ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SMOOTH WITH A KICK FIRST RACE

TEODORO was run down by SPORTSWEAR in his debut over jumps then posted back to back blowout wins after bolting to the front in his next two starts; dangerous right out in front once again. SPORTSWEAR was a maiden on the flat but has taken to jumping, winning both starts so far, including a game win over the much-improved TEODORO; threat looking to keep his undefeated jumps record intact. CHIEF JUSTICE won four of his last eight in Europe prior to shipping over and rallied too late in his stateside debut when finishing 4th; dangerous if he can build off that effort.

SECOND RACE

BLUES CITY showed speed first time out and was chasing a fast pace in a race that ultimately fell apart and went to closers, then dropped in class in his first start for this trainer and rallied into a good setup for 2nd while racing a bit greenly; can use his speed from the rail in this spot and is eligible to improve again. Understand why KATAMA BAY debuted on turf considering his female family, but Flatter is not a strong turf influence so this colt may benefit from the surface switch as he drops right away; Cox 5 for his last 12 with 2yo maidens moving from turf to dirt in their second career start (42%, $2.30 ROI). LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE brought $200k in March and has a nice pedigree being from a stakes-winning dam who has dropped nine winners so far, including Grade 1 turf winner Time and Motion; debuts for a tag over a tough distance but doesn’t meet a strong field.

THIRD RACE

SMOOTH WITH A KICK has much to prove still but willing to give her another chance while hoping she gets a fast track for only the second time since her debut back in February; won easily over fast dirt two back and may have been compromised by racing down on the rail over that sloppy track last time. OFF TOPIC dropping out of four straight graded stakes tries, most recently when caught wide throughout the Alabama over ten furlongs; doesn’t have quick acceleration but has shown the ability to race close to the pace recently and distance in no problem for her. TAKE CHARGE AUBREY third off the layoff looking to improve after failing to made a serious impact in her first two starts as a 4yo; three-time winner earned a couple of figures last year that will make her tough in this spot, one of those when winning over this track and trip in the mud, and she has the speed to be a forward factor from the start.

FOURTH RACE

GOLCONDA sprinted four times in France as a 2yo and came away with two wins and two seconds, and she made her first two starts over here in stakes company while landing in races that developed slowly in front of her; getting significant class relief for this for a trainer off to a good start at the meet. FACTORING has yet to make an impact in three starts so far this year but the two turf starts have come vs. allowance rivals and she was a winner the last time she sprinted on turf vs. claiming company; has the back races to contend here as she gets needed class relief. DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS weakened on the stretch out last time but she has been right there at the wire in each turf sprint starts at around this level this year; closer needs a little pace but will be running late.

FIFTH RACE

QUIET OUT EAST has started on turf only once this year, that back in June when just missing at the end after slight early trouble and a wide move to the stretch; willing to give him a chance back on grass as he faces a group that has been disappointing lately in this condition. KLICKITAT looked like a work in progress when figuring things out late in his career debut last October, which was his only turf start as a 2yo; lost position coming to the stretch off the layoff, before rallying to just miss in a blanker finish, then failed to make a real impact when taking a step back last time; remains with potential and can take the necessary step forward as he adds lasix for the first time. WAYNES FOOTSTEPS has hit the board in all four

turf starts to date without winning and he had no excuse last time after making all the pace and holding on to the late stages, before running run down by a longshot; has improved his figures in his two starts as a 3yo and can get another favorable trip here.

SIXTH RACE

CRACK SHOT was off the layoff when falling to a pair of longshots in his 3yo and turf debut, then bumped into a sharp debut winner in his second start (Call Me Harry returned to win again with an 88 Beyer later in the Saratoga meet); took charge of the pace last time and held off the talented filly Lead Guitar (returned to win her next start, also with an 88 Beyer) ahead of three other next out winners; looks loose on the lead once again as he steps up off the maiden win. BOURBON MISSION returned to turf off the claim two back and kept in range of the pace before proving to be no match for a good winner closing in the stretch; wound up last on the outside in his kost recent start, before finishing gamely to just miss second behind the aforementioned Call Me Harry. THREE OUTLAWS had a good pace in front of him when rallying for a piece in his turf debut off the layoff, then got stuck wide throughout and tired in an excusable effort behind BOURBON MISSION in his next start; back to turf off the claim and picks up Rosario.

SEVENTH RACE

IRISH DANZING debuted at the end of the Saratoga meet and scored impressively while finishing up with a strong run after tracking the early pace; steps right up giving away valuable experience to her main rivals but she earned a competitive figure for that first-out score and has the speed to keep the projected pace in range. FIERCE LADY was a sharp debut winner with a strong 87 Beyer then was being prepped for a sale and wasn’t able to back that race up in the Stillwater; returned to form last time to close down Time Limit after getting bumped at the start to wind up off the pace and three wide, before making a game run to close her down; horse to beat from a nice outside draw. NAKED AVENGER had a lot go her way when sitting in behind a contested pace and getting plenty of room inside for the stretch run, before kicking clear of a badly drifting Jewel of Arabia, but that kind of tactical speed can serve her well again in this spot, and she will be a price.

EIGHTH RACE

DANZING DUNHILL is by a sire in Twirling Candy who wins with 20% of his juvenile first time starters and 16% of his turf runners, and he is the first foal from his unraced dam, who is a sister to turf winners Edison and Graceful Heart; has enough pedigree to be successful under this conditions first time out for Weaver, who is more than capable with first time starters. FAME TO FAMOUS was finishing gamely in his debut before getting shut off trying to split horses late and losing his best chance, and he had no chance with Decorated Invader last time while again finishing gamely to just miss 2nd; horse to beat. THEITALIANAMERICAN is twice stakes-placed sprinting on dirt while displaying a running style that doesn’t lead to a lot of success in 2yo sprints on the main track; tries turf as he steps back into the maiden ranks and stretches out for the first time.