ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SMOOTH WITH A KICK

FIRST RACE

CHIEF JUSTICE put in a good late run for 4th in his stateside debut last time, where he finished just behind subsequent Swithwick winner Winston C; should have him set up well for this. SPORTSWEAR two for two over jumps for Sheppard and would likely have been favored in the Kiser last month before being scratched; distance should be no issue. ARCH MY BOY made a bold run to the lead in the Kiser last time, only to be closed down late by Redicean; was impressive in his final two starts in Europe before arriving and did run well last time but this distance may be an issue.

SECOND RACE

SMOOTH WITH A KICK appeared to be prepping over seven first time out while breaking slowly and racing greenly and she has improved since being stretched out in distance; easily broke her maiden over course and distance last time and, while this will be tougher, she appears to still have plenty of room to move forward. SOUTH OF THE SHORE finished second behind subsequent stakes winners in each of her first three starts and then missed over a year of racing; returned with an easy a win while appearing to just be getting started over that mile distance, and she was never going to be subsequent Mother Goose and Alabama winner Dunbar Road last time; keeps coming forward and the distance should pose no problem. BELLERA earned a 75 Beyer when second-best on debut and she easily handled maidens when stretched out around two turns at Monmouth last time; can improve but has a lot to make up on the top two.

THIRD RACE

FLORIDA FLASH is by a sire who is off to a hot start with his 2yos and he is a half to a stakes-winning dirt sprinter from the family of multiple Grade 1 winner Island Fashion; breezing right along and am expecting speed as he breaks from the inside under Saez. REJECTED AGAIN debuted at the end of June is a three-horse field and chased favored Analyze Your Risk early before driving up to take him on, and to get a head in front, before settling for second-best; blinkers go on for the second start and he also gets a major rider change. BYCHANCE goes for a low-percentage trainer but has plenty of pedigree on his side as the first foal from Perchance, who won the first two starts of her career and is a sister to three graded stakes winners; quick breeze over the main track here last week suggests he has some speed.

FOURTH RACE

PILLAR MOUNTAIN ran well the first time he was stretched out up here last summer to nearly overcome a tough trip then missed 270 days and returned with a perfect late-running prep going shorter; good effort to prevail two back when forced to rally on the rail from behind a fast pace and he dominated allowance rivals last time under strong handling; steps up. RED KNIGHT tried a tougher spot last time and finished last but he is better than that and this distance is no problem for him based on pair of recent runs over two miles; can be a bit difficult to ride but he is tough in here if he can settle early and run his best race. HIGHLAND SKY has won just two of his last 17 starts since finishing a very good second in the Belmont Derby as a 3yo, with both of those wins coming in allowance company; has held his own in the graded stakes ranks along the way and will appreciate this class relief.

FIFTH RACE

JEWEL OF ARABIA made her career debut in the Stillwater, where she chased a pair of nice fillies from the rail before finishing a gaining 3rd in a solid first-out effort; figures tough with that experience behind her as she steps back to face maidens with

lasix on. NAKED AVENGER by a sire that wins with about 10% of his juvenile first-time starters and is from a dam who was a stakes-winning sprinter as a 2yo before going on to win five times overall and earn $288k; trainer is underrated and is capable of winning first out at a price. BARBARA’S

BANK by a speedy sire in Bank Heist and she is the first foal from this mare, who won 13 times in her career, all of them in dirt sprints; ships in off a bullet breeze from the gate at Monmouth. SOPHIE RULES doesn’t have much pedigree behind her but she threw in an improved work prior to shipping up from Belmont and goes for a trainer who already has six 2yo winners at the meet.

SIXTH RACE

SAINT MARCO debuted sprinting three weeks ago and rallied through the stretch, after coming around wide, to finish a gaining 5th; bred to stretch out being by Tonalist (who has some turf in his pedigree) and a half to four-time turf winner Firsthand Report, who was a two-time stakes winner routing on grass. FLUTE MAKER made his debut sprinting on dirt and rallied mildly through the stretch after getting outrun early; picks up Ortiz for an excellent second-out trainer and he has pedigree to make this switch being from a dam who broke her maiden in her second start, also when stretched out on turf, and is a sister to Grade 2 turf winner Filimbi. SMITE chased in a clean trip and raced on gamely in the stretch to get 4th ahead of SAINT MARCO in his career debut; stretches out from a good inside post and he may have enough speed to make the early lead.

SEVENTH RACE

FOOLISH GHOST ran in a much tougher spot up here early in the meet and gave way in the stretch after contesting the pace; gets needed class relief back into the claiming ranks with dangerous early speed. AUTOSTRADE dropped in class and was claimed out of a turf route on opening day; first start for new connections comes back on the main track, where he has won twice and has earned a pair of 78 Beyers over this distance in races that are separated by a long layoff; drop in for $20k in first start for new connections not a great sign but he is better on dirt and is tough in here with anything close to his good race. AIR ON FIRE has been an underachiever throughout his career and he posted a couple of fo blowout wins over wet tracks for Servis, surrounded by several shortpriced losses; off the claim for Rice with plenty of early speed.

EIGHTH RACE

FACTORING’s recent form isn’t her best but she has made just one turf start so far this year, that off the bench vs. a much better field, and she has proven to be an effective turf sprinter in her career; drops in for the price for her third start off the layoff and can contend with these horses with any kind of a trip. GOLCONDA the horse to beat based as she drops in class making her second start for Servis, but that wasn’t a particularly compelling performance off the trainer change last time; likely too good at this level but she is going to be a short price without a real figure edge, and it’s not like she’s a speed that can just blast off and be hard to catch. CHINA RIDER has faced better since being re-claimed by Cannizzo but she hasn’t yet shown up with her best race in the first three starts out of this barn; class drop can help turn things around, though she may be a bit better in the longer turf sprints she gets to run in downstate.

NINTH RACE

SAMAY has won five straight dirt sprints at Finger Lakes and has improved in his three starts this year to earn the top figures of his career; ran well in the lone Saratoga start to date to finish a game 2nd while off the layoff and he has the tactical speed to get a trip from his outside post in this open-looking race. THORNY TALE hasn’t won a race since taking his career debut in a race that was rained off the grass but he has tried some very tough spots along the way and gave the talented Blind Willie McTell a race a couple of times along the way; turf to dirt for Weaver after getting a piece in a Stallion Series race last time, though the rail draw isn’t ideal. KERRY BOY was no factor in that pace-dominated race last time but he ran quite well when turned back up here two starts back when chasing and being forced around wide to the stretch; will be a price once again in a race that is open to several different outcomes.

TENTH RACE

ITSAKEYPER showed some potential on turf as a 2yo and won her first turf start this year while grimly holding on over a distance that may be a bit far for her; has rated and failed to make a late impact since while facing better and is getting the right class drop for this. MATZO BELLA failed to fire as the favorite in the slop when rained off last time but she finished a very good 2nd prior to that on turf; logical back in vs. claiming company sprinting on grass. SHANGHAI BONNIE went a fast pace on the lead and tired readily over course and distance last time; goes off the claim vs. a similar field and she has better races than that last one in her past. AVOCADO TOAST ran by SHANGHAI BONNIE to take over the lead last time and then couldn’t hold closing favorite Tiple at the end; has now settled for second-best in two straight while running well enough to win and is a threat once again for her new connections.