ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, HY DOLLFACE

FIRST RACE

As we write this Friday morning, the weather forecast for the next week is rain, rain, and then some more rain. Throw in tropical storm Humberto and the chances of turf racing today are slim. We will H-cap with that in mind. OUR PRINCE gets in light and and has Evangeline speed. With a good break, this gelding can find the front end where an early breather awaits. COURAGEOUSLUKE just ran better and it came in an off the turf affair. This filly has tactical speed and that should help his trip as there isn’t that much pace in this race. Those Evangeline foes are tougher than you think plus he goes second time this track. EL QUERETANO would be tough if this stays on. He has some upside so there is that. A slow start hurt in his debut but he still beat a few home while his second start on the weeds was better.

SECOND RACE

SHARETHEBLAME ran a Beyer top only three back and it came here on a sloppy Joe track. What if this colt is just better around one turn? If this stays on, this colt is bred to love the grass and didn’t run all that bad versus stakes foes four back. JUST US will be a good price. He has worked four times since his maiden breaker. This barn is 25% with their repeating winners and this gelding did cost 40K. NOON TIME GEM is feeling great. He ran a Beyer top last out when facing first time winners and now goes third off the layoff. YODEL E. A. WHO will take a lot of money due to recent 90 Beyer. Lone wet track try was a W. Works are bullets and for a good barn but we just can’t shake our gut feeling that this gelding digresses.

THIRD RACE

NEWMANS FAST GIRL catches a race with zero speed. If Reyes sends, then this filly should be quickest. Sure, she can stalk if needed but we would rather have an early breather. She didn’t beat much two back as the chalk but it was on the wet. Her most recent on the grass was better and we think this filly is feeling great right now. MAMBO DANCER has some tactical speed and does draw inside our top pick. Her Beyer top came three back on a wet track. MISS MARIU goes from a 2% barn to a 30% barn which is also 48% off the claim. She owns a recent work but race flow works against.

FOURTH RACE

GONEASAGIRLCANGET was buried on the rail in her debut and then ran evenly. All in all, that was a promising debut. There is zero speed in this race and this filly draws inside. She should love the extra distance. DINNER AT FIVE might be the speed. Someone has to be, right? Even running style bodes well for added distance. Turf breeding is OK if this stays on. MADAME BOURBON is the one to beat if this stays on. She went favored last out but was hooked every step of the way. She probably learned a lot from that race.

FIFTH RACE

HALF HEROINE has some tactical speed in a race with no speed. She might not find the front end but she won’t be far behind whomever does. We think handicappers will dismiss those Evangeline lines hence a good price for those that believe. We have already seen some EvD shippers come here and run well. We think new barn has already improved this filly while previous conditioner was winning at only 4% (an unlucky four percent but

still). DUDE’S SECRET broke seventh of eight in her return try but showed some speed two back. She draws nicely and was trying better before the long layoff. UPSY DAISY DO is a horse with some tactical speed and adds a half furlong. Current form is more than acceptable but not so sure about the price. JUST MARITZA is by a 6% debut sire. Her dam went 19-1-0-2 and earned 18K. This is her first foal to race. LADY NOELA is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0. One of two sibs won (multiple winner of 51K).

SIXTH RACE

IL FARAONE gets good race flow if this comes off. Current form is fine. We love the class jump. CHIRPING didn’t break well in his most recent but won easily anyway. Sure, getting an early breather helped. If he runs today then that means this came off the grass but there should still be good pace. That’s fine as this feel good runners can stalk if needed. INDEPENDENT WORKER draws inside and is feeling good. Here is another Evangeline shipper so the price will entice. This gelding wants this to stay on. The rail draw is key for a stalking trip.

SEVENTH RACE

BLACK HOPE is by a 20% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam was un-raced. Two of four sibs won but one was winless in England. Lots and lots of works and for a barn that shows a flat bet profit with first time starters in maiden claimers. BACANO is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 39-3-8-4 and banked 16K. This is her first foal to race. Works are perfect and we like this post for a debut. FRIENDLY WAGER ran well in his debut and has every right to improve second time racing. We don’t see a recent work though. MACHO D’ORO is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 24-3-2-4 and earned 99K. This is her first foal to race. TRINNI ENERGY is by a 0 for 10 debut sire. His dam went 11-2-0-3 and earned 103K. One of two sibs won but only once. POZNAN is by a 0 for 7 debut sire. His dam went 19-2-0-1 and earned 12K. Lone sib is 33-4-5-3 and earned 54K (won 2YO debut). JEFE GRANDE is by a 0 for 3 debut sire. His dam went 37-8-10-3 and earned 155K. Lone sib is 8-0-0-0.

EIGHTH RACE

BIT COIN QUEEN is fresh speed and that is often the best speed whether dirt or turf. Class drop is the great equalizer. ALGODONAL is popular early in her career as she has already been claimed twice. New barn is 43% off the claim. We like the short layoff and solid works. We think this filly is good no matter the surface. CATNIP KITTEN is another that is capable rain or shine and that is due to even running style and nice breeding (especially the turf).

NINTH RACE

There is some pace in this race but we still think that LAWYER DRILL can steal this. He stretches out today and has won on a wet track. That try four back is what we want today. What if this gelding just hates the grass? Not sure what happened last out other than being 7 back after a half mile. TOTONO is the inside speed. This gelding passed runners in his most recent so that is an option if someone is just quicker. That was a nice wet track effort three back. Added distance sharpens speed? Tough call that were not going to touch. ZAMAN had every reason to regress in his most recent but instead he finished a solid second versus first time winners. Maybe, just maybe, that 63 winning Beyer two back wasn’t a fluke. Win rider returns.

TENTH RACE

HY DOLLFACE is just good. We like this horse on any surface. This filly responds well to Rendon. If this stays on, then this filly gets great race flow as there is so much pace in here. If this comes off, and some of the speeds declare out, then she won’t be that far off the early pace. She is 2 for 2 on an off track. R NEXT ROLL is always quick but now comes in off a layoff so perhaps that sharpens her speed that much more. If anyone is the speed of the speed then it is this one. ABUELA’S LOVE is just good. She gets in light and draws outside. Turf breeding is good if this stays on. Main knock is if other speeds floats her on the turn.

ELEVENTH RACE

REAGAN’S ROSE has the best speed and therefore can steal this. She draws outside and that helps her crack anyone who might want an early pace chat. A wet track is fine. Lone mile try came six back and she won at 3-1 while battling on the front end all the way around the track. PERSPIRE won’t be that far off the early pace and goes third off the layoff. What if she just needed that race two back off the layoff? She is 3 for 4 going a flat mile and two came here. Recent 81 Beyer ties for best last race figure. SOPHIA IS AN ANGEL goes second time with new barn and sheds the blinkers. We can easily toss her return try but maybe it helps today’s price. She has worked three times since said return try.

TWELFTH RACE

Difficult to like this race so the ALL button is our friend. BIG ANNIE has some upside and might prefer the dirt if this comes off. Tactical speed helps the trip. AND I KNOW just ran better on this green. Grinding style might bode well for two turns. VICTIM has decent turf breeding if this stays on. She did show some speed just before the layoff.