ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, I’M LISTENING

FIRST RACE

The first of 12 races on this New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival card looks like BRAMBLE BAY’s race to lose, as her Beyers are easily the best figures in this field; unfortunately, that also likely means a short price, but it’s tough to make a compelling argument against her here. FROST PHANTOM showed speed in her career debut last year, and if she can come back running in her first start in nearly a year she may be able to last for a share; works do suggest she’s ready despite the respite. DREAMER’S GETAWAY rallied well but too late to catch the gate-to-wire winner in her latest, settling for third as the favorite; has shown more speed than that in the past and should be expected to be more forwardly place today.

SECOND RACE

ROSELBA is the first starter out of the dam, a New Jersey bred stakes-placed runner who posted two of her four career wins sprinting on the main track; sports a couple of solid recent works for this, and trainer Rory Huston’s two winning firsters going back five years were both statebreds ridden by Jose Ferrer on this same card in 2017. ALTA VELOCITA is one of two from trainer Skip Einhorn, who is also represented by LA DIVINA; the former rated nicely in that last one and may have moved too soon, as she was run down late after making the lead in the lane. BIG LOOKER has back figures that are good enough to win this, if she’s able to run to them; remote 2nd in her latest.

THIRD RACE

KODIAK KATIE faced open company in each of her last two starts and the Beyers she posted in those losses make her a serious threat back in with statebreds; three back she was off the board but she and the others were flattered when the winner, Horologist, returned to beat 2018 Eclipse Award winner Jaywalk here last weekend in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks. NELLIE MAC is easy to like off that win last time, as she beat some of these same rivals along the way; last two Beyers give her strong credibility. BANANA ANNA was moving well late in the late stages last time but couldn’t get to NELLIE MAC; quicker fractions would help her cause this afternoon.

FOURTH RACE

I’M LISTENING ships in from out of town and holds a huge edge here in terms of Beyers, and this move from an open AN1X race at Delaware into this statebred allowance race represents a goodsized class drop; formidable at a short price. PORT SALERNO gets back on the turf and this does seem to be her best surface; may be overlooked a bit, as she comes off a claimer for non-winners of two in her latest, but she didn’t run badly over this course last year. STAR FLARE was on the lead in her latest but she has shown in the past that she can also rate off the pace and make one run; that versatility should enable her to work out a trip regardless of race flow.

FIFTH RACE

GOLDEN BROWN and SUNNY RIDGE hold a class edge over these NJ breds, and while the latter has slightly better figures than the former GOLDEN BROWN does have more tactical speed, and draws inside his main rival; perhaps he can get the jump on SUNNY RIDGE, who figures to revert to stalking

tactics today after he weakened on the lead last time following a race-long duel. OPTIC WAY could be the one they both have to catch; he has posted some decent figures in the past when loose on the lead and he can go a long way this afternoon if the track is carrying speed well.

SIXTH RACE

HIS PAL is the first starter out of the dam, who won three races, all of them sprints on the main track; shows a couple of decent works for this. RIGGED ELECTION is clearly the one to beat after suffering a narrow loss in his latest, with the resulting Beyer easily the top figure any of the experienced runners has posted; very logical, but likely overbet. ASSAULT WEAPON has high speed and is a candidate to steal this if he can shake loose here; that debut was a better effort than the running line may indicate, as he had to deal with the rail, a tough post for inexperienced runners.

SEVENTH RACE

WORDS OF A FEATHER was a neck short in her latest, at Delaware, and the Beyer she posted there makes her a top contender on the move back into the statebred ranks; she cuts back to a sprint and though she was off the board there that was a solid field, with the top three all returning to win their next starts, with a median Beyer of 71. IRISH FIX has the speed to stay close, and though she was off the board in her latest she had a tough trip there, when dueling for the lead from the start; dangerous if she can take back off the pace and make one run. ACHIEVING GLORY was a remote 2nd in her turf debut but that was a better effort than it may appear, as that was a day when speed carried well on the grass, and she came from off the pace for the place behind the gate-to-wire winner.

EIGHTH RACE

CEE BEE GEE BEE was getting to heavy favorite LIZ’S CABLE GIRL in the late stages of the Spruce Fir, and though that runner wasn’t pushed all that hard late she also had the race flow in her favor; that was her first start in nine months, and if she can move forward in her 2nd start off the layoff she may be able to turn the tables on that rival. LIZ’S CABLE GIRL is the one to catch and beat off that score, and she’ll be tough to reel in if she’s able to get away with a loose lead; steady Beyers add to the appeal. YOUR PAL failed her turf test in her latest but she figures to rebound on the move back to the main track, draws widest but has the speed to stay close from the start.

NINTH RACE

OGEECHEE was behind a few of these when last seen but he endured a tough trip there, and may not have been on the best part of the track there, down inside on a day when the outer paths seemed to be best; showed two back that he can come from off the pace and score, which is what he may need to do from this wide post. CREDO was no threat to the runaway winner in his latest but he merits respect today based on his prior Beyers, and efforts; figures to be a factor from the start. CATBURT makes his third start off the layoff after a possible “bounce” in his latest; it may be a coincidence but it was under these circumstances that he broke his maiden last year.

TENTH RACE

SAUCY DON may be worth a shot at a decent price here. He was behind a pair of these same runners in his most recent try but he was game to save the show behind those two closers after pressing the pace from the start, and two back he was also against the race flow; may be able to spring the upset here with the right set up. DIAL OPERATOR faded after prompting the pace in his first start off the long layoff but he figures to take a step forward for trainer Jason Servis as he moves from open company back to statebreds; three of his four wins have come over this strip against NJ breds. COZY LOVER has some of the better Beyers in this field; winless on the year but he’s had excuses, and he’s mostly faced open company.

ELEVENTH RACE

EBONY BALL ran a strong race in her turf debut last time, closing with interest to finish within a length of the winner, and if she can run to that effort here she may be able to make the last run; the 71 Beyer she posted in that loss fits very well with these. DEALER’S GIRL is the main speed from the rail, and there’s not all that much early zip in this field; with a clean break she should be able to shake loose under Paco Lopez, and with that type of trip she’ll be tough to catch. CHUBOFFTHEOLDBLOCK has only sprinted on the turf once, last year, and though she was no threat there she does seem to be better at this stage of the game.

TWELFTH RACE

WALLERCITO weakened after setting the pace in his last race but the presence of other speed in that field meant he had to work hard to get to the front; prior Beyers make him a serious contender today, and he figures to offer more value than likely favorite MAGICAL JAIME. The latter drops in for a tag for the first time for trainer Jason Servis,