ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, CATOCA

FIRST RACE

On paper this looks like a two-horse race between DARPA and OBJECTIVE. The former comes off a strong rallying 2nd, beaten by just a head, in a race like this at DMR Aug. 28, finishing far clear of the rest (8 1/2 lengths). She’s worked strongly since. OBJECTIVE stalked, surged to the lead vs. more expensive routing on turf at DMR Aug. 25 but quickly ran out of gas, ending up 8th. She takes a significant drop, moves to dirt and sprinting. While daddy Super Saver won the G1 Ky. Derby he gets more than his fair share of good dirt sprinters. Top trainer O’Neill also adds blinkers. CHIC CLEMENTINE found 870-yard foes too sharp here Sept. 8. She gets more ground which might help, and also moves back in vs. females only after facing males.

SECOND RACE

SAMURAI CHARM dueled before tiring to end up 3rd in her debut at DMR. Aug. 17. However, not only did she duel and not only was that her debut, it came for 3 times this tag. So, she can benefit from that outing and today’s drop. All 6 sibs are winners including Back Seat Hero (57-6-11-10, $155K, 2 SPs), Back Seat Thrills (46-14-8-4, $220K) and Back Seat Roll (13-5-3-3, $301K, 4 SWs, 4 SPs). GOING TO VEGAS debuts with plenty of works so she appears to have a foundation for a trainer (Miller) who does quite well first time out. Her lone sib is Very Cherry (15-2-2-5, $72K). GOLD INCLUDED hasn’t really been a threat in the lane in her 4 starts, but all 4 came vs. tougher straight maidens. She takes the most significant drop in the game here and a bullet work at SA Sept. 11 encourages.

THIRD RACE

OHTANI was knocking on the door a few months ago but then posted a dud at DMR Aug. 11. He’s worked well since and it’s nice to see no big drop by sharp trainer Spawr. MONGOLIAN HERO and MONGOLIAN LEGEND beat the top pick recently, the former doing so when 3rd at DMR July 25 (OHTANI ran 4th) and the latter doing so in a race like this at DMR Aug. 11 when 2nd (OHTANI was 9th). MONGOLIAN HERO then found straight maidens too much to handle at DMR Aug. 21 so today’s drop could be key for trainer Ganbat, who also sends out MONGOLIAN LEGEND who drops after pressing the issue before ending up a well-beaten 4th for $50K at DMR Aug. 24.

FOURTH RACE

FULL OF LUCK came from South America with a gaudy reputation but was unable to duplicate that form while getting a number of graded stakes tries last year and this spring. He dropped a bunch in for $40K at DMR July 18, was claimed by Miyadi, ran poorly on turf at DMR Sept. 1 and takes a big drop here. Maybe this change of altitude classwise can get him headed the right way. There’s a sense of urgency for him to show more in SoCal or he may have to go back to GG, the site of his best U.S. race (ran 1st there March 16). ROCKO’S WHEEL loomed a big threat in a race like this at DMR Aug. 14 but faded in the lane to end up 5th. That was just his 2nd start after 15 months off so he’s eligible to improve. BELLERIN an 2nd in that same Aug. 14 race after pressing the issue from the start. Eurton saw fit to claim him and the 5yo gelding’s speed can have him forwardly placed from the start.

FIFTH RACE

CATOCA looked good winning a race like this here July 4. She then tried turf and tougher at DMR Aug. 2 to no avail. She’s back to a track she likes and a level that works for him so she’s better situated here. QAFILAH stalked and ran 3rd to CATOCA in that aforementioned July 4 race here so she handles this place and fits. She came right back to gamely win on GG turf Aug. 24 so she’s doing well. That solid July 4 3rd here was her only start on dirt so she handles it. LUCKY PERIDOT finished with good energy to be 2nd in a tough turf route at DMR Sept. 2. She drops and returns to dirt and you’ll note a monster maiden win at this trip in her only prior start here (14 lengths).

SIXTH RACE

ACKER is a proven distance aficionado and while the bulk of his work and success has come on turf he has handled dirt well so he’s not out of his element here. His tactical speed can have him forwardly placed from the start. ZESTFUL comes here on a tear having won 5 straight. That includes 2 wins on GG synthetic, a win on GG turf, a win on PLN dirt and a win on DMR turf so he handles any footing. Speed is his main weapon so he’s the one to catch. It’s his first time going 10fs but note a big wire-to-wire win going 12fs on GG turf a few months ago. SOUL BEAM lagged back before finishing strongly to be 4th on turf at DMR Aug. 24, beaten less than a length. He moves to a new, longer trip and dirt but is bred to go long and he’s won on dirt so in no way is he out of his element here.

SEVENTH RACE

MISS BENNET not only takes a huge drop in price, she goes from open to restricted company as well, accentuating the drop. Of course, they don’t give anything away out here but if she’s the same gal she was in her last 2 dirt outings she beat these. SECRET MANEUVER kept to her task to be 3rd vs. much more expensive when last seen, though that won’t make those who made her the 9-10 favorite that day feel any better. Trouble is, ‘when last seen’ was Dec. 30 so there’s a long layoff to consider. She’s worked well and her only prior try here was quite good. SHEZA KATHY looked super blasting maidens in her debut at ELK Aug. 30. She faces winners for the first time and new surroundings but there’s obviously talent here.

EIGHTH RACE

TOTALLY TIGER stalked the pace and kept to his task well to be a decent 3rd in his debut at DMR Aug. 2. That run shows talent, he can benefit from that outing and it’s most encouraging Bejarano sees fit to ride. Trainer Lerner has made the most of his 2nd-time starters (2 for last 6, 33%). SHINNY debuts with plenty of works including some brisk ones for O’Neill, who has good debutwin numbers. SOLAR NATION is another firster who has shown talent in the a.m. including 3 recent bullets, all coming here.

NINTH RACE

COMPETING may be back on track as the gelding blasted cheaper foes on the ‘smaller’ track here Aug. 25. Azcarate saw fit to claim him and bumps him in price. He broke his maiden on this ‘big’ track so he handles this layout. ALL ABOUT TRUMP stalked the pace and kept to his task to be 2nd to a runaway winner vs. more expensive open foes. That run shows he handles this place and he drops in price and goes from open to restricted company. JOHANN’S COMMAND ran on smartly to win a race like this here June 30. He pressed the issue before giving way vs. more expensive open foes at DMR. Aug. 14 but today’s drop in price, return to face restricted company and return to this place could get him back on track.