Improbable begins comeback

DEL MAR, Calif. – With the parity in the 3-year-old division this year, it’s easy to overlook that Improbable was favored in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in May. Several 3-year-olds have had a brief moment at the fore of the division in recent months.

Improbable did not perform to expectations in the first two Triple Crown races, finishing fourth via disqualification in the Kentucky Derby on May 4 and sixth in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. Those losses earned him a brief vacation.

Improbable’s campaign resumes on Sunday in the $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes for 3-year-olds at a mile at Del Mar, the start of an expected autumn campaign that may include several important races.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Improbable is expected to be favored, but has an upstart rival to contend with in the undefeated King Jack, who will make his stakes debut on Sunday for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

“I thought it might be a softer spot,” Baffert said. “The horse to beat is Hollendorfer’s. He had a race over the track. I think having a race over this track is huge.”

Owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing, Improbable, drew the outside post in a field of six. He is winless in four starts since winning the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity last December.

There are two other stakes winners in the field. Stubbins won the Pasadena Stakes at a mile on a sealed and sloppy track at Santa Anita in March, and was sixth in the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap on turf here on Aug. 4. Lieutenant Dan won his second stakes in the Real Good Deal Stakes for California-breds at seven furlongs on July 27. This will be Lieutenant Dan’s stakes debut against open company.

The Shared Belief Stakes is the stakes debut for Street Class, who won a maiden special weight race at a mile here on July 31 in his sixth start.

Improbable could have a favorable trip chasing quick runners such as Lieutenant Dan and Seven Scents, who was stakes-placed in two sprints last fall.

King Jack has led or disputed the pace in his two wins – a maiden special weight race at six furlongs at Santa Anita on June 1, and an allowance race with a $40,000 claiming option at seven furlongs here on July 17.

In the latter race, King Jack pulled clear in the final furlong to win by 1 1/4 lengths under Mike Smith, who has the mount on Sunday.

“He was drawing off,” Hollendorfer said. “He’s fast, but I think he can rate.”

Hollendorfer said King Jack will not necessarily have the lead in his first start around two turns in the Shared Belief.

“Mike is a good guy in figuring that stuff out when they break and get position,” he said. “The race is at a mile. As far as progression goes, it’s better than if it was a little more.”