ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SIDING SPRING

FIRST RACE

QIAN B C might be out of chances after seven starts - six on turf - without getting there first, but he has run well enough to get through this condition more than once without always getting lucky; took a shot at likely favorite WORTH A SHOT two back and got by that rival in the stretch, before the seven furlongs appeared to get to him, and he had no chance last time when trying to rally from last behind a pair of talented sprinters. WORTH A SHOT a full-brother to Grade 1 winner Voodoo Song and he did improve when switched to turf despite settling for second-best; cuts back to six as the horse to beat making his second start off the layoff. THE JOKE’S ON YOU doesn’t have enough turf pedigree to get really interested in but he has run okay in his first two starts on dirt and goes for a trainer who is 3 for his last 14 (21%) first time on turf with maidens in sprints, $3.68 ROI.

SECOND RACE

MOVIE SCORE hasn’t won since blowing out maiden claimers in her career debut for Scott Lake but she earned a 73 Beyer in her second NY start and has been facing better horses along the way while trying turf several times; had no chance with Carrizo two back and was wide last time for $25k; don’t have a lot of confidence in her but she may have found the right field. SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM’s hasn’t improved at all as a 3yo and her lone career win came sprinting on turf but she seems to handle both surfaces and she has yet to face a field as weak as this one over fast dirt (which she may or may not get in this spot); one chance under those conditions as she drops in class. INCREDIBLE MISS was a winner over track and trip in the slop when heavily-favored for Pletcher back in June; improved upon that figure in her first start off the claim two back and gets a cut back in distance for this after weakening around two turns at Saratoga last time.

THIRD RACE

RED MULE ran well in each of his first three career starts sprinting on turf, including that NY debut back in April when taking charge on a fast pace and just getting nailed by a longshot closer; didn’t send from the outside post when last seen and then went to the sidelines, suggesting an excuse for that poor effort. STANDUP made a big late run to fall just short of subsequent stakes winner Yes I Am Free on debut and faced that runner again in the Texas Glitter in his second start; drops after facing a tough field and failing to impact over a mile last time. HAPPY HOME made two starts vs. MSW rivals early last year then went to the sidelines for an extended period; makes his first start back with needed class relief.

FOURTH RACE

REGALIAN was defeated by GYPSUM JOHNNY for a $10k tag back in May but thought he ran at least as well as that rival in that spot while going early to take the race to favored Professor Snape and then paying the price late; has won two in row sprinting for this trainer and was game in that last one to close down a pair of better horses after they tired in the late stages. GYPSUM JOHNNY got back on track when closing down the top one with the last move on May 26th to post his first win in nearly two years; faced a much strong field of state-bred $25k claimers last time and got stuck very wide throughout before getting up for 4th. SIR BALLANTINE went to turf off the claim two back then was cut in half for his second start and stayed on late to overtake a weaker field with an 81 Beyer; tough on these with his good race but he is a closer in a race without much pace.

FIFTH RACE

MAXWELL ESQUIRE was conservatively ridden on debut at Saratoga and finished up pretty well for 2nd behind a dominant winner in the favored Mo Ready; tough post but tough with any improvement on that first run. BRILLIANT BROOKS did not break sharply from the gate and was under a ride throughout while never a factor in her dirt sprint