ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, RIVERS RISING

FIRST RACE

SUNDEREYA is feeling great and can win on any surface (wet, turf, or dirt). Toss that off the turf allowance race two back and this filly looks even better. This barn is just fine on the lawn and this horse has already won on this green. STAR

PERFORMER is feeling great right now. This is the perfect time to try the green and this filly is a multiple grass winner with incredible turf breeding. Tactical speed and this inside post should combine for a good to great trip. SHEA’S LIL SHUG keeps Dominguez even though he rode our top pick last out. The mare has hit the exacta in over half of her starts on this sod. We love how much she wins. She even has a recent work.

SECOND RACE

GOLDIE FASTLANE draws the attack post and could love an elongated sprint. She adds 1 1/2 furlongs and that should sharpen her tactical speed. Form cycle hints at better. Her last race came back key when 2 of 3 returned to win (only available Beyer is 41). SUSPICIOUS LADY just figures. She is better of late and just ran a Beyer top. FED UP has lost two in a row as the chalk and is now buried on the rail going 6 1/2 furlongs. The leading rider takes the call for Asmussen so there is that.

THIRD RACE

ROGER BROWN has the best last race Beyer and by a lot. He also catches a race weak for the level. We want to find someone to beat this 1/2 favorite but alas we can’t. The best thing we can say is that he can bounce off recent 89 Beyer and still win this. THEBOYZDELIGHT never got a breather in his most recent but still ran well on this sod. He should be content to stalk the big chalk in here. OVER PRICED just ran tons better and did so at 39-1. Any chance he is a horse for course before anyone knows it? What we don’t like is this rail start as he could have two or three others pressing him around the track.

FOURTH RACE

RAMBLINGRUDYRAGS was stuck on the rail in his most recent where he broke 9th of 10 yet he still rallied some to beat over half the field home. He goes 6 1/2 again but this time draws much better. Current form is solid and he even has a recent work. Dominguez gets a leg up and he is battling tooth and nail with Lozada for the riding title. MY RAINEY DAY has some speed and likes this distance. There just isn’t much pace in this race. Catch him to cash? EL MOZO ran evenly in his most recent and it did come at today’s distance. We think this gelding might get first run on the speed. A decent break is the key and that can be tricky from this post.

FIFTH RACE

KING ZIPPY figures a great trip as there is a lot of pace in here. He was simply unlucky in his most recent. He is a new turf horse. This barn is quite good on the grass. BINDER draws the rail and has some tactical speed. If he were to gun then the other speeds could let him go as that sometimes happens in races with multiple speed horses. OR he could stalk a decent trip if Tejera can get him to relax early. At double digits we are willing to take the risk. SENATOR CON is just better on the grass. Can he put good races together? This barn is 17% with their repeating winners. MALASONG is by a 9% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. All 7 sibs failed to hit the board on the sod.

SIXTH RACE

STRYKER MAN finds a better spot today as he cuts back a full furlong. He should stalk the speeds and have something left for his stretch run. Second time with Castillo up can only help. AARON’S BLUFF goes second time with new barn and drops in class. The blinkers go ON and that is a 18% move for this barn. They return this gelding between 31-60 days and that is a 26% move for team Faucheux. Here comes a stalking trip from the 2 hole. WHATELSE IGOT TODO is speed. Too bad there is zip inside and outside. Local tab is fine and Foster calls the shots.

SEVENTH RACE

RIVERS RISING tried a turf route in his debut and nothing is tougher. Plus, he got a poor trip. His second start came in the slop so out the window it goes but he didn’t race after as if something went amiss. His return try was better and it came going short on this sod. He should be all set for a career best in this spot. His turf breeding is simply great as his 363 turf Tomlinson can attest too. FATHER BRYAN has some speed and will be winging it on the front end from his rail draw. Distance breeding is solid and he certainly likes this sod. HAPPY GUY did chase a repeating winner in his debut and that was not an easy spot. He did beat half the field home in his return try. A return to the turf can only help. Jockey Kevin Smith is 20% when riding for this barn locally. FALCON PRINCE is by a 9% debut sire and a 11% debut turf sire. His dam went 8-0-0-0 (3 grass starts). Four of five sibs won but only one beat winners. Lone turf sib failed to win on the green. RELUCTANT WARRIOR is by a 0 for 18 debut turf sire. His dam went 5-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal. DICKINSON’S IMAGE is by a 9% debut sire and a 4% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 and never tried the grass. This is her first foal to race.