ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, GRAN DIAMOND

FIRST RACE

A 12-race Saturday card gets started at 12:45 ET and surely with Gulf officials hoping the rain in the forecast (again, ugghh) will be insufficient to force the 5 scheduled turf races to move to the main track. The opener is one of those grass races with a nice-sized field; thinking JEEKER JOE may have the edge here when resurfacing as a first-time gelding and favorably drawn toward the hedge while nearly cut in half for this $20k; part of a wellmatched lineup of maidens to get things under way. WILL REMEMBER starts all over again when realistically spotted by Ralph; was no factor when facing good Saturday maidens at the championship meet, but this obviously represents a more reasonable spot. OVERWATCH adds blinkers and gets cut in half by Saffie, who continues to operate in an aggressive (and mostly successful) manner.

SECOND RACE

In his 4 starts for the Imaginary folks, NORTHERN won twice at this same open-$6,250 level, earning 79 Beyers in the process; obviously John & Co. wanted him back, and so here he is under the purple-and-lime via the re-claim; Dobles probably knows his hole card, and that’s key. PHISH FAN, 1st or 2nd in 23 of 51, has rarely (if ever) been in for such a low tag; 9yo knows how the game is played. SCAM probably is more effective at a slightly longer distance than these 5.5 furlongs, but it’s worth knowing he was even-money in that 2-back try for this same bottom-rung price.

THIRD RACE

Those 2 poor turf efforts for BIBLIOTECARIO came in another lifetime, or at least prior to coming into the Slivka fold; grass-bred son of Hard Spun has improved noticeably in her care, and obviously she’s been wanting to get him back on the grass; note the trainer’s 2-for-7 record going dirt-toturf; worth a try in an open heat. SOLAR WARMING takes a welcome drop in price for Imaginary and Dobles; string of 3 straight 5ths apt to be improved upon. LUCKY FAST, a 3yo with 20 starts and 3 wins, must overcome the outside post and is liable to do so.

FOURTH RACE

Slim pickin’s in this bottom-level maiden-claimer could have you, too, circling back to LIVE FOR THE DAY despite his rather discouraging form; turning back from the mile seems worth trying, as this Budhoo ‘house horse’ was semi-competitive in a few tries at this shorter distance; wants to see things fall apart up top as Vasquez stays busy while saving ground. RESTART is another one on a distance cut-back; latest off-the-turfer was decent enough to convince Oscar to try him on dirt again. CADES COVE LOOP, a new Ralph project, starts all over. CARAMEL is a Curlin firster who cost a mere $7k; you already know enough.

FIFTH RACE

Looks like HIGH ROLLING DUDE stays eligible for this condition by the oft-used 3yo exemption, and that’s good news for his connections, given this Schickedanz color-bearer just won for this same $6,250 tag as one of the faves; little reason not to like him right back on this slight stretchout to 8 furlongs. GRISACEO is an obvious unknown quantity when going turf-to-dirt on a class plunge after undergoing ‘the unkindest cut’ for a winning barn; likely to attract considerable tote action with those variables in play. W W HANDSOME, a 2-back maiden romper, would seem to require early rating to do his best.

SIXTH RACE

Looooooch the central figure in this open 1x alw. sprint for fillies and mares as the owner of LIZA STAR, who steps forth in search of a fourth straight triumph; stalking rail trip with the perennially underrated Vasquez aboard is on order. Right alongside, PAULA ANDREA can grab a share as the earlier goers tire late; she, too, would benefit from the right kind of trip. GABRIELLEELIZABETH and the one-time Loooch property, BEST TREBOL, have potential at this level but might well find circumstances stacked against them today.

SEVENTH RACE

Kindly overlook the slop debacle two weekends ago and suddenly INTRICATELY is a major threat in this bottom-level maiden-claimer for turfsprinting fillies; something similar to the two-back runner-up try vs. this same kind in her first grass try for Lichoa might be enough with these. QUEEN SOLDAT makes a logical cutback to 5 panels after those speed-shows going 2 turns; outer post a plus, as is her presumed fitness. DANCINGWITHJIMMIEB, mildly improved in her last 2, deserves a close look with this switch to the grass.

EIGHTH RACE

Kantharos and O’Connell in the corner of first-timer ALLEGEDLY PERFECT, and that’s a convincing angle unto itself; steady Calder work slate strongly suggests this dude could come out running; tote provides perhaps the most valuable clues. JETTIN OUT comes the obvious one to beat after three straight runner-up finishes, including the last 2 despite rough starts; don’t expect much of a price, though, for I’ll Ride Rivelli. PARLAY PETE comes favorably drawn in the open-air outside box when cutting back slightly from a promising debut 3 Saturdays ago.

NINTH RACE

Amid familiar foes, DISCREET HEAT looks to reprise his first-off-claim effort in June, when he won in a similar spot; well drawn toward the hedge here, he’ll need racing luck and his best foot forward to prevail in what clearly shapes up as a very contentious open-$10k turf route. COULD BE seems a timely claim for D’Angelo, who’s had a conspicuously fast start to his career; this 5yo gelding’s name shows up in the running lines of quite a few of his opponents today. GOOD OLD BOY has come to hand in recent starts for Maker and his local asst., Nolan Ramsey, although this exit from the ‘beaten’ ranks amounts to a substantial class hike.

TENTH RACE

The badly-needed July 21 comeback race for ANIMAL TRICK provides the foundation for a vastly improved effort today, as he was favored in that open-$12.5k race and now comes aggressively spotted by Navarro when well drawn in the outer box; his ‘18 efforts clearly demonstrate his ability to match up with this brand; meriting benefit of the doubt. SPA JAZZ comes shrewdly spotted for this $6,250 tag after just whipping ‘beaten’ $10k types at odds-on; Sanchez barn quietly enjoying a productive year. NOMINAL DOLLARS, despite not actually winning much, has been a highly valued commodity this year, having been claimed from 4 of his last 6.

ELEVENTH RACE

Load-and-go scenario liable to give GRAN DIAMOND the early edge she can put to full advantage as Jaramillo weighs his options on or near the front; call her the day’s best as she continues to show steady improvement for Barboza. On the opposite end of the gate, BEATING THE ODDS comes aggressively spotted for this $10k tag after throttling $20k maidens last month for Frank and Saffie; just trying to salvage a little something from their full-retail April purchase. VICTORIA’S SMILE is unbeaten on grass and with Torres; obviously viable here.

TWELFTH RACE

The money really showed for SWEET BELEN when she came unveiled 5 Saturdays ago, and she nearly upheld her backers’ faith when a close-up 2nd; a little more follow-thru would do here with that needed debut behind her. Same kind of script for her next-gate neighbor, the rail-drawn MIZ CHAPLIN, who gets the Swedish jock Olsson when looking to improve over her promising 7/7 bow; sure to draw big play again for high-percent connections. Hopefully RAIN is no omen for the day’s weather, but merely a possibility to send her backers home with sunny smiles.