ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SECONDARY MARKET

FIRST RACE

GETOFFMYBACK got involved in some early bumping two back when weakening behind Data Driven then was no match last time when that rival exploded to a 101 Beyer out of nowhere at Saratoga; drops off the claim for Atras looking like the main speed in this field. BRIMSTONE lost his form after being claimed at Saratoga last summer and finally went to the sidelines following two poor performances at Laurel in January; has the back class to be hard on this field if he returns refreshed and ready to fire. ORPHEUS has been picking up checks consistently all year but he remains winless since taking his dirt debut in this country way back in January of 2018; will try to run late once again. PROFESSOR SNAPE has the races to contend here if he can re-find his form off the trainer change; has been tough at this level since dropping at the end of last year.

SECOND RACE

SIDD FINCH isn’t one to place much confidence in but he is the kind of new face that could offer some value in this race as he finally drops in class and returns to turf for Weaver; faced some tough competition on grass as a 2yo, and ran well, before missing a lot of time, and he has raced on turf only once since starting back. THE HAPPY GIANT finished a solid 5th in his NY debut back in June with a 65 Beyer and he matched that number last time on the drop while having no excuse in that spot; likely contends if just holding that form. PAYNTER’S PRIZE has not run well in his two starts so far this year after being dropped to this level; was running races last year that would likely beat this field but he is hard to have much confidence in right now.

THIRD RACE

BUILD TO SUIT and IDENTITY POLITICS form a short-priced entry that is tough to go against in this spot, as they look like to the two most likely winners. BUILD TO SUIT exploded off the layoff to blowout entry-level allowance rivals with a 101 Beyer, then missed more time and returned to just miss in the Morrissey after breaking slowly. IDENTITY POLITICS got a little lucky to win two back when his stablemate Payne encountered real trouble in the stretch but that was just another solid effort from this horse, who returned last time to rally into a fast pace for 2nd behind the talented Borracho. T LOVES A FIGHT has refound his form since being claimed by these connections and he finished a good 4th in the Morrissey before landing in a very tough allowance field last time; can get any kind of trip from his outside draw.

FOURTH RACE

ADORABLE MAYA debuted over a sloppy track and was outrun early before racing on gamely in the stretch while down toward the deeper inside paths; Bernardini filly is a half to the multiple stakes winner Icabad Crane and she can improve with that race behind her. DANCING KIKI has a pedigree that may be slanted more toward alternative surfaces but she has a solid family underneath her on the dam side and Ryerson is underrated with his first-time starters - past five years, 2yo first time starter, dirt, sprint: 5 wins and 4 2nds from 23 starts, $4.25 ROI. MARU is by a sire off to a hot start with his 2yos (Competitive Edge 7 for 25 so far with juvenile first-time starters from his first crop) and from a dam who is a winning sister to Pioneer of the Nile, and who has dropped six winners from her first eight foals to race; plenty of pedigree for a trainer who can win on debut.

FIFTH RACE

RHODE ISLAND finally got to the winner’s circle when dropped in class in June and he ran well last time despite having to settle for second-best to his front-running entrymate; good spot here if he can just hold his form. HONORABLE HERO hit the board in his first four turf starts this year and has tried some tougher spots since being claimed for $40k in June; good try last time when cutting the pace while tracked by favored Gosilently, and battling gamely down to deep stretch before letting go. CROQUE MONSIEUR has made two starts in allowance company since arriving stateside and hasn’t found enough of a finish either time while picking up some pieces; benefits from this class relief.

SIXTH RACE

SECONDARY MARKET broke slowly in her debut and wound up in a tough spot at the back of that field early, before ultimately having to send around wide to the stretch to get a run; thought that was a deceptively good debut in a race that was dominated up front and she may be hard to handle here with any improvement. HARLEM HEIGHTS isn’t necessarily bred to win first out sprinting but she has a very big pedigree being a half-sister to top-class Grade 1 winners Point of Entry and Pine Island, from the family of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Pleasant Home; gets the extra half-furlong to work with after training right along through the summer. NEW DAY DAWNING is by a top sire and she is the first foal from her Grade 2 winning dam (she posted all of her career wins on either turf or synthetic), who is herself a sister to Grade 1 winner Mast Track; was training at Saratoga without getting a start in for a trainer who is capable first out.

SEVENTH RACE

INDOCHINE debuted sprinting at Saratoga and was putting in a strong finish from out of it when having to steady in deep stretch and settling for 3rd; War Front filly is bred to stretch out being out of a mare who is a sister to Bodemeister. WINDFALL PROFIT debuted in a tough race at Saratoga and weakened in the stretch after sitting a good trip; has important route experience than many of her rivals lack and can easily improve second time out. SCAPE another War Front debuting for Mott and she is bred being from a dam who is a sister to top-class Group 1 runners Golan and Tartan Bearer; works look good on the way in. LOOK ME OVER by Hard Spun and out of Waster Tears, who was a multiple graded stakes winner on turf in her career; first three foals from this dam are winners, including turf winner and stakes-placed Coffee Crush.

EIGHTH RACE

AUGUSTA MOON faced the talented filly Nay Lady Nay in her turf debut then dropped in class last time and easily overpowered her rivals in the stretch to win with a 75 Beyer; goes off the claim for Maker in a spoit where he can’t lose her. STAR SWEPT made her turf debut off a long layoff and got shuffled out of position around the turn, then faced colts in her next start and came with a good finish to close that field down in the stretch; returns to face winners for the first time after missing more time but can improve again. CONNECTIVITY scored easily on the class drop two back then rallied from last and appeared to hang at the end last time when settling for second-best; logical in current form as she goes off the claim again.

NINTH RACE

AMUNDSON still lightly-raced in a race where the others have had their chances and thought he ran well last time when chasing a strong winner (92 Beyer for Leaky Cup) on the lead and tiring late to lose second to a deep closer; needs to improve but eligible to do so after having only two starts over fast dirt so far in his career. LUTSKY has been inconsistent but he had also run the best races in this field, including that game effort for 2nd two back in this condition; back in with NY-breds as a new gelding after proving to be no match for modest stakes horses at Monmouth last time. INVEST still appears to have some upside after finally breaking his maiden when last seen in May when getting a good trip into a fast pace in the slop; also a new gelding as he returns from a layoff with a trainer change.

TENTH RACE

SEEK AND DESTROY came back as a 3yo to win the Soaring Softly in a much-improved effort and she went to Woodbine last time to easily defeat a weaker field from a stalking position; was no match for stablemate Blowout two back when sent out to the lead but would think she’ll be off the pace once again this time. EAST was a very good 2yo in France and she came over here to finish a good 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup from a tough post; hasn’t improved so far as a 3yo, though thought she ran well in her first start back and she did try to stay closer to the pace last time to no avail; may just be in the right spot here as she adds lasix for the first time. BLOWOUT logical in this spot after running well without winning in her last two starts; is only 2 for 6 to start but she has been right there at the end every time and may be better without the early lead.

ELEVENTH RACE

ITSAKEYPER won off the layoff after sitting a very good trip, but she was game to hold on there over a distance that might be too far for her; class drop helps filly whose turf form is solid overall. BID YOU ADIEU’s lone turf start came in her debut for these connections and she was competitive there before just missing; back to turf for the first time since after being re-claimed. SOMETHING JOYFUL held her own vs. better horses last year and has faced better in her two starts so far this year without improving; needed class relief but may not have much room to improve as a 5yo.