ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, LUCKY FORTUNE

FIRST RACE

Another 4-day race week comes to an end with an 11-race Sunday card that starts at 1:15 ET and with the familiar mid-summer threat of showers in the forecast, although hopefully once again turf racing will proceed as scheduled. All of the oddnumbered races today are grass races, starting with an opener in which CHANTILLY LILLY finds herself in a very comfy spot after suddenly coming alive in her grass debut last month; just a little move-up off that wakeup should do this. CHAOS RISING gets first Lasix for the prodigal trainer Vazquez, who won a combined 157 races from 2003-05 but has been barely heard from since; you’re hereby forewarned. MY GIRL BILL merits a look when adding blinkers on a turn-back.

SECOND RACE

Unreasonable to expect much more than a $3 win mutuel on DENVER, who’s gone from one winning barn to another by way of the claim box; those back-to-back triumphs demonstrate this filly really is on a rocky mountain high. COTTON TOOYAH, the erstwhile Bozzo remnant, can slug up as an exacta-ender after the others get discouraged by the top pick; outer box helps with the trip. The ofttraded MAGALIE can force the issue for a while.

THIRD RACE

This sudden plunge into the $10k ranks speaks of a quiet desperation in regard to JOLIE BAY, who was taken for a full-retail $50k at the championship meet and has spent the interim with much stouter company; still, if there’s anything to be salvaged, it’ll come against this soft group; looking for the hot bugboy Torres to coax this gray gal into a smooth early rhythm before going about it. Right alongside, SUNSHINE TREASURE stands to move up in a big way following that badly needed race 2 Sundays ago in an off-the turfer; sleeper type for sure. KARENINA draws you in with her handiness, but the 1-for-19 record (including 10 2nds/3rds) lends immediate second thoughts.

FOURTH RACE

GIRL GONE ASTRAY gonna wait for no one once that bell sounds; the speed-show in the slop earlier in the month was a bit reckless, but now that she’s dropping in for $10k, a more sensible run down the backstretch can help toward the end result; Collazo barn is far more capable than the ‘19 mark of 3-for-99 implies. To the far outside, LADY VALENTINA comes the obvious threat when seeking a proper niche for Delgado; the mile, the turf, the higher tags all been a bust; now’d be a good time to level off. FIRST SPRING SONG stands to deliver her best run yet today.

FIFTH RACE

All the props to Maker and his minions in the way they evaluate the respective talents of their innumerable charges and seem to find decent spots at once; that’s the thought process, anyway, in leaning toward BUDGET BUSTER in this open-looking, high-end mdn.-claimer for 2yos going 2 turns over the grass. The Ramsey homebred is by the hot young sire, Paynter, and shows an extensive work slate; tote might harbor the best idea of all. Similarly, EARTHQUAKE comes unveiled by Arindel and Gold and likely will have his share of backers buying in blindly; chestnut colt looking to shake ‘em up at once. ALTON BAY ships in from Ocala for Chaddy and not without intrigue.

Pounded down to nearly even-money in his July 6 debut, GRAN CASIQUE resurfaces following further Barboza polishing when looking to improve over that mild disappointment; liable to make amends in what shapes up as an exceedingly deep 2yo MSW dash commensurate with the $60k purse. To the far outside, I’AM BEOWULF is one of a handful of newbies with a promising pedigree and work tab; Klesaris sure knows what to do with a fast one. NINE POINT FIVE made quite a run in the slop 3 weekends ago; looks to go one better.

SEVENTH RACE

Yep, the layoff approaching 5 months is reason for extreme caution, and yet ARCHITECTURAL looks entirely capable in a well-matched group of bottom-rung open-claiming turf-sprint veterans; sublime Calder work pattern suggests Hickey might well have him primed at first asking. The name of DIAMOND MINT shows up in a lot of the running lines of those entered here by virtue of his 9-1 upset in the key race from 2 Sundays ago; let’s see that again, big boy. HARDENED comes favorably drawn in the open-air outside box as a familiar denizen of these ranks; just has to do better than last time, though.

EIGHTH RACE

Calling LUCKY FORTUNE the day’s best mostly because of who he faces here, and not who he is, although that runner-up finish when dropped to this bottom mdn.-claiming level 2 Sundays ago suggests he’s ready to improve his lot in life; Barboza barn going great guns these days. MANO hasn’t really had a chance to do his best yet, having floundered over turf, then wet; slim pickin’s here, obviously. KING WADE, with 3 runner-up finishes on his PPs, can be part of the minors again.

NINTH RACE

Flat effort from MAJESTIC LUNA when he was favored 3 weeks ago seems largely attributable to the race being on the main; now this useful 3yo is back on the grass (presumably), where all his best work is done; subtle drop in for the $16k can definitely help, but not as much as an honest-to-fast pace up ahead; quite a kicker when circumstances unfold in his favor. SON OF OAHU also can be forgiven his latest (slop) after turning in a big one first off the Armando claim a couple of months ago. BOW TIE AFFAIR resurfaces as a sleeper for D’Angelo, who’s been operating in quite the shrewd manner.

TENTH RACE

After finishing 2nd to a couple of good’ns who were among the principals in the $100k Benny the Bull here Saturday, SQUEEZADIOS went and got himself beat again in his latest when pounded down to odds-on; time to end all that nonsense as this 3yo colt appears clearly best in this field of six. ALLURSTRA, ‘the other Pompay,’ can end the in-house exacta; forget the last one in the slop when looking for a return to form. GNARLY and FRENCHMEN STREET can help fill the tri’s or supers, while questions abound in regard to SPECTRE BOND, who’s surrounded by red flags when making his first start in 20 months.

ELEVENTH RACE

Looking at KEILANI to be the one to further perpetuate the ongoing frustrations of ROSA STAR, a career maiden with a remarkable 11 2nds/3rds from her 18 starts; the former has shown enough to date to pass through this $12.5k threshold for De La Cerda, particularly off that encouraging turf debut last month. AGUAS COLORADAS, one of two in here for Barboza (with nd ARBOLADA), is a firsttimer likely to attract more than her share of play simply through a combination of default and the stable’s positive mojo.