ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, PERU

FIRST RACE

Can find several plausible winners of this one-mile older maiden race but guess is FREEDOM’S FLIGHT offers the best mix of price and win chance. Solid IND tune-up for this and the form line through Social Paranoia is encouraging. A solid pace up front would help. TELL YOUR DADDY didn’t stay 9f three back and didn’t show best on dirt last out, and despite the short chart comment from his turf mile two starts ago, he finished quite fast there. A. K. SAFARI might not so much have improved last time as get in a shorter field. CHEWING GUM ran too recently in SoCal for my taste. Ship, barn change, work, race - don’t like it at a price this short and he’s a 4yo maiden.

SECOND RACE

First-timer BARON IT ALL kind of leaped off the page for me. Maker has gotten adept at these firsters in turf routes and there’s not a hint of a hole in homebreds work pattern for debut. Like pedigree and would like morning-line odds, which easily could wind up lower. CREATIVE PLAN went evenly in a LRL turf sprint making career debut, a performance that hints at a miler awaiting his chance. Pedigree suggests a route and Proctor didn’t ship all this way for a look at the Tennessee border. CHAPALU gets Lasix for second start. Good speed sprinting in debut but no surprise if he can rate some, too, for a barn that has excellent numbers with 2yos.

THIRD RACE

PERU didn’t seem to be loving the 12-furlong trips this spring, got rained off turf two back, and came with a solid enough run last out in Ellis stakes that this allowance / opt claimer seems well within range. Drop in for the $62.5K tag seems perfectly reasonable for a horse 5-0-0-0 in 2019. That win over the course last season looms large, too. ORAGEUSE didn’t knock anyone’s socks off but the MNR $100K stakes third last out represented another marginal step of improvement for a filly who has been making strides all year and, even if just holding baseline, has gotten good enough to figure here. MADAME MILAN has second-startof-season upside after making a good run into a moderate LRL pace in belated 2019 bow.

FOURTH RACE

Let’s see, point for the $44K maiden purse at GP with $250K auction buy JUST PLAYING, or use that debut run as a bridge to the $130K maiden purse at KD? Encouraging middle move into contention before even finish in that short two-turn route and I won’t be surprised if she shows more positional pace this time. SISTA OF WAR broke from post 1 making career debut in a 10-horse Ellis turf mile and after failing to show much speed came with a steady run into a moderate pace in a race coded front-runner-favoring. She should have more upside on the day making second start than third-time starting WITEZ, who finished in front of her last out with a race under her belt and a more forward trip.

FIFTH RACE

BIG BELLA BROWN ran poorly in his lone turf start (a June 2018 LRL turf sprint) but most horses by Big Brown are better on turf than dirt and I can give this one a second chance at the right price. Maker was training away on BBB in NY but appears to have been holding out for this very, very rich starter allowance. FAST BOAT ticks a lot of boxes for a barn that managed the difficult feat of multiple wins on a KD card Thursday. Faced much tougher foes last time at Ellis and would land on top were this race a half-furlong shorter. SHARM EL SHEIKH has done much of his best work over the KD course (4-1-1-2) and ought to appreciate the cutback from a short route to a longish sprint.

SIXTH RACE

Race to me looks like it’s open to longshot chances. CHA CHA HEELS well off her best in last two starts

but races three, four and six back put her in the conversation at a big price. Barn is 15-percent and not incompetent, and she’s not entered for a tag here despite previous claiming runs and the back to back duds. ZUZANNA like the top pick enters after a subpar performance and like her has form not at all distant that fits this race. AIFE been on top of her game four starts in a row, but that top is just not especially high. Looks more a lateral class move from the N1X.

SEVENTH RACE

Chalking out with DONTBLAMEROCKET. Lightly raced 5yo had spent entire start-and-stop career with one barn before being claimed May 24 and I wondered if different connections would be able to unearth his better form. Well, he was much the best at SAR facing stronger foes than this first off the claim and has gotten a month to recover. Stalked a slow pace there and should have more speed in front of him this time. LUSITANO rained off turf last time and ran decently last out despite surface switch in comeback run that might have him set for a career best. RIVER ECHO in crackling form right now, but that has come on dirt, and his pace is going to bump against a couple other speedy horses drawn to his inside.

EIGHTH RACE

WILDLIFE not only won a first-level allowance race stepping from a second-start maiden win up to face winners, she did so with an early move into a slow Ellis Park pace. No shame given draw and wide trip in the DMR G1 showing last out and since she was gaining going 9f there the longer trip here might suit. Worked back after returning to KEE base and remains a filly with upside. PRINCESA CAROLINA turned in a solid G3 performance last out at AP but was run over by Cafe Americano, the last of four Chad Brown-trained graded stakes winners on the Arlington Million program. See no such rival entered here, and other than the Regret performance she’s been solid on turf. Could see taking a shot with BELLE LAURA in the top slot off the troubled SAR trip. She needed her race two back and even in her best race this year, the Herecomesthebride, she didn’t get the right trip, really.

NINTH RACE

SOCIAL PARANOIA probably regressed a touch last out at SAR after the big BEL Derby run two back, and the KD course bears more similarities to Belmont than Saratoga. He stays, he has quality - he just won’t be much of a price. LIMONITE is the longer price that holds interest. He failed to develop much on dirt this year after showing late 2yo promise, but this is very much a turf-oriented pedigree and he showed spark last out in the Hall of Fame Stakes. CHANNEL ISLAND like so many horses Maker has claimed the last several years apparently was taken with the idea of stretching him out to longer routes. It’s working so far and his last, against elders at SAR, was good enough to put him in the win mix.

TENTH RACE

FLOWER POINT managed to win her debut over five furlongs on grass but that distance looks shorter than what she really needs. Can’t say much about the mile try since her saddle slipped, but this longer sprint should really suit and she appears to possess adequate quality. REFLECTED was playing catch-up over the LRL turf last out after breaking slowly from the fence. That was a race she likely needed following a long break, and she remains relatively unexposed on turf with a promising debut win still a marker of potential. BENTLEY’S

DREAM did run well over the Arlington lawn (show horse returned with a strong win) in a shorter turf sprint but at the expected odds, I’ll take a “lets see her do it again” approach.