ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, CALL YOU TOMORROW

FIRST RACE

CALL YOU TOMORROW should be tough to beat based on his highly rated runner-up finish at this level last out. The improving colt posted two sharp works since raced; he drew outside his main rivals and has speed for a pressing trip in the clear. Likely short price in this six-runner field, but looks like a “most probable winner” from here. BABY GRONK finished behind the top choice last out as the favorite. He ran okay, earned the highest speed figure of his career, posted two easy works since and should be a pace factor. The speed of the field probably is EMTECH, who set a fast pace last out at six and a half, weakened in deep stretch and finished third. He was claimed off the effort, returns in a starter allowance from which he cannot be claimed (signals optimism), and from the rail post probably has no other option but speed to the front. Comeback closer THIN LINE will rally late in a race that could unfold at a fast pace. JEN GO UNCHAINED might be ranked too low by this handicapper. His last-out maiden win might be better than the Beyer indicates.

SECOND RACE

SWEET CONNIE GIRL probably will start at a short number in this N2L claiming route for fillies and mares. Most of her recent races are creditable, which is not the case for her rivals. Although ‘GIRL spent most of her career racing on turf, her two starts on dirt produced two runner-up finishes. Beaten favorite her last two starts, beaten favorite three of her last five, she is likely to be favored again. The horse to beat, uncertain if she is the horse to trust. CONFORMATION drops for the first time to the lowest class level for winners, while making her first start in nearly six months. Her one career victory was on this racetrack one year ago. WHOA NESSIE is quick enough to make the lead, and the truth is that this field does not including any serious speed. She could make the front, and she could get brave.

THIRD RACE

PAINTING CORNERS and S Y SKY finished one-two last out in a turf sprint stakes that is similar to this allowance turf sprint. There is little reason to expect the order to change, unless one believes S Y SKY could have rallied past PAINTING CORNERS if that rival did not drift out through the stretch. The best horse probably won. That is PAINTING CORNERS, who has more tactical speed than her rival, is quick enough to establish position after breaking from the rail, and will get first run again. No knock on S Y SKY, a consistent mare with 13 one-two finishes from 14 starts. She gets a beneficial post change moving from inside to an outside post, she will be racing in the clear, and she will be finish. Good rematch between two sharp turf sprinters. FAHAN MURA probably is using this five-furlong race to prep for two turns. After all, it is her first start since February. However, the up-front style she employs running long suggests she might also be effective running short. She is arguably the class of the field, with 9 wins from 25 starts, and should be forwardly placed as usual. KENTAN ROAD is quick, and speed has done well this summer in turf sprints.

FOURTH RACE

TOTALLY TIGER ran well in his third-place debut; the 2-year-old gelding might graduate second out, dropping in for a $50k statebred tag. He seemed somewhat green in his debut, but showed run and galloped out with energy after the wire. Now that he has had a race, and a race over the track, improvement is likely for trainer Andrew Lerner. This Cal-bred maiden-50 field does not appear to be all that tough. YOU’RERIGHT AGAIN earned very good Brohamer-generated pace figures finishing third last out. It looks like an improved race on paper, although visually this handicapper was not impressed. Still a high preference as second choice in this field. First-time starter SEESAWSAM, sibling to a pair of multiple winners, makes his debut for Peter Miller and Flavien Prat. Could be a

runaway winner, could be a low-odds bust. Bottom line this race: top choice TOTALLY TIGER would be a solid “single.”

FIFTH RACE

MOUNTAIN SPIRIT was an impressive maiden during winter at Santa Anita, third both starts in in fast maiden special races on the hill. Off since February, first-time gelding, speed to stay close, and a productive trainer-jockey combo (MullinsSmith), this 3yo might be a good one. Would love him on the hill at Santa Anita, unsure if this fivefurlong trip might be too short. DUCHAMP returns from a four-month layoff for a stable whose horses have been firing all summer. A son of Curlin that definitely wants more than 5f, he will be running late possibly at a price. John Shirreffs trainees have been running much better than the stats suggest. DUCHAMP looms a comeback upset candidate rallying from far back. What type trip is anyone’s guess. Chances are this is merely a prep, but he will finish. DEUCE, in the money his first two starts, misfired last time in his first try at Del Mar. Hence, the switch to turf. Would expect him to run imilar to his first two starts, which both were very good.

SIXTH RACE

SPEND SPEND SPEND drops from N2X to the N1X level at which she won earlier. Entered for the optional $40k claim tag, comfortably drawn outside, for the productive combo of Brian Koriner and Joe Talamo, she is the one to beat from just off the pace. MESSAGE was compromised by a fast pace and an inside post in a big field last out. She dueled and cracked. Not much better here in post 3, but rider switch to Bejarano suggests she will not be sent this time. Likely to employ an off-the-pace strategy just as her maiden win two back. That race earned an exceptionally high figure on a variety from speed-figure services. MESSAGE would likely crush this N1X if she ran back to that number. It was earned at Santa Anita, but two starts at Del Mar, MESSAGE ran below par. Wonder if we might see a better filly after this meet ends. DAY BY DAY is a six-win pro from Churchill Downs, claimed off a win in a productive race and making her local debut for trainer Jonathan Wong. The field of $32k claiming sprinters she defeated last out included 2-3-4 finishers that returned to win their next start.

SEVENTH RACE

Interesting turf sprint, and once again leading rider Prat ends up on the most likely winner. LIL MILO returns from a five-month freshening, having scored dominant wins both previous turf sprints. Sharp trainer Alfredo Marquez, solid work pattern, top rider and an up-front running style over this speed-friendly course. PSYCHO DAR is the speed of the speed. He goes fast, and tries to wire the field. It almost worked three weeks ago on this layout. He led to deep, deep stretch. Come atch him. GENERAL INTEREST is a solid late threat if the pace collapses. Sharp come-from-behind Cal-bred win over this course, and a running style opposite the top two choices. That is good. Protection from the back of the field. STOP THE VIOLENCE was the recipient of a heap of late money in his recent comeback, from 4-1 to 2-1 in about the last minute. But the Peter Miller trainee misfired. Maybe he is not good enough for open N1X?

EIGHTH RACE

KING JACK can upset likely favorite IMPROBABLE. A pair of very good 3yo colts race a mile, and this is only the third career start for KING JACK. But his first two were impressive, both highly rated sprint wins. Now he goes long, with speed to make the lead, and numbers to run to. His pedigree might eke out a mile, tab for a minor upset first time route. IMPROBABLE is the class of the field, a G1 winner returning from layoff after losing as the favorite in a couple of big races this spring: the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. IMPROBABLE is among the top-ranked 3yos in the country, or at least he was early this year. Should return this late summer/fall as an improved horse. Not sure if he “has to” win first start back, however. LIEUTENANT DAN looks like the third horse in what is essentially a two-horse race.

NINTH RACE

BELLA FIGURA is an eight-start maiden, but she also is making her first start for trainer Richard Baltas, whose stable is firing. The presence of Flavien Prat indicates positive intent. The BaltasPrat combo is 8-for-14 with six-month comebackers over the past four years. DADDY’S MELODY set a fast pace last time and tired at the eight pole in an interesting California debut. Blinkers off, up-front style still expected, chance on the lead if she rations her speed just a little. Also-eligible COLDWATER, back-to-back runner-up, will be finishing from the rear of the field. BELLIZE stretches out, second time out. Not sure what she is, but respect connections and her speed. OBJECTIVE drops from maiden special-weight and will be among the favorites.