ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, TONE BROKE

FIRST RACE

CAUSE FOR ALARM faded to fourth after participating in a speed duel the last time he tried the turf going 1 1/4 miles vs. $15K maidens in his penultimate race. MADSAM is dropping sharply from $25K to where he could crack the top three for the first time. KYSLIOS’S JUSTICE, who usually lands on the edges, is a must-use underneath in the exotics.

SECOND RACE

WHERE’S THE GOLD rallied wide from sixth to end up second in his improved second race off the bench July 24. This jockey/trainer combo won a co-feature at Fort Erie with Sniper on Tuesday. BIG BLIND is turning back to three-quarters off a ground-saving third. Note that Kimura was aboard for his last score. GUNNER BEN is eligible to fire one of his better shots while going from turf to Tapeta.

THIRD RACE

MY BORROWED ANGEL lost for the first time last out, when she was eligible to bounce off her good comeback victory. The daughter of Canada’s premier turf sire Silent Name can rebound in her grass debut here with Kimura taking over from Da Silva, who has landed on Canadian Magic. FOXXY BELLE wired $25K NW3 opposition when changing surfaces to the grass first-time off the McKnight claim in her latest. MOKSGMOL raced wide throughout while closing from off hot fractions for second in a shorter sprint three weeks ago.

FOURTH RACE

READY AND PERFECT has worked nicely since a deceptively-good third June 29, during which she prevailed in a three-way pace battle before tiring. Two horses have exited that maiden special to score, and she could be next here in her inner track bow. MARITIME BREEZE was jostled between rivals in the stretch before dropping a neck decision when traveling a mile on the inner July 20. STRANDED faded to third behind the latter after setting most of the pace when debuting in that same maiden special.

FIFTH RACE

RED BO rallied down the center of the course from ninth to just miss last time in a one-mile optional starter. He was previously third behind two classy rivals at this $40K level. WHERE’S THE WIDGET crushed $20K opposition in front-running fashion most recently on the Tapeta, his preferred surface. The classy veteran has other speed to contend with in this $40K turf route, if he employs an aggressive approach. LAPOCHKA could join the fray in his second start off the shelf.

SIXTH RACE

KA GEE GEE parlayed a perfect stalking trip into a daylight victory vs. males in a five-furlong maiden special on the inner turf three weeks ago. She could double up in this N1X dash for distaffers on the same layout. PATTON’S GIRL ran evenly along the inside to just miss third over a course that aided speed in the G2 Royal North. Not sure where that big effort came from, but anything close to a repeat would put her in the frame. REAL COAL could make most of the running after breaking from the rail in lane 1, the least speed-friendly lane on the inner.

SEVENTH RACE

FAST SCENE has breezed on the turf at Saratoga since taking the My Dear Stakes on the Tapeta convincingly here July 6. She drew outside the other speed in this 6 1/2-furlong turf stakes in lane 1, and could continue her winning ways under Hernandez. SARATOGA VISION is back in action on short rest off a closing second in a seven-furlong maiden special on the lawn. She could collar all the fading speed if she brings her “A” game. FAIR MAIDEN earned a fat 90 Beyer in her gate-to-wire maiden romp second-time out over Arlington’s Polytrack. The daughter of 14% turf sire Street Boss has some turf breeding on the dam’s side.

EIGHTH RACE

WHO’S GOT IT won his belated season opener in an N1X route after pressing the pace. A $32K claim last September, he’s spotted aggressively in this $25K seller with Singh back in the saddle. GUITAR GEORGE was hard-ridden from fifth for second in a shorter route at this price a month ago. FORESTER’S DESTINY was a flat fourth in his second start back, but this third race of his form cycle could be a better one.

NINTH RACE

GOLD LACE came from second to win a turf sprint at this class while beating several of these off a seven-month layoff June 29. Her interim work pattern is sketchy, but the win machine drew well on the outside here on the Tapeta, over which she has a solid record. MAGIC SPELL placed in each of her last two outings on the grass, behind Gold Lace at this level and behind the unstoppable Summer Sunday in the G2 Royal North. KILLAG KATIE was blocked along the inside in mid-stretch before coming up neck short when favored in a slow-paced event three weeks ago.

TENTH RACE

TONE BROKE showed off his dirt ability when taking the Prince of Wales Stakes by daylight, after a commendable third in the Queen’s Plate on the Tapeta. He’s experimenting on another new surface in this 12-furlong turf marathon, and is bred for the task at hand. His new pilot, the hot leading rider Hernandez, who won back-to-back runnings of the Breeders’ with Camp Creek and Channel Maker in 2016-17. RISING STAR manhandled maidens over nine furlongs in his first grass assignment July 27. The late bloomer by Ghostzapper is a half-brother to Seeking Albert, who was fourth in the ‘17 Breeders for these connections. HE’S A MACHO MAN worked well on the main turf last Sunday, and make some noise in his first turf start. He hails from the family of G1 grass winners Explosive Red and Chief Bearhart. AVIE’S FLATTER is a two-time stakes winner on the grass. ENCIERRO disappointed on very hot day in the Toronto Cup. His maiden triumph was visually impressive.

ELEVENTH RACE

STARSHIP JUBILEE, a two-time Canadian champion female turf runner, is hard to go past in this open allowance on the inner course. She’s prepping for the G2 Canadian, which she won last year. LUNAR GARDEN could take this field a long way on the front end. Stretch-runner MISS MO MENTUM, a Tapeta specialist, has had some success on turf in the past.

TWELFTH RACE

OUR UNCLE DREW ran against a speed bias on the main turf last time when fourth going a mile. He was previously a clear second traveling seven furlongs in another $25K event. CERRADO took the long way home while rallying from off fast splits for third in his improved third race off the bench. LUCKY STREET is dropping from OS/$40K company following a break, during which he worked exclusively on the dirt training track.