her belt, expect a major move forward. She will have to catch likely pacesetter BIDDY DUKE, who set the pace her last three starts before tiring. The additional halffurlong of this 5.5f race poses a challenge, but she should make the lead. SMALL SURPRISE returns from a two and a half-month layoff for a stable that won three maiden races for 2yos already this meet. Debut runner-up MUSICALLY regressed second time out in her first try over this track. She drops in class, takes off blinkers and will be close to the pace.

SIXTH RACE

After finishing in the money all four starts at this Cal-bred N1X condition, SEDAMAR is ready to break through as most probable winner on the card. She missed by only a neck last out under similar circumstances, and though she benefitted from a perfect trip saving ground, she could get the same trip again. She has enough tactical speed to keep the leaders in her sights, and she can finish (23.08-second final quarter last out). Her main rival is the veteran mare she finished a neck in front of last out. That is 6yo SHE HAS THE RITE STUFF, who also benefitted from a groundsaving trip in the same race, angled out three-wide into the lane, had every chance, but hung. She is now 6, and it has been more than two years since her most recent win. SMILING ANNIE is a “new face” to this level because it is her first route. She is quick enough to make the lead if she wants; her dam Bootleg Annie was a route stakes winner and produced multiple route stakes winner Blackjackcat. Although SMILING ANNIE is by sprint sire Smiling Tiger, she gets stamina on the bottom of her pedigree. SUPER BUNNY adds speed, but the final quarter-mile of her maiden win last out was 25.05 seconds.

SEVENTH RACE

Runner-up first time out, with solid workouts since, LIBERALISM is the logical choice in this sprint for Cal-bred maiden 2yo fillies. Trainer Brian Koriner won with four of his last five second-start maiden favorites. NAVY QUEEN finished an evenpaced third in her career debut, and galloped out with run past the wire. She is a legitimate threat from off the pace. I WANT ONE flashed speed and finished second in her debut in a state-bred maiden-50. The truth is, the top choice should be tough to beat.