ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DREAM BIGGER

FIRST RACE

PEGGY SUE not one to take a lot of stock in as one of the favorites but she has enough speed to keep close in a weak race that isn’t likely to be run at a fast pace; consistent figures and she had a bit of an excuse two back when bobbling and bumping at the start in a much tougher race for the level before getting 3rd, and then coming back to finish 3rd again last time. TOO MUCH DRAMA broke her maiden way back in 2016 at Del Mar and hasn’t won since; up against it as a closer in this field but a new face shipping in after making late runs in her last two starts out of town. DAZZLING SPEED has speed and has run three straight figures that make her a contender here; that was not a good loss three back when in control and failing to last over this trip.

SECOND RACE

DARING DISGUISE ran well in his turf debut sprinting and has matched that figure a couple of times since while keeping much better company; figures tough on this class drop as he cuts back to sprint. ALPHASTEST showed good speed at this level two back but that was going seven and he couldn’t hold a perfectly-ridden winner at the end; thought he ran equally well last time while no match for better horses and he is dangerous in this spot dropping back down. IMPLIED VOLATILITY a firsttime starter for top connections and is likely just debuting where he fits for this tag; half-brother to two-time turf sprint winner Gran the Man should handle this surface and distance.

THIRD RACE

CHIPOLATA was stakes-placed in her final two starts in France prior to shipping over to just miss 2nd in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks; looked good winning over course and distance off the layoff and she has run well in her two starts since, as well. XENOBIA became a Group 3 winner prior to leaving Ireland; was off the layoff when breaking slowly and then racing outside for a long way when finishing behind the top one last time. SCOTTISH JIG left England following a career-best effort in her 3yo finale and she easily wired a field going longer off the layoff; got headstrong when cut back last time then came up empty in the stretch; may wind up on a clear early lead once again.

FOURTH RACE

TEQUILA FOG was no match for MSW rivals on debut at Saratoga but she did shoe brief early speed in that race before getting outrun, and she was racing on mildly again at the end; class drop is significant and she has more speed than it may appear. HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH is by a sire who wins with 20% of his juvenile first time starters and she is a half-sister to a pair of eight-time dirt sprint winners from this dam; Weaver underrated with his first time starters. FORTUNE’S GIRL debuted back in June and got outrun by a sharp front-running winner; drops for her return and switches to Rosario.

FIFTH RACE

CURLUCK was switched to the Servis barn last December and has improved with each and every start fso far this year; last was her best yet when steadying early then moving outside and winning as she pleased in the stretch over Here Comes Jackie, who shipped to Saratoga last month to defeat a field of high-priced claimers. GOLCONDA a stablemate of the top one and she is getting significant class relief for this as she stretches out; has much to prove over this distance but her lone route try to date came in a slow-paced race and she wound up rating at the back of the pack after getting bumped at the start. PSALMODY had the right trip in her first start for this trainer at Saratoga and came out second-best after taking over the lead in the stretch; good fit here with the tactical speed to overcome the outside draw.

SIXTH RACE

MOSHAHER was no match for stakes horses in her final two starts in Dubai but she was a pretty impressive winner on debut while showing speed to strongly track the pace, before powering to the lead and getting away in the stretch; has speed in a field that may not be run at a fast pace, but has to be ready off the bench. OFF THE RECORD did get a good trip first time out but gets credit for cutting the corner and gamely coming through on the rail to take over on that sloppy track; ran well again last time when firing to the lead and just failing to hold for 3rd vs. a much stronger field. UNDER A SPELL ran well in his career debut when favored over the talented Magnum Moon, then returned from a layoff and won off with a 78 Beyer at Delaware; hasn’t improved in his three subsequent starts, but also hasn’t sprinted on fast dirt since.

SEVENTH RACE

COMPLIANT lacked early interest in his Monmouth debut, which was taken by repeat winner Epic Bromance, but he appeared to figure things out late in that game and was finishing up with interest in that spot; threat to really build off that run as he adds blinkers. MR. ALEC also debuted at Monmouth for a top trainer and he gave game chase to a well-bet firster before falling just short at the end; like the top one, he has to step forward, but he appears to have some ability. Been trying TIBERIUS MERCURIUS at prices since his good effort off a difficult trip second time out and he has continued to go well without winning; couldn’t really find the excuse for him last time but he ran well again while only second-best.

EIGHTH RACE

DREAM BIGGER was bet first time out and ran the kind of race that would win most state-bred MSW heats while still looking a bit green in the stretch, but was unfortunate to bump into a very good horse in Tiz the Law (90 Beyer); going to be tough if running even close to as well in his second start. HARRIS BAY by a sire off to a 1 for 28 start with his juvenile first time starters, but there is some quality on the bottom of this pedigree for a trainer who can win first time out. BLUES CITY had speed in a fast-paced race first time out then improved off the layoff last time when racing greenly against maiden claimers; needs to come forward again.

NINTH RACE

LEAKY CUP has to prove it on this surface but wanted a new face and he exits a big effort over a sloppy track at Saratoga last month when powering to the front and never giving that field a chance; Central Banker wins with 12% of his turf runners and this dam did post both career wins on turf. DOWSE’S BEACH the clear horse to beat with the back class and coming off back to back wins at Saratoga; still find him hard to trust but he has run well in his last couple of starts and has won three times over this distance in his career. DISCRETIONARY MARQ was no match for DOWSE’S BEACH last time while showing speed but he won off the layoff for this trainer and he broke his maiden over this course and distance as a 3yo; doesn’t need the lead to be effective.

TENTH RACE

FEAR has plenty of back class to be hard on this field and he returned from a layoff to defeat a better field over this course and distance with an 88 Beyer; giving him the chance to rebound after catching yielding ground at Saratoga last time. BANANA THIEF had a bit of a trip when finishing behind FEAR in his first start of the year and he has come back to just miss in his last two starts vs. better; tough with this class drop. DALARNA exits a career-best effort when last seen at Tampa wiring a field with a 94 Beyer, but he has never sprinted in his career and this is a difficult transition to make on turf; new gelding may just be prepping off the layoff.