ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, RED FICTION

FIRST RACE

RED FICTION worked super from the gate in blinkers last Sunday, and his previous breezes were also fast. Leading rider Hernandez will pilot the son of 31% 2yo debut sire Signature Red. GOOGLE IT came three-wide from third to lose by a neck to a sharp second-timer in his much-improved second start at this class and distance. VALUABLE PILLOW landed on the edges in both of his outings, and could round out one of the exotics.

SECOND RACE

WATER POLO was bumped at the break and then made a four-wide bid on the turn before tiring in a slow-paced $25K NW3 tilt July 7. He’s descending to a new low, and his Fort Erie-based trainer has impressive stats with new acquisitions. MAJESTIC FEVER checked in fifth in a much tougher spot in his last synthetic track excursion, and he lost a recent FE allowance on the dirt by a head. RAPID BEAT could prevail in the projected front-end battle with STOLEN IDENTITY.

THIRD RACE

MR. DIFFLEY had a troubled start before closing for second behind Ka Gee Gee in a recent five-furlong inner turf dash, and that rival subsequently doubled up in an N1X. AMNESTY returns from a layoff as a first-time gelding, in his local debut. He figures to rally for a share in his first try for the hot DePaulo barn. PAPA D could make most of the running while going a distance that’s farther than his optimum.

FOURTH RACE

DES BOIS raced five-wide when sixth in his final 2yo outing, in an OS maiden special that contained two next-out winners. He’s plunging to the lower ranks for his belated seasonal bow, and doesn’t have much to beat in this $7.5K seller. VICTORIOUS BEAR is dropping from $25K and adding Lasix for his second trip postward. J M R SILENT LAKE is by the good 14% debut sire Silent Name, and is commencing his career with blinkers and Lasix.

FIFTH RACE

FINAL RHAPSODY is by the high-percentage firstout sire Munnings, and his dam notched her debut at 2. The Chiefswood Stable homebred has worked extensively, and is well-regarded by Da Silva. NEW DEAL, by 8% 2yo debut sire Hard Spun, is a halfbrother to stakes winners Like a Gem and Win and Reign. The homebred is a full-brother to the G3-placed Ruby Lips. ZOOLOGICAL was competitive in all three of his outings. Use him on the bottom of intra-race wagers, along with DIFFERENT DAYS.

SIXTH RACE

EXECUTIVE SIGHT dueled up front with Canmore before checking in second to that future N1X winner two back in a two-turn inner track event at this level. He could be an inner turf horse-for-course. Interestingly, he’s switching jockeys with Royal Laser, and apprentice Fukumoto should be a good fit for him. TIMESKIP rallied four-wide to upset Seguimi last time over an inside-biased main track. The steady 4yo is equally adept on either surface. CHEEK TO CHEEK brings improving Beyers on Tapeta to this event. Note that he beat NW2 rivals three starts ago in his lone turf try on the main course.

SEVENTH RACE

OCCASIONAL VIEW gave the favored Constantino a run for his money when making his 11yo debut three weeks ago, ending up second with an 84 Beyer. He should be dangerous with that tightener under his classy girth. FRONT NINE exits an improved run in his second race off the bench in a $25K claimer won by Reconfigure, who subse

quently ran third in an N2X before capturing the finals of the Woodbine Turf Spint Series. BADJEROS BOY snapped out of a slump when taking a one-mile route at this level after getting away slowly and saving ground on the turn in his latest.

EIGHTH RACE

SUMMER SUNDAY is hard to go past off her threerace win streak in stakes at the meet, during which she put up three consecutive Beyers in the low 90s. Her tactical speed is one of her most effective weapons, and the stretchout from six to seven furlongs shouldn’t be a problem for the country’s top female sprinter. KATIE BABY rallied wide for second behind the top pick in her penultimate start going 6 1/2 furlongs in the G3 Hendrie. She’s turning back off a heartbreaking loss in the G3 Ontario Matron, from which the third-place finisher exited to win the Flaming Page Stakes. DOUBLE MEDAL has worked a sizzling five-eighths on the Tapeta since coming up empty on the inner turf in the G3 Ontario Colleen. DEVINE MISCHIEF is eligible to get back on track following a freshening.

NINTH RACE

SLAM had a troubled trip in his subpar showing two back going seven-eighths on the main turf. He took the long way home while closing for second most recently on the inner course, and may have found a field that he can handle here on the E.P Taylor. REBELLION’S DREAM brings solid Fort Erie turf form to this $7.5K NW2 event. SYNERGIZED is reasonably spotted off a game score over $15K maidens. Trainer Kevin Attard is serving a short suspension, and Sam Parro is his current conditioner.

TENTH RACE

SOUPER CATCH was competitive in first-level optional-claiming company at Gulfstream before his last start there. The 5yo has worked thrice on the Tapeta since shipping north of the border, and a hot Da Silva has the mount for Casse. MACHO DANCER ran well in both of his turf starts this summer since returning from a layoff, including a wide/closing third in an N1X. He’s equally adept on either local surface when he’s on his game. RED BO got away slowly last time before closing widest for a narrow loss in an optional starter on the lawn. Use COLEYVILLE in the lower rungs of vertical bets.