ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, RIGGED ELECTION

FIRST RACE

BLURRED LINE gets back on the turf and this does seem to be his best surface judging from the Beyers he’s posted on grass and dirt; ships in from Saratoga and picks up Paco Lopez on the switch from the main track, and trainer Danny Gargan excels with horses making this move. HONEY DONT is easy to like based on the runner-up finish against a step better (non-winners of four) in his latest; steady recent Beyers add to the appeal. TOSS was forced to steady at the start in his latest and that cost him, as early speed is a big part of his game; license to improve with a clean getaway.

SECOND RACE

RIGGED ELECTION is very obvious after running 2nd in her latest and beating several of these same statebreds along the way, but there are few compelling alternatives; could sit another perfect trip off the speeds, and that would only make her tougher in here, albeit at a short price. MORNING JACKPOT may look to shake loose this time, after chasing the pacesetter in the early stages last time; that softened her up, and she was passed rather easily by today’s top pick, but her chances improve if she’s able to shake loose and control the pace this time around. GROOVY SURPRISE is kin to three multiple winners, including Mello Groove, a five time winner, with all of those victories coming in dirt sprints; sports a couple of bullets for this debut.

THIRD RACE

FIRST DEAL is very sharp right now and may only be getting better for top trainer Jorge Navarro. He was impressive in victory in the Jersey Shore Stakes, comin from off the pace and drawing off nicely, and he should be well spotted behind a contested pace here; shorter distance today but clearly the one to beat off that last figure/ effort. DUGOUT is two-for-two at this abbreviated distance, including a sharp score in an optional claimer at Arlington in his 2019 debut last time; one of three entered by trainer Larry Rivelli in this Decathlon Stakes. STRONG WILL is another, and he merits respect off that authoritative win at Mountaineer in his most recent; barn not likely to run both of these speedsters, and whichever one goes for Rivelli will likely be the one to catch.

FOURTH RACE

PHIL THE BANKER is out of a dam who won six races, and though she was best going long and on turf this colt has shown some speed on the main track in the mornings; should offer some value, given the low-profile connections. SHANGHAISCHOOL, on the other hand, is a threat by default given his connections, as trainer Jason Servis and jockey Paco Lopez win at a very high rate, individually as well as when teamed; kin to local stakes-placed runner Auldwood Lane; dam was the extremely quick sprinter Ever Always, who won four of five career starts. ATTIKA hails from a strong first-out barn; unraced dam’s lone starter to date was minor stakes winner Fairfaithhills.

JAYLAN and DIAMOND PLAY were separated by a half-length in their last meeting, with the latter getting the better of the former, but perhaps JAYLAN can turn the tables in this rematch, as DIAMOND PLAY may not get another perfect trip, as she did in that last one; looks like these two one way or the other based on the Beyers they posted in that race, as the others have generally not been able to post figures better than the high 70’s. TANYA’S GEM fits based the 81 Beyer she put up three back at Saratoga, when she was loose on the lead; looks like the one to catch, and she’ll take them as far as she can on the lead once again.

SIXTH RACE

RESONATE went down as the favorite when last seen but she clearly had an excuse there, forced to check in the late stages due to traffic and then put up to 2nd via disqualification; overall record a concern, as she does like to run 2nd, but she did score two back, overcoming more early trouble in that one. MISS MI MI makes her first start off the claim for trainer Frank Poalucci off a game win as the heavy favorite; resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility. WHAT TO EXPECT did benefit from an ideal trip in those last two, including the win in her latest, but that’s a byproduct of her positional speed, which she should be able to use once again here; wider post does complicate things, however, and her Beyers are a touch light.

SEVENTH RACE

RAPSTOREROCKS is out of a dam who won eight races, including four sprints, and she has produced four winners thus far, including Cable Jett, who posted three of his four career wins on the turf, and La Sirenita, who won her debut on the grass; works look solid enough and trainer Kelly Breen wins at a very good rate with firsters, especially those with swift breezes. DYNADRIVE adds blinkers off a narrow miss in his first career start, at Colonial, where he nearly overcame a slow pace to make the last run; note the barn’s record with horses making their second career starts. ARTEMUS EAGLE is kin to Midas Cat, who won three races, including a turf score; barn always merits respect with firsters on the grass.

EIGHTH RACE

JAZZY J eyes her third straight and if she’s able to run to her last couple of figures she’s going to be tough to deny; scored under these same circumstances last time and seems to be in an even better spot in terms of pace, as she should get quicker splits today than she did in that sprint. FLAN was sharp in that maiden score, and she may well be this good, as that was her first and only start on the main track; should be prominent from the start. PURO BLANCO makes her local and seasonal debut, and while the layoff and the short sprint try likely mean this is a prep she does sport a couple of works that strongly hint she’s ready to run off the bench.

NINTH RACE

CRIMSON HAYES was behind both KING OF SPADES and MARKSMAN in that last meeting but that was no easy trip, as he was under pressure from the start and he yielded to that pair only in the late stages; this rematch seems to present a much different race flow, with CRIMSON HAYES likely able to shake loose and control the pace at this extended distance, and he has run well at 11 furlongs in the past. KING OF SPADES is extremely sharp right now, having won four straight, and he’s certainly the one to fear once again; consistent Beyers and strong late kick make him very logical, but also make him likely to be a short price. MARKSMAN was a neck short of catching the favorite in that last nd one; looms the main threat to that rival amongst the closers.

TENTH RACE

FANCY DRESS PARTY likely bled in the Acorn, as that was a sub-par race for her and she returns now with Lasix; she is quick enough to get to the lead in this Miss Woodford, especially from this inside post, and if that’s the case she does figure tough to reel in. LEXINTONIA will look to prevent that scenario from developing, as she has some speed of her own; game win in her debut at Saratoga, and she has worked very well since that effort. KA GEE GEE has put it together of late, winning two straight; no telling how she handles the dirt in her first start on this surface but she may well once again be perfectly spotted behind the pacesetters.

ELEVENTH RACE

KING DADDIO lost all chance off the turn in that last try, as he was carried very wide, well past the middle of the course, when a rival came out to her left; she was moving well in the late stages of her prior run and she can make the last bid here given a contested pace up front. KING LEO just beat several of these same rivals, including the top pick, taking full advantage of a perfect stalking trip just off the loose speed; clearly dangerous off that line, and with a similar trip. BANK NOTE has proven speed and will once again be the one they’ll have to catch; first start off the claim, out of a race against similar.

TWELFTH RACE

MS. GENUINE was a good 2nd when dropped to this level in her latest, rallying from off the pace in a race that was light on speed; meets a seemingly average field for the class level and the main threat late if she runs to that race. KARABESSA was 2nd behind a runaway winner in her local debut, a race that obviously suggests she fits at this level; gets more ground today and figures to be closer to the pace than she was in her first start over this strip. POSTINO’S REQUEST faded when on the lead in her latest but she ran better races in her prior starts when she was allowed to sit off the pace and make one run; expecting her to revert to those tactics today.

THIRTEENTH RACE

PAINTER’S PRIDE was a good third in his latest, closing well enough after racing off the pace in a race that was light on speed; should be running late given a better set up. ALPHA TEAM was a close 2nd last time out, and though he benefited from a forward trip and a controlled early pace he should be well spotted from the start here as well; may get first run at expected speed TACTICAL PURSUIT. The latter draws widest but should be able to make the lead from his outside post; way down in class and obviously the main threat for Breen, who could be sitting on a very big day on Sunday, with several live runners.

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility.