Avie’s Flatter gets turf in Breeders’

“It’s a busy weekend in the racing world” pretty much goes without saying when Saratoga and Del Mar are in session. Indeed, with an iconic pair of Grade 1 events, the Alabama and Pacific Classic, on tap at those respective tracks, the stage is set for another great Saturday for racing fans to enjoy.

Furthering the horseplaying experience are the other tracks pitching in, such as Mountaineer a couple of weeks ago and Arlington last week. This week, it’s Woodbine with its third jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Breeders’ Stakes.

Breeders’ Stakes

The unofficial MVP of the 2019 Canadian Crown will surely be Avie’s Flatter if he can come through as the likely favorite in the Breeders’ Stakes. Josie Carroll has done a terrific job in managing the versatile colt, who managed to finish second in each of the first two legs of the series despite being at something of a disadvantage when racing over Tapeta and dirt.

After acquitting himself well versus some of the best 3-year-old turf horses in North America in his first two starts of the year, Avie’s Flatter now gets a race in his wheelhouse when returning to the spacious Woodbine turf. The distance shouldn’t matter – he’s clearly the most proven force over grass, and you might say he’s capable of outrunning his eight rivals anywhere from five furlongs to two miles, as long as the race is on turf.

Because he won’t be much of a price, the quest should be to end the verticals with something more daring. Maybe the best angle is to fade the Prince of Wales winner Tone Broke, who could come the second choice despite never having raced over turf. A more preferred option for the exactors and triactors is Encierro, who may have had a little “bounce” to his step when fourth as the favorite in the Toronto Cup following an eye-catching maiden win in his turf debut.

Alabama Stakes

It’s usually difficult to extrapolate how the pace will unfold in a 1 1/4-mile race such as the Alabama, given how rare the opportunities are for horses to prove themselves at such a distance. The guess here is that Joel Rosario might try to walk the dog with Ulele, but Lady Apple, Street Band, and maybe even Dunbar Road all have the turn of foot to keep her honest out front.

A scenario to rachet up the adrenaline a few notches could result in some tired fillies by the time they hit the quarter pole. That’s when Point of Return figures to be hitting her best stride following careful rating from Javier Castellano.

With her pedigree (by Curlin) and recency, along with an off-pace running style and the Beyer Speed Figures to compare favorably with any of her eight rivals, Point of Honor could be tough to deny in the final quarter-mile. Maybe the main threat to stick with her down the lane is Dunbar Road, which would be somewhat ironic – these two fillies were the lone exclusions from the Kentucky Oaks field, and now they’re on the threshold of proving themselves among the very best in their class.

Pacific Classic

The Pacific Classic has been the domain of quite a few superstars over the years, but many fans actually prefer the absence of a standout and the kind of wide-open look that this 29th running represents. There are a half-dozen or so horses in this field of 10 who wouldn’t qualify as a surprise with a victory, which says a lot for just how competitive this is.

A few horses with close ties to Kentucky racing are among the most likely winners, including the last two winners of the Stephen Foster, Pavel (2018) and Seeking the Soul (2019). Both have proven their quality in other situations, and both have been particularly effective at longer distances.

But the choice here is Quip, whose tractability and inside post could give him the edge over those two stretch runners. There are other horses who could make the lead – including For the Top, Higher Power, or Draft Pick – but Quip will be lurking in the shadows and saving ground for as long as Florent Geroux can keep him in a smooth rhythm. Second by a neck to Seeking the Soul in the Foster after fighting off several challenges, he’s liable to turn the tables by getting first run at this longer distance.